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Monday, August 15

15th Aug - Quiet

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Portugal Gaining on Italy in the Banking ‘Doom Loop’CFR

Editorial: The EU's Broken Budget Rules Need ChangingView / BB

The Death of the Most Generous Nation on EarthForeign Policy
Little Sweden has taken in far more refugees per capita than any country in Europe. But in doing so, it’s tearing itself apart.

Beleaguered Pound Risks More Pain Amid Raft of Post-Brexit Data – BB
Bundesbank Sees Limited Brexit Impact, Expects Strong Q3 Growth – ZH
Brexit could be delayed to end of 2019 - problems for France, Germany? – Politico

Holiday recap: while you were busy Nordea
If you are catching up with the market developments during or after your holiday, here is a summary of what happened and links to in-depth coverage.

Where is the “honest dialogue”?Scott Sumner

How Presidential Candidates Are Seen around the WorldBarry Ritholtz

Fiscal Stimulus RevisitedView / BB
Monetary policy is suffering from diminishing returns. It's time for governments to act.

Macro Monday: Focus on FOMC minutes and inflationTF
Three central banks will present minutes this week * The USD to be neutral to supported going into FOMC minutes on Wednesday * Equities are still risk-on: outperformance of European equities vs US counterparts

The Bank of Japan's Unstoppable Rise to Shareholder No. 1BB
BOJ set to become top owner of 55 firms in the Nikkei 225 * Japan’s central bank boosted its ETF buying program last month

Things I’m Pretty Sure About The Motley Fool

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: 10 charts to watchNordea
"Risk on" - a pause, or a break higher?  Some reasons to remain optimist, with oil price rise as a major potential surprise near term. CAD, NOK, AUD - key trends vs USD for a test.

Bretton Woods: RIPMarc Chandler

Larry Swedroe: Low Vol Advantage Not What You’d

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Weak Japanese GDP, yields sliding, watch out for ZEW * All eyes on UK retail sales this week * Disappointing US retail sales pushed yields lower * Will recent JPY strength be reversed by weak GDP numbers

Morning MarketsTF
Markets were emboldened by the poor data show from the US that could stymie a Federal Reserve rate move to head higher. Spare a thought for poor Nikkei though which party-pooped after disappointing GDP data out of Japan.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Eases to Start the New Week

Daily Market CommentMacro Man

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit behind schedule — Merkel back to work — Russia’s menacing season

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues


FX UpdateTF
Sterling has poked toward the lows for the cycle against the G3 currencies recently amid record speculative short positioning. UK data midweek is thus a key sentiment test for the pound. Elsewhere USDJPY eyes the lows for the cycle after weak US retail sales data on Friday.

From the FloorTF
Chinese equities were the biggest mover in overnight Asian trade with the Shanghai composite index adding an impressive 2.45% for its highest one-day gain since late May. But over in the FX markets indifference is the order of the day and "extreme complacency" will be a key theme this week.

Brexit-äänestyksen vaurioista ensimerkkejä * USA:n heinäkuun vähittäismyynti jäi hieman odotuksista * Saksan toisen neljänneksen BKT odotuksia vahvempi * Keskiviikkona julkaistavasta Fedin pöytäkirjasta etsitään vihjeitä koronnostosta

Jan Hurri: Joko taas? Pankkitestit talousteatteriaTalSa
Uuden saksalaistutkimuksen mukaan suurpankeilta puuttuu jopa sata kertaa enemmän pääomia kuin Euroopan pankkivalvoja EBA uskottelee. Pankkien "ankarat" stressitestit olivat taas tökeröä teatteria.

Taloussanomien ”analyysi” pankkitesteistä tökeröä teatteria Roger Wessman

Markkinatalous pitää uudistaa Osmo Soininvaara

EU-kritiikki ei taida enää olla vain niin sanottua ääriliikehdintää Verkkouutiset
Kun 15 EU-asiantuntijaa saa kirjoittaa mitä haluaa, pessimismi on vallitseva mieliala.