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Monday, June 10

10th Jun - Trade angst and weak G20 #4110

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European banks and the global banking glutFrances Coppola

Olivier Blanchard: Europe Must Fix Its Fiscal RulesProject Syndicate
In an environment of persistently low interest rates and below-potential output, economic policymakers must rethink the prevailing approach to public debt. For the eurozone, this means creating a common budget, or at least overhauling the fiscal rules that have tied member-state governments' hands for no good reason.

ECB Floats Rate Cut Trial Balloon, Is "Open" To Cutting RatesZH

Italy can no longer afford to play games with BrusselsFT
A commission that feels it met Rome halfway last time will not want to show leniency now

Editorial: Italy's Budget Is Europe's ProblemBB
Punishing Italy plays right into the populists’ hands.

Ferdinando Giugliano: Italy's Scary Parallel Currency ThreatBB
Parliament’s proposals on so-called mini-BOTs aren’t really a credible threat to the euro, but you can see why they make investors anxious.

US Labour Market report adds pressure on the FedNordea
Auch. Pressure on the Fed after the May Labour Market report showed big disappointment.

Disappointing US jobs report: A huge missING
While we were expecting jobs growth to slow down this time, few could have predicted such weak payroll numbers. The poor reading only cements market expectations for Fed rate cuts ahead

Harr's view: The Fed-ECB divergenceDanske Bank
I believe the Fed will cut rates soon - likely by 25bp in July and a few more times during the autumn. In my view, it is dangerous for the ECB not to react to inflation expectations collapsing, which reflects that the market questions the lack of ability and willingness from the ECB to act.

World trade heading for the worst year since 2009ING
The strong setback to world trade growth at the end of 2018 and the damage from the trade war will make 2019 the worst year for trade since the financial crisis, with only 0.4% growth. 2020 is likely to show growth around 2%, but that improvement could vanish if the trade war drags on in 2020

Michael Bloomberg: Our Next Moonshot: Saving Earth’s ClimateBB
The Beyond Carbon initiative sets ambitious goals for switching to clean energy, and for building the political coalition necessary to do so.

Mark Gongloff: The Climate Crisis Is Here. It’s Time We Started Acting Like ItBB
We can’t just wait for 2021 and hope the best.

The Big Picture: Shadow Over Global EconomyDanske Bank
Re-escalation of the trade war between China and the US is weighing on global economic outlook. We have lowered our projections for global growth to 3.2% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020

Trade Impasse Has World’s Central Banks Priming Their EnginesBB
As central banks show increasing alarm about the world economy and a willingness to increase stimulus, finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations made little progress in curing the main threat of deepening trade tensions.

Central Bank ‘Heroes’ Fight the Trade War: Takeaways From G-20BB
Trade tensions and slowing economic growth dominated a gathering of global finance chiefs. That’s put the onus on central banks to act, even amid concerns their monetary policy arsenal has been worn thin.

‘Existential Threat’ to WTO Ignored by G-20 Statement, EU SaysBB

World Economy's Guardians Signal Readiness to Cushion Trade RiskBB
Officials repeat past commitments on foreign exchange policies * Mnuchin and Yi Gang have ‘candid’ talks on trade issues

Lagarde Says U.S.-China Trade War Looms Large Over Global GrowthBB

Trump says new China tariffs will kick in on Xi G20 no-showFT
US president threatens immediate imposition of trade levies on $300bn of additional imports

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Time to say goodbye — Team France fizzles — Blondes have more fun

Eco Day EuropeBB
Little Progress From G-20, ECB's Fears, BOJ's Arsenal * G-20 finance ministers agree on method to tax tech giants * Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve look more likely

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Collective Sigh of Relief Lifts Equities, Yields, and the Dollar

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

Global Stocks Race Higher On Trade Deal, Rate Cut Hopes As Yuan Tumbles, UK Economy Implodes

Aamukatsaus Nordea
USA:ssa selkeä pettymys työmarkkinoilta perjantaina, markkinat hinnoittelevat entistä enemmän Fedin koronlaskuja | Tällä viikolla julkaistaan useita inflaatiolukuja | USA ja Meksiko pääsivät sopimukseen laittoman maahanmuuton suhteen

Helpon lainanoton riskeistäPeter Nyberg