This Week in
Earnings 18Q4
– LipperAlpha
Earnings Insight – Factset
Economy Week Ahead – BB
U.S.
and China Barrel Toward Trade-War Deadline * Israel, South Korea rate
decisions, Powell delivers testimony
Take Five: World
markets themes for the week ahead – Reuters
US-China
trade talks * US from shutdown to slowdown * ECB and low inflation * Brexit *
Elections
Key events in developed
markets next week
– ING
Will
UK MPs finally be happy with May's Brexit negotiations? Unlikely, but we're
keeping a close eye out for the Cooper-Boles amendment in case it re-emerges as
an alternative. Aside from Brexit, we turn towards the Eurozone's labour market
data to see if it has sustained its recent strength
Key events in EMEA
and Latam next week –
ING
The
weakness in German business surveys is a troubling sign for central and eastern
Europe. PMI data from Poland and the Czech Republic next week will shed light
on the depth of the slowdown in manufacturing while in Hungary, the focus turns
to the central bank
EcoWeek – BNP
PARIBAS
Considering
its considerable weight in world GDP, slower growth in China causes spillover
effects. Over the past 12 months, countries which are more exposed to China in
terms of exports have seen a bigger drop in their new export order assessment.
Week in Focus – Ransquawk
Week Ahead – Nordea
Chinese
imports of US goods have plummeted, in another intriguing chapter of the trade
conflict. Is China trying to trigger a US manufacturing meltdown? Meanwhile,
the Fed intends to end QT in late 2019, but is it already priced in?
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank
Trade
talks enter critical phase as Brexit deadline draws closer
Macro Weekly: Industrial
downturn deepens
– ABN
AMRO
A
string of data around the world related to exports and industry weakened
further. The past tightening of financial conditions combined with uncertainty
related to trade policy is probably still feeding through. Some of these forces
are turning for the better, but not yet sufficiently so to be a strong tailwind.
The good news comes in the shape of signs of resilience of domestic demand in a
number of key economies. On balance, we expect the global economy to regain
some traction later in the year, but a strong rebound, as we saw in 2016-17, is
unlikely
China Weekly – Danske
Bank
Credit
splash and metals add to signs of growth bottom * High-level trade talks get
more specific, stable CNY to be part of a deal * Is the US losing the battle
over Huawei in Europe?
Asia week ahead:
Deal, no deal, or extended truce – ING
Two
key events that will push everything else into the background next week – the deadline
to reach a deal on US-China trade conflict and the second Trump-Kim summit
Market Guide – Danske
Bank
Brexit
and trade war are still the main themes
Weekly Market Comment – Marc Chandler
While
the capital markets are calmer, the underlying uncertainties remain as stark as
they were in December.
FX weekly: QT
cannot run forever
– Nordea
An
end to QT by Q4 2019 will probably not be a big game changer for EUR/USD by
now. We will need a premature end to QT to lead EUR/USD higher. The Fed might
though decide to indirectly let excess liquidity shrink further, even after the
end of QT.
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
NDX,
RUT and DJIA have all risen 9 weeks in a row. Long win streaks like these have
a very strong propensity to continue higher over the next several months,
although an interim period of consolidation and retracement is frequent. That
SPX is now back at the top of its trading range from October to early December
perhaps makes that outcome likely now as well. But years that start as strongly
as 2019 have almost always (more than 90% of the time) added sizable gains the
rest of the year.
Week ahead – FT
Trump-Kim
summit, Brexit votes, Mobile World Congress