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Sunday, January 1

1st Jan - 2012 Special

First some new additions, followed by links from my earlier blog posts. Stuff that I add in the future will go to the bottom of the post. This post is updated as new stuff comes along.

- MoreLiver

16 Of Wall Street's Sharpest Minds Predict Where Stocks Are Headed In 2012BI
Extreme Predictions 2012naked capitalism
The comment from the readers are very good.

2012 – leadership wanted, not followershipJohn Redwood
Trying to make policy and govern by the guiding lights of polls is not a good model. The worst kind of such approaches could best be called followership.

I Just Got Here, but I Know Trouble When I See ItNYT
Six economists (Thaler, Shiller, Mankiw, Frank, Cowen, Romer) give their views

The road ahead: bull & bear caseHumble Student of the Markets
Europe has gone from avoiding the imminent heart attack to a lingering but treatable cancer… I believe that market's focus will shift from Europe to the other regions of the world in 2012.

Words And Phrases I Hope Not To See Or Hear in 2012TF Market Advisors
Bazooka, black swan, summits…

Quiet markets as New Year approaches; What to watch in 2012Saxo

Thoughts on 2012Thomson Reuters

Ten Economic Questions for 2012Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2012: Inflation – Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2012: Monetary Policy – Calculated Risk

All I want for New Year’s …Emanuel Derman / Reuters
If you give me a choice, as a scientist or an artist, as to which kind of knowledge I’d like more of, I’ll have more intuition.

2012 will make 2011 look like a picnicFintag’s Newsletter

Political Calendar Hints at 2012 Volatility HistorySquared

Kiron Sarkar’s 2012 forecast The Big Picture

What Investors Are Thinking About 2012Forbes

Additional 2012 Predictions: Trade Wars, US Election, Precious Metals, EnergyMish’s

Things that make you go hmmm…ZH
Lookback of 2012 from the future by Grant Williams.

Doug Kass 15 Surprises of 2012EconMatters

Brace Yourself For An Eventful 2012MarketBeat / WSJ

What to expect in 2012 (and stress indicator charts)Saxo / The Trader
Risk of ECB QE, Greece falling apart, stronger USD, economy and companies slowing down.

My global macro take on 2012...Veksler’s Forex blog / Saxo

Kass: 15 surprises for 2012Pragmatic Capitalism

Mish 2012 Predictions; 2011 Year in Review with Max KeiserMish’s

UBS believes 2012 in Europe will not be like 2011ZH
Five reasons: ECB’s coming rate cut and QE would hurt the euro, Greece
PSI deadline 20-Mar, contagion risk to Portugal and beyond, CDS triggering, voters turning against the europrojects.

My Christmas present to you — short EurodollarsPeter Brandt
A trade idea and a lot of bullet points on what to expect in 2012.

What to Expect in 2012DealBook / NYT
Legal/Regulatory / White Collar Watch

2012 - Things that will happenBruce Krasting
predictions from wild & outrageous to common sense & inevitable

A Doomsday View of 2012James Petras
All indications point to 2012 being a turning point year of unrelenting economic crises spreading outward from Europe and the US to Asia and its dependencies in Africa and Latin America.

30 big ideas for 2012 and beyondFidelity

Cop Logic for 2012Interloper
Europe and China are gonna be worse, and ‘cop logic’ dictates U.S. and stocks will follow.

Perspectives - Special edition 2012Pictet

Morgan Stanley On Why 2012 Will Be The "Payback" For Three Years Of "Miracles" And A US Earnings RecessionZH
Think of 2012 as the “payback” year….when many of the extraordinary things that happened over the past 3 years go in reverse. I am talking about incremental fiscal stimulus, a weaker US dollar, positive labor productivity, and accelerated capital spending.

UBS' Top Ten Surprises For 2012 ZH
The consensus is right, financials outperform, euro rallies, oil drops below $70/barrel, sovereign default…outside the Eurozone, US 10-year Treasury yields break out, an Italian sovereign upgrade, an E(M)U exit, fewer than five governments switch hands, Britain does great.

Outrageous Predictions Saxo Bank
The annual out-of-the-box special, read it at the link or see the video or download the pdf

2012 Investment Predictions & Outlooks List for Pragmatic Capitalism
Huge list, classified on asset classes.  

Vampire Squid Watch: 4 Scary Economic Trends for 2012The Big Picture
Euro back-door bailout, political finance, pathological corporate leadership.

The Dismal Outlook for 2012The Big Picture
euro, gold, bonds, stocks, China

Prediction Addiction: 2012 EditionCapital Spectator
Linked views for major asset classes.

Volatility Outlook 2012The Trader
JPM: short skew, short correlation and short convexity bias, as these metrics are all currently expensive. 

Nomura: 7 key calls for 2012Pragmatic Capitalism 

Back to fundamentals in 2012Humble Student of the Markets 

Question #8 for 2012: Europe and the EuroCalculated Risk
If the Greek debt deal is reached, and some sort of carrot (growth agenda, eurobond roadmap) is offered to the suffering countries, maybe Europe and the euro will make it through 2012… There is a strong commitment by policymakers to the euro, but at some point, without some perceived carrots, the political consensus will eventually disintegrate, and Europe will come apart. 

Question #7 for 2012: State and Local GovernmentsCalculated Risk
there was a debate last year if there would be a large number of muni defaults in 2011. One analyst predicted "hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults". I disagreed strongly with that prediction, and the total defaults was only a small fraction of that number. With improving finances, the threat of a huge number of muni defaults is even less likely in 2012.

2012 could be the year Germany lets the euro dieEvans-Pritchard / The Telegraph
It must either immolate itself, accepting a debt union and internal inflation to save a currency it never wanted and doesn't love; or opt instead to uphold fiscal sovereignty and the essence of its own democracy, and let the Project die.

Morgan Stanley Issues Shocker With First 2012 Forecast: Says S&P Will Close Year At 1167, Sees Consensus As Too OptimisticZH

Global Bond Issuance To Top A Staggering $8 Trillion In 2012ZH
Nice graphs and analysis from S&P and other sources.

Will the global economy finally recover in 2012?The Curious Capitalist / TIME
All of this adds up to a 2012 potentially uglier than 2011. All eyes will remain fixed, first and foremost, on Europe and its debt crisis. The U.S.presidential election and the political turmoil in the Middle East, Russia and elsewhere will also be on watch. 
Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation WatchEconbrowser
What is the market’s expectation on the inflation outlook.

2012: The PredictableThe Big Picture
All that can be predicted accurately is repeated behavior and trends will continue until some force is impaired on them: Merkozy meet, end-of month & expiry date manipulation, hedge funds crowding in same stocks, deficits increase etc etc.

Look on the bright side of 2012alphaville / FT
BoAML lists some positives, as the general mood for 2012 is so dark.

Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment RateCalculated Risk 

Question #5 for 2012: EmploymentCalculated Risk

Question #4 for 2012: U.S. Economic GrowthCalculated Risk