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Monday, January 15

15th Jan - US holiday

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Commentary: For euro reforms, growth is the enemy Reuters
The more the euro zone economy thrives, the less pressure there will be on European politicians to take steps to prevent future crises.

Editorial: Italian Politicians Need to Get RealBB
With elections approaching, the parties are debating how to spend money that isn't there.

Paola Subacchi: The Electoral Fate of Italy’s BanksProject Syndicate
To fix Italy's banking system, the government that emerges from the general election in March will need a solid majority, a comprehensive strategy to boost economic growth, and a willingness to confront vested interests. But none of the parties has shown any indication that it can meet any of these criteria, much less all three.

Daniel Gros: Europe’s Doom Loop in ReverseProject Syndicate
Unlike before the 2011-2012 crisis, the eurozone seems to be locked in a benign credit cycle, in which lower risk premia allow both banks and governments to refinance at lower rates, more credit is available for the real economy, and the resulting recovery increases government revenue. But how long can this cycle persist?

Euro-Area Economic Boom to Roll On After Strong Start to '18BB
Economists raise forecast, see growth of 2.2% this year * ECB has noted strength, but no rate hike expected until 2019

German coalition displays timid vision of the future
Everything but ambition in deal where all parties win a bit

Senior SPD members cast doubt on German coalition deal
Party leaders call for tweaks to agreement with Merkel’s conservatives

Wolfgang Munchau: A German coalition deal to radically reshape EuropeFT
The preliminary agreement signals a shift to more agenda-driven EU politics

Berlin and Paris step up push for euro zone reform dealReuters
Berlin and Paris now face a race against time to reconcile differences over how to make the euro zone crisis-proof…[Economists] will unveil new proposals on Wednesday that attempt to bridge German demands for more discipline and France’s insistence on more risk-sharing.

Jamie Dimon walks back Trump one-term predictionCNBC
“Democrats do not have a chance. They don't have a strong centrist, pro-business, pro-free enterprise person”

Stiglitz Sees Risks in U.S. Politics as Spending Deadline NearsBB
Politicians are facing a Jan. 19 deadline to agree a new spending bill and avert a shutdown.

Citi Reveals The Reason Behind The Market's MeltupZH
While risk assets on central bank balance sheets may indeed be shrinking, other reserve managers are going in the other direction.

Goodbye to Bond-Trading on the Telephone BB
Electronic platforms are taking over and suddenly the SEC is very interested.

Keeping It Simple...Bund vs. UST Rates after the EUR rallyMacro Man

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Carillion’s crisis, the perfect age, hoopla in Detroit

UK Construction Giant Carillion Collapses, Dollar Siege Intensifies

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Coming wars — German coalition wobbles — Davos showdown
Dollar Tumbles As Euro Soars To 3-Year High; US Markets Closed