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Thursday, December 1

1st Dec - GBP-spike, stocks heavy

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European banks - Non-performing loans, negative rates & regulationDeutsche Bank

Brexit likely to result in bilateral trade agreement or WTO – Open Europe
Brexit Minister Sends Sterling Higher – Marc Chandler

ECB preview: Draghi vs. TrumpNordea
We expect the ECB to prolong its purchase programme without tapering by six months and probably announce also other measures to tackle the continuously low inflation. Such a policy should keep bond yields anchored at low levels.

Sources: ECB seeks compromise on asset buys as part of extensionReuters
Sources: the ECB will extend its bond purchases beyond March and consider sending a formal signal after its policy meeting next Thursday that the program will eventually end.

German Rates and Scarcity of High-Quality Paper: AnalysisBB

[Italy, Austria] Europe’s December Day of Reckoning – Project Syndicate
The Italian movement that could remake Europe – Politico
Why Italy leaving the euro remains unlikely – Europp
Renzi’s reform would make institutions more efficient and responsive – Europp
Italy Has a Fundamental Demographic Challenge – BB

5 Things to Watch in the November Jobs Report – WSJ
El-Erian: Don't Ignore Jobs Report, Even Though a Hike Is Certain – View / BB

Presentation: Five macro themes for 2017 Danske Bank
Synchronised recovery * Reflation * European policy uncertainty * Trump: what policies and when? * ECB policy: tapering or not

November Was a Massive Month for Markets Around the World BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

OPEC agreement, surging oil prices, climbing bond yields * Sizable tax cuts still on Trump’s agenda * OPEC deal and solid US data drove rates higher * NOK was the big winner yesterday

Morning MarketsTF
Crude oil remains in focus this Thursday as European markets prepare to open in the wake of yesterday's Saudi-brokered production reduction pact and the consequent price surge past $50/barrel.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar is on the Defensive, though Yields Rise

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
K vs L

Daily Press Summary Open Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

US Open ZH
S&P Futures, Europe, Dollar Drop; Yields Rise As WTI Advances Above $50


FX UpdateTF
AUD and NZD finally broke lower versus the US dollar yesterday. Elsewhere the euro is erratic ahead of the Italian referendum and notably weaker versus sterling. A nervous couple of days await as the market doesn’t have a firm grasp of how to treat the likely No vote from Italy over the weekend.

OPEC leikkaa tuotantoaan ensimmäistä kertaa kahdeksaan vuoteen * Euroalueen inflaatio kiihtyi marraskuussa odotetusti * Trump aikoo lunastaa lupauksensa suurista veroleikkauksista * Brasilian keskuspankki leikkasi ohjauskorkoaan