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Sunday, May 4

4th May - W/E: Europe & US

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round up 26 April – 2 MayEuropp / LSE
Commission candidates, Ukraine, and do we really need professional economists?

The Eurozone: out of the ashes?mainly macro

Finance ministers should act with the ECB on low inflationBruegel

Nigel Farage's UKIP Takes Clear Lead In EU Election PollsZH

Stress tests for European banks: Shock therapyThe Economist

Draghi ABS Plan Seen Helping Banks, Not BusinessBB

Press release Troika Statement on 12th Review Mission to PortugalECB
…and the statement

Press release Troika Statement first post-programme surveillance mission to IrelandECB

'Mission accomplished' as Portugal passes last bailout reviewReuters
Portugal's economy has passed a final review by its EU and IMF lenders, paving the way for a smooth exit from its 78 billion euro bailout program this month, the country's deputy prime minister and creditors said on Friday.

Portugal to Say May 4 If It Follows Ireland in ExitBB

Europe's "Recovery" Leaves 25% Of Spanish, Greek Workforce UnemployedZH

EU Commissioner Warns "Any 'Sensible' Person Should Oppose Further Sanctions"ZH

Ukraine Crisis A Tightrope Walk for German BusinessesSpiegel
As Moscow continues to escalate the situation in Ukraine, public and political pressure is turning against German companies who do business with Russia. The countries' economic ties make disengagement next to impossible.

War in Europe? Ukraine and the Threat of WildfireSpiegel
Following the apparent failure of the Geneva agreements, the inconceivable suddenly seems possible: the invasion of eastern Ukraine by the Russian army. Fears are growing in the West of the breakout of a new war in Europe.

Oil: Ukraine crisis can trigger oil spike and tip EU back into recessionNordea
Russia as important oil as gas supplier to Europe * Disruptions to Russian oil flows will have huge impact on oil prices * Embittered political climate, oil prices at USD 150/barrel and high financial market uncertainty can tip EU back into recession * Oil price spike and flight to safety a recipe for broad-based USD strengthening and lower global rates: three risk scenarios * US shale oil or SPR release will not prevent oil price spike

Europe’s Precarious New NormalProject Syndicate
A decade ago, ten countries joined the EU, and all – including eight post-communist states – are now recognized as fully integrated members. As an era of geopolitical tension again descends on the European continent, it is worth reminding ourselves what the new normal has meant for them – and what it could mean for Ukraine.

Ukraine’s turmoil: Chaos out of orderThe Economist

Russia’s economy: Tipping the scalesThe Economist

Side deals with Moscow thwart drive to wean Europe off Russian gasReuters

The Fed’s future management of short ratesFT

Fed seen hiking rates in June 2015 as U.S. job creation surgesReuters
Fed could start raising benchmark interest rates in just over a year, based on trading in U.S. short-term interest-rate futures after a government report showed employers added many more jobs than expected in April.

All "Rules-based" Economists Agree: Fed Policy Is Too EasyZH

Atlanta Fed Tool Suggests Full Employment Could Be Reached In Six MonthsWSJ

The most laughable US jobs report in modern memory – TradingFloor
April Payrolls: 288k, jobless rate 6.3% - FT
Solid US job growth with no sign of wage pressure yet – Danske Bank
Where The April Job Additions Were – ZH
1m people drop out of labor force, participation rate lowest since 1978 – ZH
Workers Younger Than 55 Lost 259K Jobs In April – ZH
Comments on Employment Report – Calculated Risk
April Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.3% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Hiring in U.S. Kicks Into Higher Gear as Unemployment Plunges to 6.3% - BB
Highlights from the April Jobs Report – WSJ
Economists React to April Jobs Report: ‘Quite Strong on its Face’ – WSJ
Hilsenrath: Fed Likely to Stick With Policy After Robust Jobs Report – WSJ
5 Takeaways from the April Employment Report – WSJ
Whopping 288K New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3% - dshort
Jobs report trounces expectations – Reuters
+288K jobs in April; jobless rate falls to 6.3 percent – WaPo
U.S. job growth jumps, but shrinking labor force a blemish – Reuters
Yellen Labor Gauges Show Weakness Even as Jobless Rate Plunges – BB
The hidden weakness in this month’s jobs report – WaPo
Surge in payrolls - but still food for thought for both sides of the FOMC – Nordea
Very strong April payroll report – Handelsbanken
U.S. Employment Situation – April 2014 – Global Macro Trading
Goldman Sachs on the Labor Force Participation Rate – Calculated Risk

U.S. factory orders up, durable goods revised higher – Reuters
Q1 GDP Takes Another Hit As Factory Orders Miss – ZH