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Thursday, June 6

6th Jun - Mild dovish promise from ECB #4108

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Italy: Debt-driven excessive deficit procedure recommendation: take twoING
The move from the EU Commission, which did not come as a big surprise, will now force a clarification between the Italian government stakeholders on the future attitude towards Europe. Should a compromise not be reached, chances of a September political election would likely shoot up

Italy’s Government Pulls Together to Face Down EU Budget ThreatsBB
Premier and his deputies push back against EU move on debt * Conte echoes pledges by Salvini, Di Maio to change EU limits

Leonid Bershidsky: Look, the Center-Left Can Still Win ElectionsBB
The Social Democrats’ victory in Denmark is no accident.

Germany: Industrial outlook gets better but not good, yetING
Increasing industrial orders show that not all is bad, even though the outlook for industry in the Eurozone's largest economy remains shaky.

ECB Watched as Central Banks Shift Gears: Decision Day GuideBB
Updated forecasts and falling inflation expectations in focus * World’s major central banks are turning toward looser policy

EU’s Political Twister Seen Delaying Choice of New ECB PresidentBB
Governments are said to be focusing on EU Commission first * Late decision on ECB could unnerve investors amid weak economy

Monetary policy decisionsECB

Introductory statement to the press conferenceECB

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projectionsECB

Details of new targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III)ECB

ECB Decision ZH
ECB Extends Forward Guidance, Will Keep Rates Unchanged Until First Half Of 2020, Announces TLTRO Terms

ECB Will Keep Record-Low Rates for Longer Amid Inflation SlumpBB
Pledge on low rates extended, details on bank loans unveiled * Draghi to present updated economic forecasts at media briefing

ECB vows to hold rates at historic lows until mid-2020FT
Central bank extends earlier promise to maintain rates to late 2019 as inflation fears grow

ECB: As dovish as it can be without cutting ratesING
The European central bank extends forward guidance on rates and announces details of the third series of TLTROs

ECB ReactionZH
Draghi Disappoints As ECB Announcement Seen Less Than "Big Bang"; Euro Jumps, Stoxx Slides

ECB Cuts Long-Term GDP Growth, Inflation Forecasts ZH

ECB Watch: Ready to act with more QE and rate cuts ZH
While the ECB took another small step towards exiting ultra-easy monetary policy today, Draghi was clear that further rate cuts and net asset purchases remain in the tool box. Markets interpreted the message hawkishly.

Ferdinando Giugliano: Mario Draghi Demands a Lot of TrustBB
Investors will want to believe the more dovish message from the ECB chief’s press conference. But his departure makes it very hard to be certain.

Not sure how Draghi could have been more dovishABN AMRO
Further monetary easing remains on the cards * Rate cuts and QE put explicitly on the table * Forward guidance extended and TLTRO rate set as low as -0.3% * ECB revises projections for growth and inflation modestly lower * QE to be announced before year end *

ECB ReviewDaiwa
ECB not quite as dovish as expected * Forward guidance extended with an apparent easing bias * But TLTRO-III not as generous as TLTRO-II * ECB forecasts little changed * Inflation expectations and the euro among new ECB concerns

Fed speakers open door to rate cutsABN AMRO

Don't Fear The First Rate CutFat Pitch
The Fed may soon cut rates and that prospect is making investors nervous. Is the start of easing necessarily bad for equities? In short, probably not, at least not immediately. There's more to it than that.

El-Erian: Ask Not What the Fed Will Do, But Whether It Will WorkBB
The central bank is being pressured to solve problems far beyond monetary policy.

Global Outlook: Macro downgrades and global easing ABN AMRO
We have downgraded our global economic growth forecasts and expect a global monetary easing cycle to take shape by the end of this year. This implies a longer period of sub-trend economic growth rather than recession for the global economy

US-Mexico End Tariff Meeting Without Breakthough – ZH
US Prepares To Sell $2 Billion In Weapons To Taiwan – ZH
Trump threatens China with tariffs on a further $300 billion of goods – Reuters
China says will fight to end if U.S. escalates trade tensions – Reuters
China rare earth prices soar on their potential role in trade war – Reuters

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day AsiaBB
Fed Beige Book, Hong Kong Housing Hit, Third RBI Cut * What’s the economic cost if U.S.-Mexico trade talks fail? * Lagarde says trade risks become reality as growth slows

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe BB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
No money, more problems: Brussels shows restraint with Italy, partly to avoid being used as a political punching bag

Brussels EditionBB
Will Draghi Act?

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Social Democrats win Denmark — Good week for Council — Bad week for Parliament

Danske DailyDanske Bank
ECB meeting unlikely to be a game changer

Eco Day EuropeBB
ECB Decides, Vote on Next ECB Head, Fed Beige Book

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

Rally Fizzles As Trade Tensions Mount But Central Banks Say "Buy, Buy, Buy"

Eco Day USBB
U.S.-Mexico Trade Talks, Trump’s Big Stick, ECB Meeting * U.S. jobs report eyed for cracks as trade war weighs on growth * U.S. celebrates 10 years of growth, but no one’s partying

EKP kokoustaa tänään, Draghi tuskin pystyy yllättämään markkinoita kyyhkymäisyydellään | USA:sta saatiin eilen ristiriitaista talousdataa | EU antoi eilen Italialle varoituksen julkisen velan korkeasta tasosta