20th Jan - Treaty treats

Greek negotiation flowchart by BNP, source WSJ

Here's a shorter morning post: last night's Croatian warning basically ate up all the good material.

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To the links:

News roundup morning – BTH

News roundup – The Trader

Press digests by Reuters: FT, British, WSJ, NYT

Market preview – Saxo

Daily – Danske (pdf)

Morning Briefing – BNY Mellon 
  A PSI deal is far from being the beginning of the end to the Greek and broader Euro-zone crisis

FX option vols – Saxo

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

EURO CRISIS

Future EU bail-outs only for treaty signatories, new draft says – euobserver.com

Giving in to a German demand on the issue, the text - seen by EUobserver - says: "Granting of assistance in the framework of new programmes under the European Stability Mechanism [ESM] will be conditional, as of 1 March 2013, on the ratification of this treaty

What Comes Next In the Greek Debt Talks – MarketBeat / WSJ

The market is still generally priced for a deal to be reached. Expectations are that by Monday we’ll know the deets. However, as with everything else about the European debt crisis, it ain’t really over till it’s over.

The EU fiscal draft treaty: in full – The Telegraph

EMERGING

HSBC Flash China PMI Contracts – Global Macro Monitor

The third consecutive below-50 reading of the manufacturing PMI suggested that growth is likely to moderate further… We expect more policy easing to stabilise growth

Hungary: Orban caves in on central bank independence – Danske (pdf)

Government will scrap plans to merge the financial regulator PSZAF and the Hungarian central bank (MNB). This effectively means that the Hungarian government has caved into the demands of the IMF and the European Commission and now seems to be guaranteeing the independence of the central bank. 

Emerging Markets Briefer / Jan 2012 – Danske (pdf)

Surprisingly sunny dawn of 2012 – let’s see if it continues

EMEA Weekly – Danske (pdf)

Turkish and Hungarian rate decisions dominate the next week

DIVERSION

Think Quarterly – Google

The Speed Issue

Into the mind of a Neanderthal – New Scientist

What would have made them laugh? Or cry? Did they love home more than we do? Meet the real Neanderthals

My Life in Finance – Eugene F. Fama / SSRN

I was invited by the editors to contribute a professional autobiography for the Annual Review of Financial Economics.