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Tuesday, November 21

21st Nov - Big green day, ATH in US

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Guest post: Getting to Eurobonds by reforming the ESMFT

ECB Is Said Likely to Take Small Steps in QE Exit Guidance
Small shifts in policy language seen as way to avoid shocks * Forward guidance sets tone for bond buying and interest rates

Russia Economic ReviewDaiwa
Russian growth: Q2 dreams don’t come trueNordea

Editorial: Germany Can Do Better Than Gridlock
Don't redo the election. Restart the parties' negotiations.

Merkel Tells Her German Rivals: Back Me or Face Voters AgainBB
Chancellor’s past haunts her as former partners shun coalition * German president will seek to cajole parties to resume talks

Back to square one: German coalition talks collapseING
Likelihood of new elections in Germany has increased as coalition talks failed last night when the liberal FDP walked away from the negotiations.

Gideon Rachman: A wobbly Merkel means a weaker EuropeFT
If, as now seems distinctly possible, the end of the Merkel era is within sight, Europe will be in a new and dangerous situation

Wolfgang Münchau: Is Merkel’s tenure in Germany drawing to a close?FT
Failed coalition talks severely dent her leadership prospects

FT View: Angela Merkel’s intimations of political mortalityFT
The collapse of coalition talks leaves Germany’s chancellor few options

Hans-Werner Sinn: Germany’s GötterdämmerungProject Syndicate
With the withdrawal of the Free Democrats from coalition talks, Chancellor Angela Merkel could be forced to form a minority government. That would not necessarily be a bad thing; in fact, a Merkel who can be called to account by the Bundestag may be the best alternative Germany has.

The Economic Yield Curve Is the One to WatchBB
The difference between the federal funds rate and economic growth is unusually wide, consistent with a positive outlook.

FANG Stocks May Not Be ‘Tech’ Stocks in 2018WSJ
S&P Dow Jones Indices last week announced last week that they will create a new “communications services” sector that is likely to include Google parent Alphabet, Facebook as well as Netflix.

SocGen: despite higher earnings, cash flow growth has stalledZH

BofA's Apocalyptic: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts 2018, War May FollowZH

Bull Market's Big Supporters Ask What May Tip It to the BearsBB
Nuveen’s Doll says inflation pressures need to be more severe * Schwab’s Sonders says chance bar set too high for earnings

GS Bets On "Rational Exuberance", Sees Bull Lasting Until 2020ZH
GS: What If The "Rational Exuberance" Is Irrational?ZH

A Few Tips for Volatility Trading – Quantpedia

Risk Parity: How Much Data Should We UseNewfound
We explore whether more sensitive volatility estimates (less data) or more stable volatility estimates (more data) produce better risk parity results.

Is QE equivalent to “printing money”?Jussi Lindgren
QE in its purest form (no buying of bonds by the banks) is not equal to money printing as it only increases the amount of central bank money deposits. However, in practice because of of the portfolio rebalancing and because of the scale of QE , banks do create new money to fund their bond-buying from institutional investors.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Merkel’s future in doubt, AT&T showdown, FT readers share harassment stories

German Turmoil Threatens Europe, Fear of Tech Giants Fuels Deal Boom

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

No new German government in sight * EUR weakens on Merkel’s woes * Muted EUR fixed income reaction

Morning MarketsTF
With Angela Merkel's political future still hanging in the balance markets will focus today on the ongoing efforts to form a German government as well as on a slew of British data that will provide an update on the increasingly troubled UK economy.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Marks Time

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
EU agency tie-breakers — Angela’s coalition ashes — Barnier unchained

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By "Germany's Brexit Moment"; TSY Curve Collapse Continues


Suomen työttömyysaste julkaistaan tänään | Muilta osin kalenteri on melko tyhjä | Saksa ja Draghi heikensivät euroa

Helsingin päättäjät yrittävät tahallaan käynnistää uuden pakolaisaallonSuomen Uutiset

Vesa Vihriälä: Sisältöä EMU-keskusteluun, please

Sami Metelinen: Tähän Angela Merkel nyt tähtääVerkkouutiset
Hallitusneuvotteluiden kariutumisen tarkoituksena on pakottaa sosialidemokraattinen SPD uudelleen neuvottelupöytään.