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Monday, August 22

22nd Aug - Eurosummit, Mervyn King's article

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Villains and heroes of Europe’s economyWaPo
The timing couldn’t be better for Joseph Stiglitz’s new book, “The Euro.” In it, Stiglitz recounts the tragic irony of how the euro, which was supposed to bring Europe together, is in fact driving it apart

Mervyn King: Which Europe Now? NY Review of Books
The Brexit Question That Nobody AskedView / BB
With or without Britain, where was the EU headed? Nowhere good, says Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England.

Juncker says 'borders are the worst invention ever'BI

Mission Impossible Looms for Renzi’s Italian Growth TargetBB
Premier Renzi, euro area face setback on slower pace * Make-or-break autumn referendum adds to government challenge

Matteo Renzi: no early election after referendumPolitico

Europe Seeks Life After Brexit as Merkel Meets Allies at SeaBB
Merkel, Hollande, Renzi meet to discuss gameplan Reuters
Merkel Tells Renzi He Can’t Bend Euro Rules to Boost GrowthBB

U.K. Economic Stamina Not Assured After Early Brexit ResilienceBB
First official data indicate little impact from EU vote * Investors pricing in less chance of a November rate cut

A Cure for Brexit ParalysisView / BB
Talks between Britain and the EU should start quickly, then take as long as they need.

Fischer Signals 2016 Rate Hike With Economy Nearing Fed Goals BB
Fed vice chair talks days before Yellen’s Jackson Hole address * Fischer sees economic growth picking up in coming quarters

Dollar Weakness and Fed ExpectationsMarc Chandler

Train Your Brain for Trading (No, Really!)BB
Recent research finds that traders looking at prices use parts of the brain associated with reading other people.

Where does market intuition come from?Adam Grimes

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: shoulder...or springboard?Nordea
The USD bounced from key support last week. Bullish correction, but zooming out - replay of 2001? JPY further to gain? What to expect from Jackson hole? If history is to guide...

Macro Monday: Boring Jackson's Hole so wait for SeptemberTF
There's not likely to be anything positive from Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole later this week - but nothign negative either. She's keeping her cards close to her chest - or just playing it safe. We'll see a lot more hawkish posturing from Fed post September 2

Jan von Gerich: Bonds: Post-summer swingNordea
While it would be clearly premature to conclude bond yields have bottomed for good, there is room for yields to head higher in the coming month. Issuance will pick-up after the summer and the Fed is set to become more vocal in trying to shift market pricing. Further, the seemingly expensive valuations will make some profit taking look tempting for investors returning from holidays at a time when inflation data is showing at least some pick up in momentum.

Martin Enlund: Global: could Fed halt the dash for trash?Nordea
The Fed’s stance has been instrumental in reflating global asset markets this year, but with the cyclical outlook improving, tail risks receding and most "structural lessons" learnt, the scope for further dovish shocks should be limited. The difference between a grab for yield and a “dash for trash” is merely one of degree, and the Fed should definitely not be seeking the latter...

‘Well-Timed’ OPEC Talk Forces Oil Bears Into Record Reversal BB
Speculators cut wagers on falling WTI crude price by 26%: CFTC * OPEC could freeze output as big members pump flat-out: Khelil

Deutsche Bank’s $10-Billion ScandalThe New Yorker
How a scheme to help Russians secretly funnel money offshore unravelled.

Matt Levine: Mirror Trades and Tax TricksView / BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Focus on Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole * Yields rise on oil prices and less dovish Fed speak * EURUSD key test around 1.1350,

Morning MarketsTF
Stanley Fischer's upbeat diagnosis on the state of the US economy has caused investors to reassess their forecasts for Fed rate action.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Fischer Joins Dudley; Waiting for Yellen

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Down the hole?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
 ‘Big three’ EU leaders meet today to discuss post-Brexit strategy * FT: Infrastructure spending down following vote to leave the EU * YouGov: majority of people believe EU referendum result should be respected and oppose a second referendum * Article 50 will not be triggered before end of the year as IDS urges PM to start Brexit talks “as soon as possible” * Juncker: Turkey must fulfil all requirements for visa-free travel * Germany and Turkey attempt to soften tense diplomatic relations * Swedish PM warns UK cutting corporate taxes could make Brexit negotiations “more difficult” * UK house prices forecast to decline by 1% next year

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
EU3 summit — POLITICO 28 nominations open — Brussels power couples

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower


FX UpdateTF
A speech by US Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer strongly points to another Fed rate hike this year but no specifics on timing. The US dollar was bid to start the week on this news but wait for Yellen's speech this Friday at Jackson Hole Wyoming – the key trigger for the next move in the greenback.

From the Floor TF
Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer has reignited rate-hike talk strengthening dollar and helping to take some of the fire out of the ferocious yen rally.

Poliittiset riskit latistavat euroalueen näkymiä * Tällä viikolla saadaan USA:n teollisuuden ja palvelusektorin elokuun luottamusluvut (PMI) * Norjan öljyinvestointisuunnitelmat julkaistaan keskiviikkona * Markkinat seuraavat Fedin pääjohtaja Yellenin puhetta perjantaina

Soini: EU voi selviytyä, jos sovituista asioista aletaan pitämään kiinniSuomen Uutiset

Yritysverotuksen vaikutus rahoitus- ja investointikannusteisiin – VATT
VATT: Suomen yritysverotus suosii velkaa – Viron mallissa hyvää ja huonoa – TalSa

Nyt meni kuppi nurin –"mitta on täysi" – Helsingin uutiset
Kenen mitta on täysi? – E2