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Tuesday, December 13

13th Dec - Trump/ECB-rally continues

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EU strikes deal on stronger trade arsenal against China – Politico

Netherlands election: Will Geert Wilders follow Trump and win power? – Europp

UniCredit Plans $13.8 Billion Stock Sale, Cuts to Boost Profit – BB
IMF Demands More Spain Reforms to Keep ‘Impressive’ Recovery – BB
Tim Worstall: It's Not The IMF Demanding Greek Austerity – Forbes

Merkel’s Party Says Putin Would Like to See Her Fall in 2017 – BB
Germany considers forcing Facebook to delete fake news – Politico
Merkel, Hollande back extending sanctions on Russia over Ukraine– Reuters
View: Germany is leading a European crackdown on "benefit tourism” – BB

Fed normalisation tool box stocked and ready for second rate hike – Danske Bank 

2016 Financial Stability Report – OFR
2016 Annual Report to Congress – OFR
OFR Assesses Key Threats to Financial Stability – OFR 
Three Things We’ve Learned About How Trump Will Govern – 538
Trump picks Exxon chief Tillerson as secretary of state – Reuters
Trump Picks Exxon Mobil’s Tillerson as Secretary of State – BB
Trump's Treasury Pick Has a $230 Million Blemish on His Record – BB
Tillerson a Frequent White House Visitor Over Russia Sanctions – BB
View: Exxon CEO Has the Skills for a Better Russia Policy – BB
Trump Dissing Daily Intelligence Briefing Worsens Rift With CIA – BB
Trump's tough trade talk makes U.S. firms fear China retribution – Reuters
George Magnus: Trump has put US-China relations in the balance – Prospect
Trigger-happy Trump stalks baffled China – TF

Martin Enlund: USD: a bright fiscal future is not in the priceNordea
The USD has done well recently. The related UST sell-off primarily reflects a normalisation, and not yet a brighter fiscal future, implying that Trump’s fiscal policy could push the USD still stronger - but that seems unlikely for the near term.

Fundamentals Are Becoming Important Again to the Trump-Led Stock Market BB
The rally in developed market stocks sits comfortably with sharp upgrades in earnings expectations in recent weeks.

OPEC Deal to Create Oil-Supply Deficit Next Half, IEA SaysBB

China maintains economic momentumPictet

Research links: focused and boringAbnormal Returns

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Equities, yields, currencies mixed waiting for the Fed * Swedish inflation numbers * The Bund settles just below 0.4% * USD on back foot ahead of the Fed

Morning MarketsTF
It's a data-heavy session in Europe today with inflation updates from around the continent first on the agenda. Elsewhere the Italian banking debacle looks to be calming – UniCredit the country's biggest bank has unveiled a massive restructuring plan.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa
Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Unicredit * IEA on OPEC deal * Trump’s interests * Markets rise * UK inflation, FED

Global Stocks Jump, Dow Set For 16th Post-Election Record High After UniCredit Restructuring; Fed Looms


FX Update TF
The market is second guessing whether the Fed can boost the greenback tomorrow as a number of major USD pairs languish near key supports ahead of the FOMC. We’re constructive on further USD upside potential.

Riksbank jatkaa inflaation tuijottamista * Saksan ZEW-indeksin odotetaan pysyvän laajalti muuttumattomana * Turkin BKT supistui kolmannella neljänneksellä 1,8 prosenttia suhteessa edellisvuoteen * Öljyn hinta on laskenut eilisen avauksen huipuista