EUROPE
The
aftershocks of the European elections and regional votes in Bremen continue to
affect German politics. Our tail risk of snap elections has increased
Leonid
Bershidsky: Germany Is Run by a Coalition of the Desperate – BB
Another
crisis in the Social Democratic Party is evidence of a systemic breakdown, but
not necessarily of the government’s collapse.
Companies
face widely differing costs of credit even within the eurozone
UBS+Deutsche
= a European Champion, on Paper – BB
A
merger makes strategic sense, but would also create a monster that nobody could
want to regulate.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
With
the economy facing new uncertainties and markets speculating about additional
easing measures, the ECB will be under pressure at this week’s meeting
Successor
to Mario Draghi needs a willingness to admit errors
Even
if downside risks have increased, the ECB’s baseline assessment will probably
not favour drastic new easing measures at this time. Extended forward guidance
and easy TLTRO terms may not be enough for a dovish market reaction.
As
yields sink deeper into negative territory, the warning for Mario Draghi is
getting louder.
Ireland’s
Philip Lane could downgrade economic outlook in his first week in the job
ECB
Preview: Further ECB downgrades and action beyond June – ABN
AMRO
TLTRO
-0.4%, dovish tone * Slightly more concerned outlook
GDP
growth is OK, but that metric looks backward. Forward-looking indicators show
that a calming presence is crucial at the ECB.
UNITED STATES
Everything
Is Up for Review at the Fed’s Big Policy Confab in Chicago – BB
Inflation
review takes place amid Trump sniping, trade jitters * Fed wonders if it’s taking
right approach to prices and jobs
A
dovish Fed could become even more so – Pictet
We
now believe that the Fed could deliver two ‘insurance’ rate cuts of 25bps in
coming months (up to now, we expected rates to be on hold in 2019-2020).
The
implications of a potential Fed policy shift – BlackRock
Inflation
expectations have sharply fallen recently, driving down U.S. government bond
yields and focusing attention on Fed policy. The market now expects three Fed
rate cuts by the end of 2020.
OTHER
A
new round of antitrust questions can’t go well for the company. The culture has
turned against tech since Google skated free in 2013.
Sound
at last? Assessing a decade of financial regulation: A new eBook – voxeu
The
first report in a new series on ‘The Future of Banking’, which tackles three
important areas of post-crisis regulatory reform: the Basel III agreement on
capital, liquidity and leverage requirements; resolution procedures to end ‘too
big to fail’; and the expanded role of central banks with a financial stability
remit.
Multinationals
Are the World’s Bogeymen Again – BB
From
FedEx to Huawei to Nissan, the atmosphere is turning chilly for cross-border
companies and executives.
TRADE WAR
Export-driven
nations like Singapore risk recession: Maybank * IMF blog says U.S. and China
consumers are the clear losers
China Demands Respect as It Blames U.S. for Breakdown in Talks – BB
Unreasonable
U.S. demands led to the collapse of talks in May * China’s prerequisites for
any deal are unchanged: Wang Shouwen
Release
comes as U.S. defense chief downplays tensions * China looks to erode
principles of ‘rules-based order’: report
Mexico
could tighten migration controls to defuse U.S. President Donald Trump's threat
to impose tariffs on Mexican goods, and said he expected "good
results" from talks planned in Washington next week
Goldman
Sachs and Citi on trade war with Mexico, market effects, exposure – ZH
REGULARS
China
asks for respect and blames the U.S. for trade war, investors are on alert as tensions rise, and
the world’s most resilient economy has got the wobbles.
Recession
in 9 Months, Fed's Confab, Australia Wobbles *
China demands respect as it blames U.S. for trade talks flop * Central
banks return to front line as trade-war risks multiply
Investors
are weighing up recent developments in two different trade wars, while the U.K.
ponders who its next leader will be just as U.S. President Donald Trump touches
down in London. The weekend also brought a surprise in German politics.
To
grow or not to grow: Sceptical countries will need convincing that admitting
new countries won’t bring more problems
German
surprise — Romania back from the brink — It’s Trump, baby!
Market
woes continue on trade war escalation
Tariff
Recession, Fed's Pat on the Back, ECB's Big Week * Everything’s up for review
at Fed’s big policy confab * Asia factories feel trade war pain led by South
Korea, Japan
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
US
Penchant for Tariffs Keeps Investors on Edge
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
Trump
in London * US removes India’s status as a developing country * M&A deals *
Markets fall
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
"Sea
Of Red" For Global Markets As Traders Brace For Recession Amid Global
Trade War
Eco
Day US
– BB
Everything’s
up for review at Fed’s big Chicago policy confab * Factories feel trade war
pain as recession risks increase
FINNISH
Kauppasota kiristi otettaan ja markkinat reagoivat
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