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Thursday, January 10

10th Jan - EU Open: ECB previews



ECB and BoE meetings ahead - no decisions expected, but especially possible ECB guidance will be listened closely. I collected some previews and comments below. Have a good one today.
 
Previously on MoreLiver’s:                  

Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Reference
Debt crisis live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: BOE and ECB decisions plus US jobless claimsTradingFloor
The market is expecting no changes in today's interest rate decisions from the BOE or the ECB, and jobless claims in the US will probably drift lower. No news is good news?

Market Preview: Focus on ECB and BoE interest rate decisionTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open higher Thursday. Markets await the ECB and BoE interest rate decision later today and the post meeting press conference for cues on their policy stances. The US initial jobless claims also holds interest today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
All eyes are on the ECB and BoE meetings – we do not expect changes to current policy. Strong Chinese trade data support Asian markets this morning. JPY continues to weaken on expectations of monetary policy easing from the BoJ.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kiinan ulkomaankauppa vilkastunut * EKP:lta tuskin lisää elvytystä * Saksan vaisut teollisuustuotantoluvut painoivat euroa ja tukivat maan korkoja

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Päivitimme lyhyeksi myytyjen (shortattujen) Suomi-yhtiöiden tilanteen ennen tuloskautta. Sanomassa (TOP 5 osake) kaikkein suurin shorttipositio suhteessa keskimääräiseen päivävaihtoon. Osakemarkkinan liukuminen kääntyi eilen loivaan nousuun. Kiinasta julkaistiin odotuksia parempia vientilukuja aamulla. Fokus tänään EKP:n korkokokouksessa ja Draghin kommenteissa. Osakefutuurit marginaalisesti plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta pörssiin.


MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
Draghi Spared as Confidence Mood Swing Quells ECB Rate-Cut TalkBB
Improving confidence indicators have eased pressure on the European Central Bank president to reduce the benchmark rate from a record low, a move fraught with the unknown consequences of possibly pushing the deposit rate below zero. 

ECB Preview: LTRO loans coming backTradingFloor

No policy action is expected, but ECB president Mario Draghi will probably be asked about threshold-based central banking. Also, banks could start returning the LTRO money early beginning from 29 January.


Euro in focus on ECB/ Spanish debt auctionTradingFloor


  PREVIOUSLY POSTED
ECB preview – no rate cut, but dovish toneNordea

Euro’s ‘Draghi Put’ Could Be Coming to an EndEuro Crisis / WSJ

Draghi Seeks Extended Calm in 2013 on Fading Euro EconomyBB

Price level targeting – next ECB easing step Nordea (pdf)
A temporary price level target path would signal that the ECB will keep interest rates at the current very low level for longer and specifically beyond the point where medium-term inflation is projected to return to 2% and until prices return to the level path consistent with 2% inflation on average.

ECB in Wait-and-See ModeWSJ
The ECB is likely to leave interest rates on hold for a sixth straight month on Thursday, amid tentative signs that the euro zone's battered economy is bottoming out although some economists don't rule out a rate cut at some point in the first quarter of the year.

Special Report: How Mario Draghi is reshaping Europe's central bankReuters
The banker now in charge of rescuing the euro wants his top staff to take Sundays off. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, eschews long meetings and refrains from lecturing his colleagues, senior ECB officials say.

ECB preview: Keep an eye on the excess liquidityDanske Bank (pdf)
 
UNITED STATES
Q#3 for 2013: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2013?Calculated Risk
My forecast is close to the previous two years, a gain of about 150K to 200K payroll jobs per month in 2013.