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Friday, February 8

8th Feb - Quiet, markets still weak #4016

Leonid Bershidsky: No, France and Germany Haven’t Fallen OutBB
Despite the appearance of a rift, Macron and Merkel have reached a compromise on the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

Emmanuel Macron Is Happy to Fight With ItalyBB
The French president is trying to use the spat to take back the initiative from the gilets jaunes and get his economic reforms back on track.

Sovereign Bonds since WaterlooCEPR
As in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns averaged 7% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of around 4% above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds.

John Authers: Bonds Faced Their Waterloo and Came Out WinnersBB
History shows that in the world of sovereign debt, you’re better off betting on the serial defaulters.

Global Factor PremiumsSSRN

John Authers: Eternal Market Patience Offers Eternal RewardsBB
Crunching 200 years of stock, bond, currency and commodity data reveals some shocking results.

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day AsiaBB
One Fed Hike, Europe Goes Bad to Worse, Trade Deal Risk * Malpass says World Bank should keep promise to cut China loans * Is American capitalism broken? Here are seven possible fixes

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT

Brussels BriefingFT
Trade war end zone - The US commerce department is due to issue a report declaring whether it believes automotive imports constitute a threat to US national security

Brussels Edition BB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Meet Germany’s new boss — Italy vs. France — Competition heats up

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Gloomy EU growth expectations weigh on market sentiment

Eco Day EuropeBB
Finland's Free Money, Europe Stumbles, Fed Followers * Economists see only one more rate hike by the Fed Reserve * Australia’s central bank cuts growth and inflation forecasts

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US Open ZH
Rally Ends: Global Stocks Break 6-Week Winning Streak; Iron Ore Soars

Eco Day USBB
Powell's Clues, Year of the Dove, Shifting BOE Outlook * Powell planted hint to U-turn with 2017 inflation pledge * Dovish Bank of England has economists scaling back hike views

Aamukatsaus: Suomi hiipuu Nordea
Suomesta julkaistaan tänään teollisuustuotannon volyymi-indeksi joulukuulta | Euroopan komissio leikkasi euroalueen kasvuennusteitaan, kauppasotahuolet palasivat jälleen | Venäjän keskuspankki kokousvuorossa tänään