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Thursday, August 11

11th Aug - Russia escalates in Ukraine

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Putin Accuses Ukraine of Terror as Crimea Tensions Escalate – BB
Russia accuses Ukraine of attempted Crimea 'incursions' – BBC
Ukraine crisis escalation, why are the markets still calm? – Danske Bank

Merkel’s Government to Tighten Security After Attacks in Germany – BB

French Voters’ Fear of Terror Puts Hollande in a Political Bind – BB

Brexit harm denial and the exchange rate – Simon Wren-Lewis

Strong jobs growth will tempt the Fed to make an error – The Economist
The Fed is rethinking one thing too many – The Economist

The Dirty Little Secret of Finance: Asymmetric Information – View / BB

Fix monetary policy; there are no alternatives – Scott Sumner

Two Things I Learned Looking for Something Else – Marc Chandler

Monthly Commodities: Stabilisation followed by higher prices – ABN AMRO

Are markets efficient?Youtube
Do market prices generally reflect all available information? Or are they prone to bubbles? On this episode of The Big Question, two members of the Chicago Booth faculty—Nobel laureate Eugene F. Fama and Richard H. Thaler, the father of behavioral economics—discuss how markets behave (and misbehave). Along the way they discuss value stocks versus growth stocks, the existence of economic bubbles, and the curious case of the CUBA Fund

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Surging inflation in Norway, another hit to oil prices, more policy easing * Norwegian core inflation surprisingly high * Record-low UK bond yields following BoE mishap * NOK surged on high inflation

Morning MarketsTF
Markets had obviously expected more from the RBNZ whose 25 basis point cash rate cut send the kiwi soaring. Still isn't the breakdown of the interest rate/currency correlation just the latest in a long line of strange data sets from the zero-bound world?

Euro wrap-upDaiwa
Bunds made gains as French industrial production data surprised on the downside * Gilts also ended the day higher despite losing some ground later in the day as the BoE attracted plenty of offers for its Gilt purchase operation.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Sterling Struggles to Find a Bid, While RBNZ Can't Knock Kiwi Down

Daily ShotTF
The ongoing rally seen in Eurozone bonds is depressing yields across the continent with a great deal of EU government debt being sold at negative rates.

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
UK public places greatest emphasis on high skilled migrants as priority for immigration policy *
Italy calls for “Schengen of defence” in the wake of Brexit vote * UK house price growth hits lowest level in three years as Bank of England survey sees capital spending and hiring stalling * New poll: More voters still believe Britain was right to vote to leave the EU despite anticipated economic cost * EU Migration Commissioner will visit Ankara following repeated Turkish threats to pull out of migrant deal with EU * Merkel insists on goal to complete EU-US FTA by end of the year * Senior German MEPs: Countries that refuse to take part in the refugee quota scheme should be deprived of EU funds

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Selmayr’s other dream job — Erdoğan’s fanclub — What young people want

US Futures Rebound, European Stocks Higher As Oil Rises


From the FloorTF
At their regular morning conference call Saxo Bank's strategy team dissects development's including a surprise rise in US oil inventories a somewhat unsettling lower-than-expected New Zealand interest rate cut and the state of the corn and wheat markets ahead of a key assessment on Friday.

Norjan keskuspankki pitää korkoleikkurin piilossa * Ruotsin teollisuustuotanto supistui, mutta palvelusektori porskuttaa * Tanskan inflaatio pysyi ennallaan * Tänään julkaistava Ruotsin inflaatio vaimenee

Hetemäki: Hallitusohjelman säästöt eivät riitä velkaantumisen taittamiseen – Verkkouutiset