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Monday, May 5

5th May - Monday Dip

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Spring 2014 forecast: Growth becoming broader-basedEC
The EU economic outlook is strengthening. While leading indicators point to GDP growth gaining momentum in the near term, the conditions for a sustained recovery in the medium term are also improving. Growth is still set to remain moderate, but a gradual easing related to deleveraging, financial fragmentation, adjustment of external imbalances and uncertainty is noticeable.

Brussels Sees Broader, Deeper EU Economic Recovery – WSJ
EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook as Inflation Seen Slower – BB
EU Sees Biggest Spain Growth Since 2007 as Budget Gap Grows – BB
Italy Economy to Expand Less Than Renzi Sees, EU Says – BB
France set to miss key deficit target: European Commission – Reuters

Portugal to Emulate Ireland in Exit From Bailout ProgramBB
Portugal will follow Ireland in leaving its rescue program without seeking a precautionary credit line, the third nation to exit its bailout as the euro region rebounds from a four-year crisis.

Mersch: Institutional overhaul of the euro area – progress and remaining challengesECB
ECB’s Mersch Thinks EU Should Consider Treaty Change Over Longer TermWSJ

Transmission of Financial Stress in EuropeIMF
The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece

EU financial transaction tax won't come before 2016: diplomatsReuters

ECB Preview: Wait-and-see until JuneDanske Bank
Mario Draghi will sound dovish as inflation was below ECB’s expectation again in April, but the Governing Council should refrain from action at least until the release of updated projections in June.

ECB outlook: Words, words, wordsNordea
Soft words and an easing bias but not rate cuts or anything more drastic like QE (chart pack).

Difficult Labor ReportTim Duy’s Fed Watch
US Employment report review: What the charts showTradingFloor

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased in April to 55.2 – Calculated Risk
ISM Services Jumps To 8-Month High But Employment Tumbles – ZH
Highest ISM Non Manufacturing Report Since August – Bespoke
ISM Non-Manufacturing: April Shows Improvement – dshort
Service sector growth accelerates in April: ISM survey – Reuters
Orders Propel U.S. Service Industries as Sales Improve – BB

Business conditions continue to deteriorate in April – Markit
China PMI Misses 6th Month In A Row As Home Sales Collapse 47% YoY – ZH
Contracts 4th Month, Employment Down 6th Month – Mish’s
China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Risk of Deeper Slowdown – BB
China factory activity shrinks in April, new export orders contract – Reuters

China: the anatomy of a slowdown FT
5 indicators pointing to persistent economic weakness in ChinaSober Look

Four Event Risks We Know about in the Week AheadMarc to Market
Yellen’s testimony, ECB meeting, China data, Ukraine

Yen Leads, Despite Tokyo Holidays on Ukraine and Soft US Bond YieldsMarc to Market

Macro Horizons: China, Ukraine Violence Sour Investor MoodWSJ

Grand Central: Fed Debate on Exit Strategy Isn’t OverWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Debate on Exit Strategy Isn’t Over * Fed’s Fisher Says Too Soon to Talk Rate Hikes * Is Full Employment Closer Than Economists Think? * EU Warns of Low Inflation Risk * China Manufacturing Data Points to Continued Weakness 

Don’t Envy the Analysts at Goldman SachsMedium
Their lifestyle is horrible, and the pay sucks too

Global Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 6-Month LowsZH

Live Blogging the Sohn Investment Conference – WSJ
Live Blog: Investors Gather for Sohn Conference – NYT
Sohn Pitchfest Is Today; Here's How They Did Last Year – ZH
Next Wave Sohn Conference Notes – Market Folly

A deep correction's on the horizon; how prepared are you?TradingFloor
The seasonal "Sell in May" effect is promising flat returns for the next five months or so. Several other factors are suggesting that this flat period could very well include a deeper market correction.

The bearish verdict from market cycle analysisHumble Student

The S&P 500 Sector QuiltA Wealth of Common Sense

Implications of All-Time-High Median Valuations (Backtest 1999 to date)Greenbackd

Miksi euroalue on ongelmissa?Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja 4/2013
Tuomas Malinen & Tero Kuusi

EU- ja euroalueiden tulevaisuus hämärän peitossaHeikki Koskenkylä / Libera
Suomalaiset: Poliitikkojen ilmoitettava kantansa Suomen eurossa pysymisestä ja sen ehdoistaLibera

Kun riskillä ei ole hintaaElina Lepomäki / US

Tyly ennuste Brysselistä: Vain Kyproksen taloudella menee Suomea huonomminTE