Ferdinando
Giugliano: Italy’s Rulers Have a Serious Problem – BB
As
recession arrives, Rome’s growth forecasts look like fantasy. Even if the
League managed to ditch Five Star, it wouldn’t fix deep structural issues.
Sweden: PMI still
weak
– Nordea
The
manufacturing PMI declined somewhat to 51.5 in January. Order intake fell to
49.3.
Euro area annual
inflation expected to be 1.4% - Eurostat
The euro: From
monetary independence to monetary sovereignty – voxeu
While
the euro area has full ‘monetary independence’, ‘monetary sovereignty’ needs to
be built on the basis of a reassessment of the benefits and costs attached to
the international role of the euro.
Availability of high-quality
liquid assets and monetary policy operations: an analysis for the euro area – ECB
Markets,
banks, and shadow banks – ECB
BANKS
Deutsche Bank's
Slump Deepens as Trading Hit Hurts Revenue – BB
Top
line declines for eighth straight quarter on lower trading * Bank has first
annual profit in four years, steps up cost goal
It’s not Brexit
but Deutsche-it you want to worry about – Golem
XIV
Deutsche
is a dirty bank. But does this mean Deutsche could be brought up on corporate
criminal charges? Not a chance. To do that could mean it would lose its banking
license and that would be Deutsche-it. And Deutche-it would be far more
dangerous to the EU as a whole than Brexit.
Deutsche Shuts Its
Eyes and Hopes for the Best – BB
Much
of the bank’s turnaround plan relies on things outside its control.
Danske profit drop
highlights toll from money laundering scandal – FT
Denmark’s
largest lender also cuts dividend as it braces for potential fines
UNITED STATES
JANUARY PAYROLLS
Payrolls
Soar By 304K, Record 100th Consecutive Month Of Job Gains – ZH
Short
Note on Jobs Report – Marc Chandler
US
posts strong job gains in January amid shutdown – FT
U.S.
Payrolls Rise 304,000, Shutdown Cools Wage Gains – BB
OTHER
China: Plunging
PMI ahead of the Pig’s year – Nordea
The
economy faces strong headwinds, as manufacturing activity deteriorated further
in January. External demand has recovered thanks to trade talk progress, but
domestic confidence is low. Chinese buyers could adapt to this by importing
less.
China’s Caixin PMI
plunges
– ING
The
Caixin manufacturing PMI result is almost a reversal of yesterday's official
PMI release, with falling headlines, but some more upbeat new export orders
figures
Why Cutting
Interest Rates Won't Help China – BB
Such
an easing measure, while tempting, won’t transmit through the broader economy
and financial system.
Credit Suisse: Why
China Is Facing A Hard Landing In 2019 – ZH
China
remains the biggest macro risk currently. We would expect aggregate demand to
continue to slow (owing to a slowdown in housing, manufacturing investment and
exports and there needs to be a destocking) but we also would expect to see an
accelerating policy response which should be enough to stabilize PMIs at lower
levels.
REGULARS
Eco Day Asia – BB
China's
Treasuries Tumble, Trump Trade Gain, U.S. Jobs * RIP Phillips Curve? Trump
considers ex-pizza executive for Fed * Indonesia eyes $60 billion investment to
challenge Singapore
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Caught
between Putin and Trump - there appears to be one dominating voice in Brussels’
policy towards Russia — Washington
Brussels Edition – BB
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Europe
resists Trump — Romanian presidency, brought to you by Coke — Transparency
rules!
Eco Day Europe – BB
Europe
Inflation, China's Shopping List, U.S. Jobs * Euro-area inflation rate scheduled
for release Friday * U.S., China make progress, stop short of announcing deal
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Did
the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?
Five Things to
Start Your Day US
– BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
Futures
Flat On Lack Of Trade Progress, Global Econ Slump; Amazon Slide Hits Nasdaq
Eco Day US – BB
Fed
Conspiracy Theories, U.S. Jobs Day, European Data * Powell U-turn spawns
speculation over what lies behind it * European data continues to highlight
scale of challenge ahead
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan teollisuuden näkymät heikentyivät entisestään |
Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus ja työmarkkinaraportti,
euroalueelta saadaan inflaatiolukuja | USA ja Kiina yhä etsimässä sopua
kauppakiistoihin