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Monday, December 12

12th Dec - Trump vs China, Oil boosted

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Wolfgang Münchau: Italy poses a huge threat to the euro and unionFT
One day the country will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the currency

Investors Flood Into European Financial ETF After Draghi's Non-Taper Taper – BB
What Is Plan B for Monte Paschi After Italy Vote?: QuickTake Q&A – BB
Contribution on the review of the EU macroprudential policy framework – ECB

Economists Are Out. Goldman Is Back In. – View / BB

Nomura: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Goldman: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Merrill: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
Review of FOMC Projections – Bill McBride
What FOMC Says may be More Important than What it Does – Marc Chandler

Gideon Rachman: Trump faces five fateful foreign policy choices – FT
A clash between the US and China a rising risk for markets – Danske Bank
Beijing hits back at Donald Trump over Taiwan stance – FT
China warns Trump against ignoring its Taiwan interests – Reuters
China Warns Trump Against Using Taiwan for Leverage on Trade – BB
China’s Red Line Has Asia Braced for Lose-Lose Battle With Trump – BB

Broadening Trump Rally Christens a New S&P 500 Champion Each Day – BB
Ritholz: Six Things to Consider as Stocks Break Records – View / BB
Investors bet on tax cuts, repatriated profits and deregulation – The Economist
Breaking The Correlation Curse – ZH
Market Breaks Apart in ‘Lifeline’ for Stock Pickers – WSJ
El-Erian: How to Make This Stock-Market Rally Last – View / BB

Week's Central Banks GaloreBB
Policy meetings littered with caveats but likely no surprises * Treasury auctions, Australia jobless report also loom

Macro Monday: Focus turns to Fed decision TF
This is the final Macro Monday for this year where the week's focus will be all on the Fed.

Aurelija Augulyte’s FX: tit for tatNordea
ECB has managed to taper without a tantrum. Now Fed's turn. Market expectations high, as the global economic surprise index at 3-year peak. Watch out for risk...and make bonds loved again. JPY above all.

Saudis Signal Deeper Cuts After Deal With Non-OPEC Countries BB
Russia among non-OPEC nations pledging to cut 558,000 barrels * Saudi minister says he’ll go beyond commitment at OPEC meeting

The fatal flaw in macropru: It ignores political risk vox

China Economic Outlook: Uncertain timesNordea
Despite better momentum, Chinese growth will decline further in the years ahead due to structural adjustment. Moreover, it faces the risk of trade tension with the US, a housing bubble and capital outflows that could spark devaluation fear

BIS Quarterly Review press releaseBIS
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2016
A paradigm shift in markets? * Highlights of global financial flows * Downsized FX markets: causes and implications * The changing shape of interest rate derivatives markets * Emerging derivatives markets? * Non-deliverable forwards: impact of currency internationalisation and derivatives reform * Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?

BIS Statistical Bulletin, December 2016BIS

Everyone is totally just winging it, all the time The Guardian
Every time a public figure behaves with less-than-stellar competence, we're incredulous. We probably shouldn't be

Cut, cut and yet another cut - Oil +4% – Nordea
Oil hits highest since mid-2015 as global producers agree to cut – Reuters
Oil Surges as Saudis Eye Deeper Cuts While Non-OPEC Joins Deal – BB
Wall Street: "Saudis Are Wrong To Think US Shale Won't Respond" – ZH

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Non-OPEC production cut * Next up is Fed Chair Yellen, rates to consolidate ahead of Fed rate hike * USD/JPY rose too fast – correction likely

Morning MarketsTF
Crude oil prices have soared to their highest levels in almost two years after the unlikely alliance of Russia and Saudi Arabia has successfully engineered an output-cutting pact designed to restore balance to the troubled market.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar and Yen Trade Lower to Start the Week

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
What do post-election rallies say about future returns?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Oil jumps * Bonds sell off * Italian banks * Markets slip * Tillerson for secretary of state?

Global Stocks, Bonds Slide; China Tumbles As Oil Surges To 17 Month High


FX UpdateTF
USDJPY has pulled through a key retracement level this morning on the strength of oil and as US interest rates are poised at the high of the cycle ahead of this week’s chief focus: the FOMC meeting.

Mitä Yellen sanoo tulevasta? * OPEC:n ulkopuoliset öljyntuottajamaat pääsivät sopuun lisäleikkauksista * Norjan keskuspankilta ei ole odotettavissa dramaattisia siirtoja * Julkaisimme uusimmat valuutta- ja korkoennusteemme

Kriisirahaston johtaja uskoo: Euro voidaan korjata pienin askelinHS
Euro voidaan korjata, vaikka suuret visiot eivät äänestäjiä kiinnostakaan, sanoo euroalueen kriisirahaston johtaja Klaus Regling.