31st Jan - Trump's speech, Fed meeting, low EZ inflation, strong ADP jobs

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EUROPE

Leonid Bershidsky: Britain Has Lost Its Bearings on Brexit – BB

Nearly 600 days after the vote, it can't or won't tell the EU what it wants.

German parties agree on pensions as coalition talks progress – Reuters

When will the SNB start the process of policy normalisation? – Pictet

The SNB may soon start to normalise its monetary policy. We expect a first rate hike of 25bp in December 2018.

Credit shocks and the European labour market – ECB
Strong and significant correlation between credit difficulties and adjustments along both the extensive and the intensive margin. In the presence of credit market difficulties, firms cut wages by reducing the variable part of wages. This evidence suggests that credit shocks can affect not only the real economy, but also nominal variables.

  INFLATION

Euro area annual inflation down to 1.3% - Eurostat

Euro-Area Inflation Slowdown Highlights Uphill Battle for ECB – BB

Eurozone inflation provides reality check – ING

Core inflation still “some distance” from ECB’s criteria – Pictet

UNITED STATES

Richard Koo likes the US corporate tax cuts – FT

One of Keynesianism's most fervent advocates likes a "supply-side" policy change

Barry Ritholtz: The Odds of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better – BB

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce now is calling for higher gas taxes to repair America's crumbling roads.

Sanctions: “Kremlin report” - there is no new slant – Nordea

The report shouldn't be interpreted to impose sanctions on listed individuals or entities; as we expect, at least not until Russia's interference in US presidential elections is proved.

Kremlin report released by the US Treasury – Danske Bank

One step towards new anti-Russia sanctions

Employment Costs in U.S. Match Fastest 12-Month Gain Since 2008 – BB

U.S. labor costs increase solidly in the fourth quarter – Reuters

  FEDERAL RESERVE
Inflation Debate Grips Fed as Yellen Exits: Decision-Day Guide – BB

FOMC Statement – FED
Yellen’s Fed Era Ends With Unanimous Vote of No Rate Hike – BB
Fed holds interest rates steady, sees inflation rising this year – Reuters

  JANUARY JOBS
What to expect from January’s US jobs report – ING

Private Sector Employment Increased by 234,000 Jobs in January – ADP

ADP: Big Job Gains In "Excruciatingly Tight Labor Market" – ZH

  TRUMP’S STATE OF THE UNION
Full text: Trump’s 2018 State of the Union Address – BB

Trump Connects Presidency With Prosperity in ‘American Moment’ – BB

Trump's Insubstantial State of the Union – BB

Editorial: Trump Seeks Unity, All Too Late – BB

Trump pushes hardline immigration policies even as he urges unity – Reuters

Trump preaches cooperation, but can he follow through? – Reuters

Trump urges Congress to help stimulate $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending – Reuters

Trump’s “righteous mission” – ING

Trump’s Olive Branch to Democrats Cut Short by Divisive Tone – BB

MARKETS / OTHER

Is the Long Bull Market Run Nearly Over? – BB

From stock inflows to rapturous data, good tidings everywhere * Too much of a good thing or the sweet spot for shareholders?

The Jeff Bezos Empire In One Giant Chart – ZH

REGULARS

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Trump speech, Australia’s secret files, emotional support peacock

WSJ City – WSJ

Donald Trump Appeals Across the Aisle, Apple Faces Twin Securities Probes

WSJ Economics – WSJ

Europe Accelerates | State of the Union | Global Growth Sparks Bond Selloff

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Trump channels NATO’s Stoltenberg — Theresa May’s no quitter — Pollution battle

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH

US Futures Rebound After Trump's SOTU Speech; Dollar Slide Resumes Ahead Of Fed

Frontrunning – ZH

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Päivän mielenkiintoisin datajulkaisu on euroalueen inflaatio | Fed kokoustaa tänään | Saksan tammikuun inflaatio oli odotuksia heikompaa

Aamukatsaus – Danske Bank