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Saturday, January 12

13th Jan - Weekender: Economics




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CRISIS & RECESSION
Review of Theories of Financial CrisesNBER
In this paper, we review three branches of theoretical literature on financial crises. The first one deals with banking crises originating from coordination failures among bank creditors. The second one deals with frictions in credit and interbank markets due to problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. The third one deals with currency crises.

'Stimulus or Stymied?: The Macroeconomics of Recessions'Economist’s View

Are there "Peso Problem" recessions?Worthwhile

The Post-Crisis CrisesProject Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: In the shadow of the euro crisis and America’s fiscal cliff, it is easy to ignore the global economy’s long-term problems. But, while we focus on immediate concerns, they continue to fester, and we overlook them at our peril.

DISAGREEMENT & BAD REPUTATION
Finding economists’ common groundOpinion / Reuters
Concerned that laymen have come to see all economic proposals as being equally valid, the University of Chicago's business school has led an effort to figure out what economists agree on, where they diverge and how certain they are about their views.

Besides Gold, Economists Don't Agree On MuchBusinessweek

Is economics divided into warring ideological camps?noahpinion

Why do people think economists are charlatans?noahpinion

Room with a viewThe Economist
If economists agree on something, the public will almost certainly think differently

Economists Use Shoddy DataSlate
All too often, economists’ and policymakers’ theories are based on terrible statistics.

MONETARY POLICY
Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in PracticeMacroblog / FED

Is there a case for inflation targets? The UK versus the US.mainly macro

Did inflation targeting make inflation stickier?Worthwhile

What should a central bank do when producer and consumer prices diverge?Worthwhile

On the transient necessity of central bank independencealphaville / FT

More on Central Bank IndependenceTim Duy’s Fed Watch

Long to reign over usButtonwood / The Economist
Stephen King of HSBC has an interesting piece in today's FT on how central banking is becoming politicised, suggesting that the era of independent central banking is coming to an end. There is a contrasting blog from Gavyn Davies also on the website

The negative rate bluffalphaville / FT
Negative rates, as we’ve discussed before, are a funny thing. On the one hand they can send an immensely powerful message. On the other hand they have the power to seriously and dangerously disrupt core economic mechanisms

Michael Woodford Continues to Do God’s WorkEconoMonitor

The Bank of Canada's success and failureWorthwhile

The inflation dragon is just around the cornermainly macro

FISCAL POLICY
Why the multiplier doesn't matternoahpinion

Avoiding the B wordmainly macro
Most people sense that when a public figure avoids answering a question, this is because they have something to hide. So in doing so, the effect is both to suggest that the policy will indeed require more borrowing, and that this is a problem, which is why the interviewee does not want to talk about it.

Consider the book valueFree exchange / The Economist
The ratio of a country’s public debt to its annual income is an undeservedly popular indicator. Presumably, we care about this ratio because we want to determine whether today’s policies burden future generations. But the government’s debt is just a collection of income-generating assets owned and serviced by people in the private sector—often the same people. 


OTHER
When economic optimism will finally be vindicatedOpinion / Reuters
Events in 2013 are starting to look good. Short-term cyclical forces are turning positive; long-term trends in globalization and technology are regaining momentum; and economic policy revolutions are becoming entrenched around the world.

Global house pricesThe Economist
Our latest round-up shows that many housing markets are still in the dumps

Economic History RoundupBB

The Natural ExperimenterMIT Technology Review
MIT economist Josh Angrist’s meticulous ­methods have influenced scholars for two decades. Now he’s zeroing in on what makes some schools better than others.

In New Paper, Professor Thoma Overlooks The Contribution of Financial BloggersBonddad

Nine Facts about Top Journals in EconomicsNBER
How has publishing in top economics journals changed since 1970?