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Monday, December 12

12th Dec - Trump vs China, Oil boosted





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EUROPE
Wolfgang Münchau: Italy poses a huge threat to the euro and union – FT
One day the country will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the currency

Investors Flood Into European Financial ETF After Draghi's Non-Taper Taper – BB
What Is Plan B for Monte Paschi After Italy Vote?: QuickTake Q&A – BB
Contribution on the review of the EU macroprudential policy framework – ECB


UNITED STATES
Economists Are Out. Goldman Is Back In. – View / BB

  FEDERAL RESERVE
Nomura: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Goldman: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Merrill: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Review of FOMC Projections – Bill McBride
What FOMC Says may be More Important than What it Does – Marc Chandler

  TRUMP / CHINA
Gideon Rachman: Trump faces five fateful foreign policy choices – FT
A clash between the US and China a rising risk for markets – Danske Bank
Beijing hits back at Donald Trump over Taiwan stance – FT
China warns Trump against ignoring its Taiwan interests – Reuters
China Warns Trump Against Using Taiwan for Leverage on Trade – BB
China’s Red Line Has Asia Braced for Lose-Lose Battle With Trump – BB

  TRUMP / STOCK MARKET RALLY
Broadening Trump Rally Christens a New S&P 500 Champion Each Day – BB
Ritholz: Six Things to Consider as Stocks Break Records – View / BB
Investors bet on tax cuts, repatriated profits and deregulation – The Economist
Breaking The Correlation Curse – ZH
Market Breaks Apart in ‘Lifeline’ for Stock Pickers – WSJ
El-Erian: How to Make This Stock-Market Rally Last – View / BB

 
OTHER
Week's Central Banks Galore – BB
Policy meetings littered with caveats but likely no surprises * Treasury auctions, Australia jobless report also loom

Macro Monday: Focus turns to Fed decision – TF
This is the final Macro Monday for this year where the week's focus will be all on the Fed.

Aurelija Augulyte’s FX: tit for tat – Nordea
ECB has managed to taper without a tantrum. Now Fed's turn. Market expectations high, as the global economic surprise index at 3-year peak. Watch out for risk...and make bonds loved again. JPY above all.

Saudis Signal Deeper Cuts After Deal With Non-OPEC Countries – BB
Russia among non-OPEC nations pledging to cut 558,000 barrels * Saudi minister says he’ll go beyond commitment at OPEC meeting

The fatal flaw in macropru: It ignores political risk – vox

China Economic Outlook: Uncertain times – Nordea
Despite better momentum, Chinese growth will decline further in the years ahead due to structural adjustment. Moreover, it faces the risk of trade tension with the US, a housing bubble and capital outflows that could spark devaluation fear

BIS Quarterly Review press release – BIS
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2016 –
BIS
A paradigm shift in markets? * Highlights of global financial flows * Downsized FX markets: causes and implications * The changing shape of interest rate derivatives markets * Emerging derivatives markets? * Non-deliverable forwards: impact of currency internationalisation and derivatives reform * Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?

BIS Statistical Bulletin, December 2016 – BIS

Everyone is totally just winging it, all the time – The Guardian
Every time a public figure behaves with less-than-stellar competence, we're incredulous. We probably shouldn't be

  OPEC AND OIL
Cut, cut and yet another cut - Oil +4% – Nordea
Oil hits highest since mid-2015 as global producers agree to cut – Reuters
Oil Surges as Saudis Eye Deeper Cuts While Non-OPEC Joins Deal – BB
Wall Street: "Saudis Are Wrong To Think US Shale Won't Respond" – ZH


REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Non-OPEC production cut * Next up is Fed Chair Yellen, rates to consolidate ahead of Fed rate hike * USD/JPY rose too fast – correction likely

Morning Markets – TF
Crude oil prices have soared to their highest levels in almost two years after the unlikely alliance of Russia and Saudi Arabia has successfully engineered an output-cutting pact designed to restore balance to the troubled market.

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar and Yen Trade Lower to Start the Week

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
What do post-election rallies say about future returns?

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Oil jumps * Bonds sell off * Italian banks * Markets slip * Tillerson for secretary of state?

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, Bonds Slide; China Tumbles As Oil Surges To 17 Month High

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
USDJPY has pulled through a key retracement level this morning on the strength of oil and as US interest rates are poised at the high of the cycle ahead of this week’s chief focus: the FOMC meeting.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Mitä Yellen sanoo tulevasta? * OPEC:n ulkopuoliset öljyntuottajamaat pääsivät sopuun lisäleikkauksista * Norjan keskuspankilta ei ole odotettavissa dramaattisia siirtoja * Julkaisimme uusimmat valuutta- ja korkoennusteemme

Kriisirahaston johtaja uskoo: Euro voidaan korjata pienin askelin – HS
Euro voidaan korjata, vaikka suuret visiot eivät äänestäjiä kiinnostakaan, sanoo euroalueen kriisirahaston johtaja Klaus Regling.