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Friday, February 22

22nd Feb - European data still deteriorating #4028

Germany: Giving the creepsNordea
More terrible confidence data from Germany add to worries that early 2019 will be no better than the second half of last year. Sizable problems in the largest economy of the Euro area seriously question the outlook for the entire area.

Editorial: Europe Can’t Keep Coddling IranBB
Creating a special purpose vehicle to skirt U.S. sanctions is an ill-conceived idea.

ECB grapples with downside inflation risksABN AMRO
Our base case: ECB will signal that interest rates will be on hold for longer, while also announcing a new TLTRO. Interest rates will ultimately be on hold until December 2020. * Euro area’s manufacturing deeper into recession, services sector more resilient.

ECB Watch: Too relaxedNordea
The ECB remains rather optimistic about the outlook and is not close to announcing new monetary policy measures. The mounting evidence of a slowdown will force the central bank to really start discussing its options in March.

The ECB Has Policy Makers, Not SuperheroesBB
Europe’s economies are confusing, and we should manage expectations for monetary policy – not least because politicians need to step up.

Annual inflation down to 1.4% in the euro area Eurostat

China’s Australian Coal Ban Is Less Than Meets the EyeBB
Linking a humdrum shift in industrial policy to geopolitical considerations may just be a tactic to keep Beijing’s trading partners nervous.

Why We Can Forget About a Rate Cut in ChinaBB
Borrowing costs are already below neutral and lowering them won’t help funnel credit to private businesses, researchers argue.

Central bank tone moves asset pricesvoxeu
According to Ben Bernanke, “monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action”.Using data on policy rate announcements and press conferences by the ECB between 1999 and 2017, this column shows that central bank tone affects asset prices, even after controlling for policy actions and economic fundamentals. The results are consistent with the idea that communication tone is a monetary policy tool that allows central banks to affect the risk appetite of market participants and the risk premia they require.

Europe Enters Earnings Recession ZH

Five Things to Start Your Day Asia BB

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT

Brussels BriefingFT
Transatlantic tensions over dirty money - the US and EU governments are unhappy with Brussels’ money laundering blacklist

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Orbán goes too far — Brexit communication fails — Latvian PM in town

Danske DailyDanske Bank
German economic activity data to be eyed closely

Eco Day EuropeBB
Tense Trade Talks, Deflation Watch, SARB Inflation Goal * German foodies are shifting their country’s inflation basket * U.S., China prepare for Trump meeting with China trade chief

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler

Five Things to Start Your Day US BB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

"Sea Of Green" Across World Markets As Trade Talk Optimism Storms Back

Eco Day US BB
Trade Talks, ECB Loans, German Data, Italy's Isolation * Trump to meet with China’s trade chief Liu He on Friday * Nowotny says ECB has until summer to make call on bank funding

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Saksan teollisuuden näkymät synkkenivät entisestään | Myös euroalueen teollisuuden näkymät painuivat negatiivisiksi | Tänään tulossa Saksan talouselämän luottamuslukuja ja Riksbankin kokouksen pöytäkirja