Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
US: V-Shaped Stock Recovery - But Rates And Credit
Ain't Buying It – ZH
EUROPE
The Coming Cyprus Challenge for the
Euro Area – PIIE
First, the
clock is ticking as the Cypriot government has announced it only has financing
through March 2013. No one, however, should expect a deal much before then. Second,
Cyprus’s financial problems derive largely from its
oversized banking system at more than 700 percent of GDP… But that is just the start of the
problems.
German views on aid for Cyprus – Bruegel
After the Cyprus’s application for EU aid in June
2012, the negotiations on the programme are now getting concrete. The
discussion in Germany about possible aid that is
estimated between EUR 12 and 17.5 billion for the period 2013-2016 is focusing
on the Cypriot financial sector which doesn’t enjoy a good reputation. In the
German media, Cyprus and its banks are widely seen
–rightly or wrongly - as a tax haven and a money-laundering base.
We don’t want your money – Nordea
Banks will
have the first chance to repay the 3-year money borrowed from the ECB on 30
January. Early repayments are likely to lead to expectations that excess
liquidity would fall notably, giving rise to pricing of higher short rates.
However, despite the repayments, plenty of excess liquidity will most likely
remain, keeping short rates very close to current levels.
Markets Hub: Another European Grand Compromise
Unwinding? – WSJ
Europe's agreement last summer to allow
banks to directly tap bailout funds for recapitalizations, is coming under
fire.
ECB’s Nowotny Doesn’t Expect Currency War
Despite Global Slowdown – WSJ
nor does he
see the euro on an upward trend over the long term.
A Breach in the Eurozone Dike – Project
Syndicate
kirjoittanut
Ashoka Mody
Throughout
the crisis, it has been widely assumed – at least so far – that the the
eurozone core would remain solid, and would continue to write the checks for
the periphery’s distressed governments and banks. But, while all eyes have been
on the European periphery, has the core been cracking?
Stable AAA Gives Scant Relief on Imbalances,
Katainen Says – BB
Swiss National Bank Still Has Its Work Cut Out – WSJ
The recent
sharp fall in the value of the Swiss franc against the euro certainly suggests
that the central bank’s strategy of capping the franc’s rise has been
successful. But the strategy has left the Bank with an unwelcome legacy of
euro-denominated reserves.
UNITED STATES
Citi On The Debt
Ceiling: "First Complacency, Then Horror" – ZH
Who said what, when?
An unofficial guide to Fed speak on QE3 – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Fed’s Kocherlakota Doesn’t See Structural Problem in
Job Market - WSJ
BANKS
JPMorgan
4th Quarter Profit Jumps 53% to $5.7 Billion – DealBook
/ NYT
Quarterly profits rise 53 percent – Reuters
53% Earnings Increase as Mortgage Fees Rise – BB
Beats Thanks To Ongoing Loan Loss Reserve Releases – ZH
JPMorgan ‘London Whale’
Did the CIO have a Kodak moment? Like, literally? – alphaville
/ FT
The London Whale, an oral history – alphaville
/ FT
JPMorgan Report on Trading Loss Takes Aim at Top
Executives – DealBook
/ NYT
How does JP Morgan respond to a crisis? – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
The Whale and the P&L (and the RWA) – alphaville
/ FT
The CIO curve trade that never was – alphaville
/ FT
Goldman Sachs
Beats On Solid Top Line Results – ZH
Profit Soars to $2.89 Billion in 4th Quarter – DealBook
/ NYT
Goldman Profit Blows Through Expectations – DealBook
/ NYT
Earnings soar on revenue gains, compensation cuts – Reuters
Profit Beats Analysts’ Estimates on Investments – BB
Reports Earnings Per Common Share of $14.13 for 2012 –
BB
Pay Pool Expands 6% as Employee Base Shrinks – BB
We’re back, too – alphaville
/ FT
BNY Mellon
Profit Rises 23% as Stock Market Boosts Assets – BB
Fourth-quarter
profit climbs 23 percent – Reuters
MACRO NUMBERS
U.S.
Industrial Production Rises 0.3% on Equipment Demand – BB
Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.3% in December
– Calculated
Risk
Industrial Production Increased Moderately In December
– The
Capital Spectator
Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Perk Up – PragCap
No, inflation still isn't a problem. – Wonkblog
/ WP
Key Measures show low inflation in December – Calculated
Risk
Factory, price data give hopeful signs for economy – Reuters
Fed Beige Book:
District-by-District Summary of Conditions – WSJ
Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded at
"modest or moderate" pace – Calculated
Risk
Builder Confidence unchanged in January – Calculated
Risk
NAHB Housing Index Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
ASIA
Sustained
stronger growth in China requires a turnaround in household
spending, which remains unusually low as a share of China's GDP.
OTHER
Daily Quickie – HistorySquared
Global Alpha’s Macro, Rates & FX Strategy:
Views for 2013 – Nordea
(pdf)
Summary here
National balance
sheets – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
Morgan Stanley
has an interesting (but, alas, privately-distributed) research note on the debt
crisis arguing that most developed governments are effectively insolvent.
IN FINNISH
Suomen valtiolla tuplanaaman tukipolitiikka – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Suomen valtion
tukipolitiikka näyttää ristiriitaiselta. Luottokelvottomien eurovaltioiden
tukemiseen on enimmillään luvattu jopa 50 miljardia euroa – jotta työpaikat ja
eläkkeet olisivat turvassa. Turun telakka ei saanut tuhannesosaa tuosta
tukimäärästä – ja nyt Turun seutu uhkaa menettää satoja työpaikkoja.
Kun työttömyys nousee tarpeeksi suureksi,
niin kyllä ne palkanalennukset menevät lävitse – tyhmyri
Suomen kestävyysvaje odottaa ratkaisua – EK
EU-komissio julkaisi
joulukuussa 2012 päivitetyt tiedot julkisen talouden pitkän ajan kestävyydestä
jäsenmaissa. Suomen kestävyysvajeeksi arvioidaan 5,8 prosenttia
bruttokansantuotteesta.
Selkävoitto
todellisuudesta – Hannu
Visti