21st Nov - Big green day, ATH in US

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EUROPE

Guest post: Getting to Eurobonds by reforming the ESM – FT

ECB Is Said Likely to Take Small Steps in QE Exit Guidance – BB

Small shifts in policy language seen as way to avoid shocks * Forward guidance sets tone for bond buying and interest rates

Russia Economic Review – Daiwa

Russian growth: Q2 dreams don’t come true – Nordea

  GERMAN POLITICS
Editorial: Germany Can Do Better Than Gridlock – BB

Don't redo the election. Restart the parties' negotiations.

Merkel Tells Her German Rivals: Back Me or Face Voters Again – BB

Chancellor’s past haunts her as former partners shun coalition * German president will seek to cajole parties to resume talks

Back to square one: German coalition talks collapse – ING

Likelihood of new elections in Germany has increased as coalition talks failed last night when the liberal FDP walked away from the negotiations.

Gideon Rachman: A wobbly Merkel means a weaker Europe – FT

If, as now seems distinctly possible, the end of the Merkel era is within sight, Europe will be in a new and dangerous situation

Wolfgang Münchau: Is Merkel’s tenure in Germany drawing to a close? – FT

Failed coalition talks severely dent her leadership prospects

FT View: Angela Merkel’s intimations of political mortality – FT

The collapse of coalition talks leaves Germany’s chancellor few options

Hans-Werner Sinn: Germany’s Götterdämmerung – Project Syndicate

With the withdrawal of the Free Democrats from coalition talks, Chancellor Angela Merkel could be forced to form a minority government. That would not necessarily be a bad thing; in fact, a Merkel who can be called to account by the Bundestag may be the best alternative Germany has.

UNITED STATES

The Economic Yield Curve Is the One to Watch – BB

The difference between the federal funds rate and economic growth is unusually wide, consistent with a positive outlook.

MARKETS / OTHER

FANG Stocks May Not Be ‘Tech’ Stocks in 2018 – WSJ

S&P Dow Jones Indices last week announced last week that they will create a new “communications services” sector that is likely to include Google parent Alphabet, Facebook as well as Netflix.

SocGen: despite higher earnings, cash flow growth has stalled – ZH

BofA's Apocalyptic: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts 2018, War May Follow – ZH

Bull Market's Big Supporters Ask What May Tip It to the Bears – BB

Nuveen’s Doll says inflation pressures need to be more severe * Schwab’s Sonders says chance bar set too high for earnings

GS Bets On "Rational Exuberance", Sees Bull Lasting Until 2020 – ZH
GS: What If The "Rational Exuberance" Is Irrational? – ZH

A Few Tips for Volatility Trading – Quantpedia

Risk Parity: How Much Data Should We Use – Newfound

We explore whether more sensitive volatility estimates (less data) or more stable volatility estimates (more data) produce better risk parity results.

Is QE equivalent to “printing money”? – Jussi Lindgren

QE in its purest form (no buying of bonds by the banks) is not equal to money printing as it only increases the amount of central bank money deposits. However, in practice because of of the portfolio rebalancing and because of the scale of QE , banks do create new money to fund their bond-buying from institutional investors.

REGULARS

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Merkel’s future in doubt, AT&T showdown, FT readers share harassment stories

WSJ City – WSJ

German Turmoil Threatens Europe, Fear of Tech Giants Fuels Deal Boom

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

No new German government in sight * EUR weakens on Merkel’s woes * Muted EUR fixed income reaction

Morning Markets – TF

With Angela Merkel's political future still hanging in the balance markets will focus today on the ongoing efforts to form a German government as well as on a slew of British data that will provide an update on the increasingly troubled UK economy.

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Dollar Marks Time

Brussels Playbook – Politico

EU agency tie-breakers — Angela’s coalition ashes — Barnier unchained

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH

Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By "Germany's Brexit Moment"; TSY Curve Collapse Continues

Frontrunning – ZH

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Suomen työttömyysaste julkaistaan tänään | Muilta osin kalenteri on melko tyhjä | Saksa ja Draghi heikensivät euroa

Helsingin päättäjät yrittävät tahallaan käynnistää uuden pakolaisaallon – Suomen Uutiset

Vesa Vihriälä: Sisältöä EMU-keskusteluun, please – ETLA

Sami Metelinen: Tähän Angela Merkel nyt tähtää – Verkkouutiset

Hallitusneuvotteluiden kariutumisen tarkoituksena on pakottaa sosialidemokraattinen SPD uudelleen neuvottelupöytään.