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Thursday, May 8

8th May - Special: ECB Meeting


Introductory statement to the press conferenceECB
Draghi Fails to Say Anything New, Status Quo PersistsMarc to Market
Unsolicited advice does not really amount to a threat to the ECB independence or its credibility. The thing that hurts ECB credibility in the eyes of many investors is the talking without action.

Live: When Will the ECB Move?WSJ

EUR Soars Then Plunges On ECB Inactivity But Promise Of Future ActivityZH

Draghi says ECB poised to shore up economy as soon as JuneReuters
ECB is ready to take action next month to boost the euro zone economy if price inflation forecasts warrant it, its president said on Thursday, cautioning countries against pressuring the bank into action.

Draghi Ready to Cut Rates in June as Euro Hurts OutlookBB
Draghi signaled that officials are ready to cut interest rates next month if needed and stepped up his expressions of concern about the euro’s exchange rate.

Draghi Keeps Rates on Hold as ECB Waits for Price SignalsBB

ECB promises to cut in JuneDanske Bank

5 Takeaways From Mario Draghi’s May Press ConferenceWSJ

Draghi gave the clearest indication yet that action could be imminent. For now, he’s left all interest rates on hold, but in a development that halted the euro’s rise in its tracks, he’s now said the bank’s decision-makers are “comfortable” with acting next time.

Beecroft: Why the ECB could cut rates to minus 1% - TradingFloor
The ECB is so concerned about the foreign exchange rate it could cut its deposit rate to minus one percent. That's one of the predictions from Saxo's Nick Beecroft, who senses a major shift in sentiment at the top of the European Central Bank.

ECB preview: Why Mario will keep his powder dryTradingFloor

Is the ECB really so generous?Money Matters

ECB Decision Day Guide From Negative Rates to Liquidity MeasuresBB

ECB Preview: May is Too Early for ActionWSJ

Draghi’s Euro Angst Rising as Rally to $1.40 PummelsBB

The ECB must - and can – actBruegel
By coyly debating the definition and likelihood of deflation, while hoping for a renewal of inflation, the ECB is ignoring increasing risks, especially the growing cracks in the Italian fault line… The ECB may already have waited too late. Even if it were to finally act, its past delays may render its actions and 

Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s Shopping ListBruegel
Think Tank Sees Workaround for ECB Bond BuysWSJ
Inflation forecasts by the ECB have fallen substantially below the two percent threshold. It was a mistake that the ECB did not act earlier. Conventional policy measures are unlikely to change inflation dynamics substantially. The ECB therefore needs to start buying assets. We propose to buy €35bn per months of a portfolio of ESM/EFSF/EU/EIB bonds, corporate bonds, and ASB. Buying international securities is not advisable as it would be against international commitments (full 25-page pdf-document).

ECB seen on hold as inflation picks up, QE a way offReuters
ECB will likely hold off policy action on Thursday, waiting for new forecasts from its staff in June before deciding whether to counter low inflation that ticked up last month.

Draghi Grapples With Money Markets Showing Revival Too SoonBB
Draghi may need to take action to stop money-market investors getting ahead of themselves.

Goldman Sachs’s Take on this Week’s ECB MeetingWSJ

A Glance at the ECB’s DashboardWSJ

Why European QE Will Not Help (In 2 Simple Charts)ZH

ECB Preview: Wait-and-see until JuneDanske Bank
Mario Draghi will sound dovish as inflation was below ECB’s expectation again in April, but the Governing Council should refrain from action at least until the release of updated projections in June.

ECB outlook: Words, words, wordsNordea
Soft words and an easing bias but not rate cuts or anything more drastic like QE (chart pack).

Draghi ABS Plan Seen Helping Banks, Not BusinessBB

Weekly Focus: ECB hesitatesDanske Bank
Rising money market rates and a stronger euro are probably not enough to prompt a rate cut or other easing measures at this week’s ECB meeting, although we cannot rule this out

Viikkokatsaus: EKP ja BoE odottavatNordea
Tällä viikolla: EKP ja BoE kokoustavat * Joko Suomen vienti kasvaa? Viime viikolla: Euroalueen inflaatio nopeutui * Fed pienensi jälleen ostojaan * USA:n BKT Q1:llä odotettua heikompi

Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB Bond-Purchases UnlikelyBB
Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.

The ECB betting on "creditless" recoverySober Look
Of course Japan too had a "creditless" recovery - until it didn't. But let's not make such silly comparisons.

ECB's empty toolbox makes it look the other wayTradingFloor
The macroeconomic environment in Europe is screaming out for further policy action but the only thing that would work is fixing the banks. As no-one wants to do that, the ECB is pretending the banks are OK, and that will not fix anything.