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Friday, February 1

1st Feb - Weak China, Deutsche Bank, Europe #4010

Ferdinando Giugliano: Italy’s Rulers Have a Serious ProblemBB
As recession arrives, Rome’s growth forecasts look like fantasy. Even if the League managed to ditch Five Star, it wouldn’t fix deep structural issues.

Sweden: PMI still weakNordea
The manufacturing PMI declined somewhat to 51.5 in January. Order intake fell to 49.3.

Euro area annual inflation expected to be 1.4% - Eurostat

The euro: From monetary independence to monetary sovereigntyvoxeu
While the euro area has full ‘monetary independence’, ‘monetary sovereignty’ needs to be built on the basis of a reassessment of the benefits and costs attached to the international role of the euro.

Availability of high-quality liquid assets and monetary policy operations: an analysis for the euro areaECB

Markets, banks, and shadow banksECB

Deutsche Bank's Slump Deepens as Trading Hit Hurts RevenueBB
Top line declines for eighth straight quarter on lower trading * Bank has first annual profit in four years, steps up cost goal

It’s not Brexit but Deutsche-it you want to worry aboutGolem XIV
Deutsche is a dirty bank. But does this mean Deutsche could be brought up on corporate criminal charges? Not a chance. To do that could mean it would lose its banking license and that would be Deutsche-it. And Deutche-it would be far more dangerous to the EU as a whole than Brexit.

Deutsche Shuts Its Eyes and Hopes for the Best BB
Much of the bank’s turnaround plan relies on things outside its control.

Danske profit drop highlights toll from money laundering scandal FT
Denmark’s largest lender also cuts dividend as it braces for potential fines

Payrolls Soar By 304K, Record 100th Consecutive Month Of Job Gains – ZH
Short Note on Jobs Report – Marc Chandler
US posts strong job gains in January amid shutdown – FT
U.S. Payrolls Rise 304,000, Shutdown Cools Wage Gains – BB

China: Plunging PMI ahead of the Pig’s yearNordea
The economy faces strong headwinds, as manufacturing activity deteriorated further in January. External demand has recovered thanks to trade talk progress, but domestic confidence is low. Chinese buyers could adapt to this by importing less.

China’s Caixin PMI plungesING
The Caixin manufacturing PMI result is almost a reversal of yesterday's official PMI release, with falling headlines, but some more upbeat new export orders figures

Why Cutting Interest Rates Won't Help ChinaBB
Such an easing measure, while tempting, won’t transmit through the broader economy and financial system.

Credit Suisse: Why China Is Facing A Hard Landing In 2019ZH
China remains the biggest macro risk currently. We would expect aggregate demand to continue to slow (owing to a slowdown in housing, manufacturing investment and exports and there needs to be a destocking) but we also would expect to see an accelerating policy response which should be enough to stabilize PMIs at lower levels.

Eco Day AsiaBB
China's Treasuries Tumble, Trump Trade Gain, U.S. Jobs * RIP Phillips Curve? Trump considers ex-pizza executive for Fed * Indonesia eyes $60 billion investment to challenge Singapore

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Caught between Putin and Trump - there appears to be one dominating voice in Brussels’ policy towards Russia — Washington

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Europe resists Trump — Romanian presidency, brought to you by Coke — Transparency rules!

Eco Day EuropeBB
Europe Inflation, China's Shopping List, U.S. Jobs * Euro-area inflation rate scheduled for release Friday * U.S., China make progress, stop short of announcing deal

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

Futures Flat On Lack Of Trade Progress, Global Econ Slump; Amazon Slide Hits Nasdaq

Eco Day USBB
Fed Conspiracy Theories, U.S. Jobs Day, European Data * Powell U-turn spawns speculation over what lies behind it * European data continues to highlight scale of challenge ahead

Kiinan teollisuuden näkymät heikentyivät entisestään | Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus ja työmarkkinaraportti, euroalueelta saadaan inflaatiolukuja | USA ja Kiina yhä etsimässä sopua kauppakiistoihin