EUROPE
ECB
stimulus: Triggers versus tools – ABN
AMRO
Inflation
outlook and inflation expectations triggers for QE; euro trigger for rate cuts
Martin
Wolf: Weidmann casts a shadow over the ECB – FT
If
he simply validated the orthodox German view as president, it would be a
disaster
Italy’s
Top Euroskeptic Could Just Be Its Next Europe Minister – BB
Economist
who once called for dismantling monetary union may be populists’ choice to run
European affairs ministry
UNITED STATES
FOMC
preview - Cutting like it is the 90s – Danske
Bank
We
refine our Fed call and think the Fed will deliver a total of 75bp cuts in H2
19 (probably three 25bp cuts in July, September and December).
US-Mexico
migration deal strengthens Trump in use of tariff weapon – ING
US
steps up tariff threats as Mexico’s concessions seem to validate the US
negotiation strategy
OTHER
Renewed
Trade Dispute Casts Shadow Over Global Economy – Danske
Bank
Re-escalation
of the trade war between China and the US is weighing on global economic
outlook * We have lowered our projections for global growth to 3.2% in 2019 and
3.4% in 2020 * A modest recovery is projected on the back of a US-China trade
deal in H2 2019 and further stimulus by global central banks * Risks are skewed
to the downside from possible failure to strike a US-China trade deal and lack
of timely policy action * The risk of recession over the next year is still
relatively low given the room for further global policy support.
Trump
warns Xi of further tariffs if G20 talks fail to materialize – FT
Xi
Has Few Good Options After Trump’s Ultimatum on G-20 Meeting – BB
The
Chinese leader’s response could have far-reaching consequences for his
political future.
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Trump
Warns Xi * ‘Grave Concern’ Over Extradition * Global Stock Rally * Saudi,
Russia and Oil * Bear Market Ahead
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
Trump
Laments Disobedient Fed, Powell's Rate Questions * U.S. consumer inflation
expectations at lowest in two years * Pakistan’s government is set to unveil
austerity budget today
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
PBOC
Action * Re-Open * Shaky Oil * U.K. Jobs
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Italy’s
League eyes European Commission posts: Matteo Salvini has reaffirmed his
ambitions after last month’s EU parliament elections
Brussels
Edition –
BB
Soviet-Style
Planning
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Juncker
unplugged — Weber still kicking — Salvini flexes
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Markets
Take Another Small Step Away from the Edge
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
G-20
countdown * China policy moves * 10-1 * Risk-on rally continues
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Stock
Buying Frenzy Accelerates, Sending S&P Above 2,900 As China, Yuan Soar
Eco
Day US
– BB
Small-Business
Optimism, Fed Rate Surprise, iPhone Plan * Don’t be so sure the Fed is cutting
rates: Slok and Hatzius * U.S. iPhones can all be made outside of China if
needed
FINNISH
Trump kritisoi uudelleen Fediä liian korkeista
ohjauskoroista ja uhkaili Kiinaa tulleilla | Ison-Britannian työttömyysaste
huhtikuulta julkaistaan tänään | Markkinoilla oli positiivisävytteinen
maanantai
Tuovatko palkat joustoa ja kilpailukykyä talouteen
rahaliitossa – SP
Mitkä tekijät ohjaavat asuntojen hintoja ja tuotantoa? – SP
Tuoreet tilastotiedot viittaavat talouden odotettua
nopeampaan hidastumiseen – SP
Jotta 75 prosentin työllisyysaste saavutetaan, se
edellyttää huomattavasti nopeampaa talouskasvua – SP
Väestön ikääntyminen jarruttaa työllisyyden paranemista –
SP
Hidastuvaa kasvua kansainvälisen epävarmuuden varjossa – SP
Julkiseen talouteen tarvitaan lisää liikkumavaraa – SP
Kustannuskilpailukyky säilynyt aiempaa paremmalla tasolla
– SP
Teollisuus ei tue työn tuottavuuden kasvua entiseen
tapaan – SP