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Sunday, June 9

9th Jun - Weekly Previews #4109

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Take Five: World markets themes for the week aheadReuters

Key events in developed markets next weekING
Next week is likely to confirm market expectations for US rates are slightly overblown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty will carry on hurting the UK economy and sluggish eurozone industrial production doesn’t look like it is coming out of this phase anytime soon

The ECB has eased policy slightly, by extending its forward guidance on policy rates * On the other hand, the conditions on TLTRO III are slightly less generous than those on the previous operation * Importantly, a discussion has started within the Governing Council on how to react  should  the  environment  worsen

Week in Focus – Ransquawk

Week AheadNordea
Markets have told Fed to cut as soon as possible and history suggests that you should expect the Fed to cave in. The Fed needs to deliver big time to surprise markets dovishly by now. Meanwhile, Norges Bank will hike in June, despite global noise.

Weekly FocusDanske Bank

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
We have shifted to a more negative scenario concerning the trade conflict and its consequences * Poor German production and trade data in April * Central bankers are making a statement * My unique experience in Germany

Asia Week AheadING
We'll be watching a raft of economic releases from China and India next week for evidence about GDP growth and the impact of the trade war in the current quarter

China WeeklyDanske Bank
There is no sign of improvement in the war of attrition between the US and China as the trade war widens in scope * Chinese PMI data for May is mixed but we expect more weakness in the short term. There are more signs the trade war is also starting to hurt US manufacturing.

The Central Bank of Russia will be in the spotlight next week, with a number of global and local developments pushing the likely timing of a rate cut to next Friday. We suspect the Bank will reinforce its dovish guidance, signalling that further cuts may be on the horizon

Government bonds weeklyDanske Bank

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Policy Mix Flips and Will Take the Dollar with It

FX WeeklyNordea
Historically markets have tended to underestimate the magnitude of cuts before the inauguration of a Fed cutting cycle, why the -100 bp priced in by now may ultimately prove too little. EURUSD and gold usually gain in months ahead of Fed's first cut.

Week aheadFT
UK leadership race, Poland’s Duda visits US, Inditex results