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Tuesday, May 20

20th May - Negative tones played

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Stalin-Mao Roles Reverse as Putin Courts China InvestmentBB
Putin is looking to cement ties with China as the conflict in Ukraine alienates him from the U.S. and its European allies. The relationship with China, Russia’s biggest trading partner after the two-way volume surged sevenfold in the past decade to $94 billion last year, is becoming even more important as escalating sanctions threaten to tip the economy into recession.

Deutsche Bank Is Asking a Lot of People for MoneyView / BB

The Eurozone Recovery and Household Savingsmainly macro
The Eurozone appears to have already had its growth boost from declines in the savings ratio: it helped moderate the size of the 2012 recession…Is there anything else that could provide the basis for a strong recovery? 

European Parliament elections: a final look at the pollsEuropp / LSE
While Eurosceptic parties are predicted to significantly increase their representation, the race between the European People’s Party and the Party of European Socialists to hold the largest number of seats is still too close to call.

What happens next after the European elections? Open Europe
With the European elections taking place on Thursday through to Sunday this week, it is worth considering what happens next. The proposed Spitzenkandidaten or European Parliamentary families’ candidates for European Commission President is set to make the post-election horse-trading and politicking more fraught than usual.

Spain’s lack of openly Eurosceptic partiesEuropp / LSE
The idea of Europe still remains powerful for Spanish citizens

ECB's Mersch says chances for June action grown substantiallyReuters
There were increasing signs on Monday that the European Central Bank will add more stimulus to the euro zone economy at its June policy meeting as inflation remains stuck at very low levels.

Where could ECB interest rates go?Money Matters

Combatting the Crunch: ECB Plans Negative Rate on Bank DepositsSpiegel
When it meets on June 6, SPIEGEL has learned, the European Central Bank may implement a negative interest rate for financial institutions seeking to park their money at the Frankfurt powerhouse. The move is aimed at spurring loans.

The Greek Bond DumpBB
Investors might want to ask themselves just how confident they are that the rally in European bonds that has driven yields to record lows is sustainable.

Italian Bad Loans Surge 26% YoY To Record High (59th Month In A Row)ZH
Peripheral European Bond Risk Surges To 2-Month HighsZH

Fed's super-easy policies pose risks, officials sayReuters
The Federal Reserve's super-easy policies, if pursued for too long, could have adverse consequences in the long run, two top Fed officials said on Monday, although the biggest risk is not runaway inflation.

Bernanke says no need for Fed to shrink balance sheetReuters
The Federal Reserve does not need to shrink its $4 trillion-plus balance sheet by even "a dime" for it to normalize monetary policy when the time comes, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said on Monday.

Fed won't allow inflation upon exit: WilliamsReuters
The Federal Reserve is actively testing tools to raise rates when needed, and has a plan to exit its extraordinarily easy policies that will allow it to do so without sparking inflation, a top Fed official said on Monday.

Plosser: Fundamentals of U.S. Housing Market Remain SoundWSJ

Fed’s Dudley: No One Can Say When the First Rate Increase Will BeWSJ

Fed's Dudley: Expect Long Run Fed Funds Rate to be well below the 4¼ percent average level with 2 percent inflationCalculated Risk

Dudley: Three Reasons Why Housing’s Recovery Will Be SlowerWSJ

'This is not a coup' says Thai army, as martial law declaredReuters
Thailand's army declared martial law nationwide on Tuesday to restore order after six months of street protests that have left the country without a proper functioning government, but denied that the surprise move amounted to a military coup.

USDJPY at riskGlobal Macro Trading
Like most macro assets, the USDJPY cross has frustrated consensus this year. To some extent, this isn’t surprising.

Emerging Markets Briefer - May 2014Danske Bank

EM Bond Snapshot - May 2014Danske Bank

Dollar Bid, but Relationships BreakdownMarc to Market

Grand Central WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Follow the Stable Dots * Fed’s Williams Says First Rate Hike Is Likely In Second Half Of 2015 * ECB’s Mersch Says Probability of June Action Has Risen Considerably * Australia Central Bank: Rates Likely To Stay Low For Some Time * Monetary Easing in China? Don’t Hold Your Breath

Macro HorizonsWSJ
Absent Pipeline Inflation to Keep Policy Easy, Bond Yields Low

Haluatko todella samaan liittovaltioon Välimeren maiden kanssa?Toimi Kankaanniemi / US

Pääomakontrollit, protektionismi ja muutenkin impivaaraaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Nokia ja Suomen tuottavuusRoger Wessman