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Wednesday, January 31

31st Jan - Trump's speech, Fed meeting, low EZ inflation, strong ADP jobs

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Leonid Bershidsky: Britain Has Lost Its Bearings on BrexitBB
Nearly 600 days after the vote, it can't or won't tell the EU what it wants.

German parties agree on pensions as coalition talks progress Reuters

When will the SNB start the process of policy normalisation?Pictet
The SNB may soon start to normalise its monetary policy. We expect a first rate hike of 25bp in December 2018.

Credit shocks and the European labour marketECB
Strong and significant correlation between credit difficulties and adjustments along both the extensive and the intensive margin. In the presence of credit market difficulties, firms cut wages by reducing the variable part of wages. This evidence suggests that credit shocks can affect not only the real economy, but also nominal variables.

Euro area annual inflation down to 1.3% - Eurostat
Euro-Area Inflation Slowdown Highlights Uphill Battle for ECB – BB
Eurozone inflation provides reality check – ING
Core inflation still “some distance” from ECB’s criteria – Pictet

Richard Koo likes the US corporate tax cuts FT
One of Keynesianism's most fervent advocates likes a "supply-side" policy change

Barry Ritholtz: The Odds of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got BetterBB
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce now is calling for higher gas taxes to repair America's crumbling roads.

Sanctions: “Kremlin report” - there is no new slant
The report shouldn't be interpreted to impose sanctions on listed individuals or entities; as we expect, at least not until Russia's interference in US presidential elections is proved.

Kremlin report released by the US TreasuryDanske Bank
One step towards new anti-Russia sanctions

Employment Costs in U.S. Match Fastest 12-Month Gain Since 2008
U.S. labor costs increase solidly in the fourth quarter Reuters

Inflation Debate Grips Fed as Yellen Exits: Decision-Day Guide – BB
FOMC Statement – FED
Yellen’s Fed Era Ends With Unanimous Vote of No Rate Hike – BB
Fed holds interest rates steady, sees inflation rising this year – Reuters

What to expect from January’s US jobs report –
Private Sector Employment Increased by 234,000 Jobs in January – ADP
ADP: Big Job Gains In "Excruciatingly Tight Labor Market" – ZH

Full text: Trump’s 2018 State of the Union Address –
Trump Connects Presidency With Prosperity in ‘American Moment’ – BB
Trump's Insubstantial State of the Union – BB
Editorial: Trump Seeks Unity, All Too Late – BB
Trump pushes hardline immigration policies even as he urges unity – Reuters
Trump preaches cooperation, but can he follow through? – Reuters
Trump urges Congress to help stimulate $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending – Reuters
Trump’s “righteous mission” – ING
Trump’s Olive Branch to Democrats Cut Short by Divisive Tone – BB

Is the Long Bull Market Run Nearly Over?BB
From stock inflows to rapturous data, good tidings everywhere * Too much of a good thing or the sweet spot for shareholders?

The Jeff Bezos Empire In One Giant ChartZH

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Trump speech, Australia’s secret files, emotional support peacock

Donald Trump Appeals Across the Aisle, Apple Faces Twin Securities Probes

WSJ Economics
Europe Accelerates | State of the Union | Global Growth Sparks Bond Selloff

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Brussels Playbook Politico
Trump channels NATO’s Stoltenberg — Theresa May’s no quitter — Pollution battle

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

US Open ZH
US Futures Rebound After Trump's SOTU Speech; Dollar Slide Resumes Ahead Of Fed


Aamukatsaus Nordea
Päivän mielenkiintoisin datajulkaisu on euroalueen inflaatio | Fed kokoustaa tänään | Saksan tammikuun inflaatio oli odotuksia heikompaa

AamukatsausDanske Bank