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Monday, December 19

19th Dec - Terror in Berlin

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Draghi Said to Warn EU Rising Global Rates Pose Crisis RiskBB
ECB President briefed European heads of state and government * Lack of reform and fiscal discipline seen as risks in 2017

Most migrants in Germany fail to get jobsPolitico
More than 400,000 asylum seekers were registered with employment agencies, but only 34,000 got work.

Research Sweden - The business cycle: dead or dormant?Danske Bank

What is wrong with Italy's economy?CER

Fed Hawk Lacker Says May Need More Than Three Hikes in 2017BB
Says he doesn’t know if Fed is behind the curve on inflation * Richmond Fed chief says prudent to assume some fiscal boost

Yellen To Class Of 2016: "You're Entering The Strongest Job Market In A Decade"ZH

Four Years of Living Dangerously: CEOs Brace for the Trump EraBB
The challenge of planning for an unpredictable president * ‘We just don’t know where the bully pulpit is going’

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the ElectionRay Dalio

View: Coming Soon: Trump vs. YellenBB

View: Why Trump Appointees Will Be Effective, for Better or WorseBB

The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan Project Syndicate

Flash US Services PMI – Markit
Service PMI To Three Month Low, Job Creation Jumps, Input Costs Soar – ZH

Calm Breaks in Pre-Holiday Market as China News Hits Oil, Stocks BB
Crude jumps on reports China’s Navy seized a U.S. drone * Stocks dip, pull back to unchanged; Treasury yields fall

Wall Street's 2017 Forecasts Are Doomed If Trump Doesn't Follow Through On Campaign PromisesBB

Aurelija Augulyte’s FX: 2017 peekNordea
The eventful 2016 is coming to the end on a high note. Expectations are positive for 2017. What could go wrong? My first helicopter view on Markets next year...

Elements of Surprise: GBP - currency of the year?Nordea
The 2016 was a disaster for the GBP, as the unexpected Brexit vote knocked it off most since the Lehman crisis. Next year it will stage a comeback, as the US and European politics predominate, BoE turns hawkish and housing market recovers.

Emerging Market BrieferDanske Bank
A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017

COT: Dollar neutral in run up to the FOMCTF
The bullish dollar run was maintained in the run up to last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting with buying of sterling and euro cancelling out the selling of yen in particular.

COT: Energy sector drives increase in bullish commodity betsTF
An energy-sector led wave of buying took commodities to a fourth successive net-buying week with the WTI net-long at a near 2.5-year high.

Münchau: Reform the economic system now or the populists will do itFT
The interests of the financial sector and the economy at large are different

Presentation: Four Signs of Rising Financial Stress in China Danske Bank
Bond yields have shot higher * Equity markets have sold off again * CNH money market rates back at January-highs * Capital outflows have increased

Five Themes for 2017ABN AMRO
More growth * Tighter financial conditions * Another year of political risks * The return of inflation * Monetary policy divergence

Morgan Stanley Reflects On The Lessons From 2016ZH

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Dollar dethroned by drone * Hawkish Fed rhetoric thus ignored * Today: Ifo numbers and Yellen speech

Morning MarketsTF
The standoff between China and the US sparked by drone seizure in the South China Sea is escalating. The drone has been returned but president-elect Trump's language remains strident and markets are not liking what they see.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Mixed, but Resilient Undertone

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Oil's future looks bright * Scoxit? * Barclays cuts customers * Markets quiet * Sub tweet

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

Global Stocks, Yields, Dollar Fade In Muted Volume As Traders Close Out 2016 Books


FX Update TF
Yen crosses consolidated sharply on Friday and into the start of this week ahead of Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting as some traders fear that the pace of yen declines could see governor Kuroda softening his stance on the still new yield curve control policy.

Riksbank johdattaa joululomalle * Yellen puhuu tänään työmarkkinoiden tilasta * Usko Saksan talouden kehitykseen vahvaa * Saksan 2-vuoden korko laski ennätyksellisen alas