24th Jan - Weaker USD and stocks, trade wars

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EUROPE

Germany says “yes, but” to common deposit insurance – FAZ

The German Swindle Built Into The Euro – Forbes

Berlin and the German media have pushed away any talk of particular advantages. They certainly deny that the country engineered matters in this way. This may be so. No one at the euro’s birth anticipated such a result, not even the Germans. But whether the advantage was planned or not, Berlin, it is clear, has certainly gained.

It’s June or nothing for eurozone reform: Bruno Le Maire – Politico

French economy minister tells POLITICO that Paris and Berlin will take the big decisions.

Euro Demands Draghi's Attention at First ECB Meeting of 2018 – BB

The currency is already trading above projections for the year * Policy makers meet in Frankfurt to discuss stimulus plan

Leonid Bershidsky: How Europe Can Face Up to Reality on Immigration – BB

The focus of its efforts should shift from keeping people out toward building effective integration systems.

Inequality and Poverty across Generations in the European Union – IMF

A Dream Deferred: Inequality and Poverty Across Generations in Europe – IMF

Beppe Grillo’s 5Star farewell – Politico

Comedian removes all mention of the party and its backers from his blog.

And the next Italian prime minister is … - Politico

The field is wide open ahead of March 4 election.

Euro area business activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly 12 years – Pictet

UNITED STATES

Fed Chair Powell is ‘Yellen in disguise’ – Danske Bank

Trump makes first move on trade - more to come – Danske Bank

The action on solar and washing machines could very well be the first in a series of moves. Pending is a decision on steel and aluminium tariffs and/or quotas – and the investigation into intellectual property rights and demand for transfer of technology to Chinese companies in exchange for market access.

History Suggests Mnuchin’s Dollar Rhetoric Could Backfire – BB
Daniel Moss: The End of the 'Strong Dollar' Policy (Yes, Again) – BB

  MARKETS / OTHER

USD Tumbles After Mnuchin Endorses Weaker USD, Ross Speaks Of Trade Wars – ZH

Martin Enlund: EURUSD - Time to question the Quadvergence – Nordea

EUR/USD has been supported by four interrelated factors over the past year: growth, inflation, politics and long-term monetary policy direction. We think some of these drivers will turn in another direction.

M.C. Klein: NAIRU -  not just bad economics, now also bad politics – FT

A morally odious theory is empirically unsupportable and increasingly questioned by a younger generation of central bankers. Expect politicians to make more noise about the Fed's controversial choices after Yellen is gone.

Ray Dalio Says Bond Bear Market Has Begun, Expects Historic Crash – ZH

REGULARS

WSJ City – WSJ

Signs of Caution At Davos, UBS Reshuffles Wealth Management, Senate Confirms Fed’s Powell

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

 

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Central bank reshuffle — Europe day in Davos — Czarnecki sacking

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ARIYqLnEHrg/lorcan-roche-kelly

US Open – ZH

Futures A Sea Of Green As Dollar Bloodbath Accelerates

Frontrunning – ZH

 

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Julkaisemme Economic Outlookin tänään | Tänään saadaan euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit | Saksan ZEW-indeksi oli odotuksia vahvempi

 

Aamukatsaus – Danske Bank

 

Presidentinvaalit ja euro – Peter Nyberg

Suomalaisille on vuosikausia vakuutettu, ettei EU:sta (tai euroalueesta) voisi kehittyä liittovaltiota muuallakin kuin Suomessa vallitsevan poliittisen vastahakoisuuden takia
[…]
EU ei toimisi huonommin ilman euroa, mutta ajoittaisia integraation syventämis- ja laajentamisperusteiksi kelpaavia kriisejä olisi nykyistä vähemmän.

[…]
…varma asia on, että Suomen presidentillä on säilytetty valta ulkopoliittisissa kysymyksissä. Hänellä on siten osaltaan oikeus ja velvollisuus osallistua kotimaisiin keskusteluihin ja päätöksiin euroalueen tiivistymisestä. Valinnanvaraa on sekä euroa ja siten liittovaltiota kannattavien että niitä vastustavien ehdokkaiden osalta. Jokainen äänestäjä ottakoon tämä huomioon ja antakoon tämän vaikuttaa omaan päätökseensä poliittiselle vakaumukselleen sopivalla tavalla.