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Thursday, November 30

30th Nov - Epic US rally, but not in Europe

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Euro-area forecast update: Ongoing solid growth and little inflationNordea
Against the backdrop of recently strong growth and subdued inflation numbers, we fine-tune our forecasts. The underlying story is unchanged: solid growth, a very gradual rise in inflation and an accommodative ECB.

The Populist Tail Wagging the German DogProject Syndicate
Despite a growing chorus calling for reform of the eurozone and the European Union, the chances for meaningful change are diminishing. The main obstacle is Germany, whose economic interests lie not just with the status quo, but also with some of the populist governments that EU reformers must rebuff if they are to succeed.

Danish Economy Has Worst Contraction in Over Half a DecadeBB
Danske Bank says growth to rebound in 4Q on inventory effect * GDP growth in the second quarter was also revised lower

Euro area annual inflation up to 1.5% - Eurostat
Euro area unemployment at 8.8% - Eurostat
Euro Area Inflation Unexpectedly Misses Despite Sliding Unemployment – ZH
Small euro zone inflation rise matches ECB expectations of coming dip – Reuters
Euro-Area Inflation Misses Estimates as Unemployment Falls – BB
Inflation up, but by less than expected – Daiwa

Trigger Warning: How a Tax Measure Could Worsen the Next Recession WSJ
The Senate Republican tax plan making its way toward a vote today could include a poison pill that worsens a recession somewhere down the road: a so-called trigger that reverses tax cuts or imposes spending cuts if federal revenues come in lower than expected.

Markets Melt Up As Tax Deal LoomsZH

U.S. Consumer Spending Cools While Inflation May Encourage Fed – BB
U.S. consumer spending cools in October, inflation firming – Reuters
Inflation Indicator Ticks Up In October - Still Well Below Mandate – ZH
Personal Income increased 0.4% in October, Spending increased 0.3% - Bill McBride
PCE price indexes & consumer spending – Daiwa

These Market Moves Are Masking Trouble Beneath the Surface BB
Something bad happens to tech and it’s offset by a bank rally * Correlations fall apart and still the VIX hovers around 11

Global Stocks’ Clean Sweep
A gauge of equities worldwide is set to post its longest unbroken run of monthly gains

Goldilocks May Face at Least One Bear Late-2019, Guggenheim Says
Next recession likely to begin in about two years, report says * Returns can continue to be strong next year before declining

Hedge Fund Turnover Drops To All Time LowZH
Mostly holding stocks that have performed well in the past

JPMorgan Sees Pain for Growth Stocks and Their Hedge Fund FansBB

OPEC Agrees to Extend Oil Cuts Until the End of 2018BB
OPEC, Russia agree oil cut extension to end of 2018Reuters

Global deal on bank capital rules likely: EU officialReuters
The oversight body of the Basel Committee of banking supervisors meets on Dec. 7 and they are expected to sign off on final elements of their Basel III package of post financial crisis bank capital reforms.

"It Could Reshape The Global Trading System For Decades" - US Rejects China's Bid "Market Economy" StatusZH

'It's beautiful': This Toronto startup is investors' secret weapon to beating the market FP
Hedge funds pay handsomely for Quandl's market-beating alternative data, but when does such data cross the line into privacy violations or insider trading?

Matt Levine: Investors Are Trying to Learn Things About CompaniesBB
But amateurs will still be at a disadvantage.

Why a Hedge Fund Started a Video Game CompetitionNautilus
The chief technology officer of one of the world’s largest hedge funds talks data.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Trump attacks May, Google’s UK snooping claims, hedge funds’ cheesy trades

US Corporate Tax Plan in Flux, Bitcoin Exchanges Under Strain, Make-or-Break Moment for Oil

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Inflation day: upside risks to Euro-area inflation data * Rates higher on robust country level inflation figures * GBP stronger on Brexit breakthrough

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Brexit Hopes Underpin Sterling

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Trump vs. May — Poison politics featuring Glyphosate — Croat court suicide

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout


Aamukatsaus Nordea
Euroalueen marraskuun inflaatioluvut julkaistaan tänään | OPEC jatkanee tuotantoleikkauksia | Saksan inflaatio kiihtyi