Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe
Morning MarketBeat: Wobbly Tech Stocks Face Earnings
Parade – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
BoJ & Good German ZEW – Marc
to Market
EUROPE
Analysis: No respite for euro zone in long
rebalancing slog – Reuters
The euro
zone crisis is entering a new, treacherous phase for governments, which can
only cross their fingers that slow-burn reforms will pay off before voters get
fed up with austerity and high unemployment.
In Euro Zone, Signs of Progress and Fears of
Complacency – DealBook
/ NYT
Europe's political leaders have taken
important steps to improve spending discipline among euro members, but have yet
to address some serious flaws in the structure of the euro zone.
Merkel and Hollande dream of EU 'utopia' – euobserver
German and
French leaders encouraged young people to dream of a "utopian"
federal state with common taxation on the eve of the Elysee treaty anniversary.
EU should act on press violations, report says – euobserver
Media
freedoms throughout the Union
are menaced by political interference, commercial pressures, and advertising
interest, a new report says.
The three dimensions of the euro area crisis – ECB
Speech by
Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Asia-Europe Economic
Forum conference on European troubles, Asian worries, Brussels, 21 January
2013
Euro Area Grapples With ESM Rules as Legacy
Assets Loom – BB
Ministers
seek an agreement in the first half of this year on how and when the 500
billion-euro ($668 billion) European Stability Mechanism can bypass governments
and provide direct help to banks.
Dijsselbloem Preaches Balanced Budgets as Euro
Chief – BB
EU states to get go-ahead for tax on trading – Reuters
Germany, France and nine other euro zone countries
will get the go-ahead on Tuesday to start work on a financial transactions tax,
a measure likely to unsettle banks and trading houses but which will please
voters and could raise much-needed revenue.
ECB
FI Strategy – LTRO and the early repayment
option – Nordea
(pdf)
On Friday,
January 25, the ECB will announce the first amount to be repaid of the three
year LTROs. We estimate EUR 200bn to be paid back during 2013, with limited
market impact in the short term.
UK
Monetary targetry: Might Carney make a
difference? – voxeu.org
The Bank of
England’s Governor-elect has argued for a switch to a
nominal GDP target. This column points out
problems with nominal GDP targets, especially in levels. Among other
issues, nominal GDP targeting means that uncertainty surrounding future real growth rates
compounds uncertainty on future inflation rates. Thus the switch is likely to
raise uncertainty about future inflation and weaken the anchoring of inflation
expectations.
The collapse
of the eurozone no longer seems likely, thanks to its members' decisions to
coordinate their fiscal policies more closely. But it is exactly that tighter
integration that has made many Euro-skeptic Brits want to opt out of the EU
altogether.
Seven hazards in David Cameron’s intended
European policy – europp
/ LSE
This week
sees UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s long
anticipated (and delayed) speech on the UK’s relationship with the EU. Michael
Emerson sets out seven major hazards that his expected policy positions will
have to overcome, ranging from defining its core objective, problems with the
referendum process, and the economic costs of generating uncertainty over the
EU/UK relationship.
Right speech, right time? – Open Europe
Can Cameron
tackle the tough questions about Britain and Europe? David Cameron will tomorrow make
his long-awaited speech on Europe and Britain’s role within it.
PIIGS
UNITED STATES
The boom this time – Free
exchange / The Economist
The case
for cautious bullishness on the American economy is strong. For the moment, it
looks as though America will avoid a damaging fiscal
showdown and a major fiscal policy contraction, both of which were considered
major threats to the 2013 outlook. This isn't a sure thing, but the outlook is
much better than it was a few months ago.
Why I am worried – Humble
Student
I suppose
that I should be happy and bullish. US equities staged a significant upside
breakout last week, indicating positive price momentum.
OTHER
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Everybody’s Talkin – BNY
Mellon
... But
will it make any difference to the protagonists in “currency wars”?
Entering Into 2013 - Part 4 – Short
Side of the Long
Let us now turn our attention to all commodities and
not just the precious type.
Meanwhile, In Global
FX Markets Today... – ZH
Citi: If a weaker currency is going to be the ticket
to faster GDP growth, you have to
be open to the possibility that you will need lots of it. You end up with a
currency war, not because depreciations have such a big impact on activity, but
because you need a big depreciation to get any significant impact.
Sovereign Risk Index – Black
Rock
Interactive
tools, worth a check
World in 2050 – PwC
Economics (pdf)
The BRICs
and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities
IN FINNISH
Japani ja
keskuspankin rahanluontioperaatiot – johan se onkin jo niiden aika! – tyhmyri
Suomea uhkaa
"sulkeutuminen" - Ruotsi menee ohi – TE
Ernst & Youngin mukaan Suomi on jäämässä jälkeen
Ruotsista globalisaatiokehityksessä.
Työttömyyden lasku
lähinnä tilastoharhaa – Nordea
(pdf)
Tuoreet tiedot eivät muuta käsitystämme työmarkkinoiden suunnasta.
Talven ja kevään mittaan näemme huonompia työllisyys- ja työttömyyslukuja ennen
kuin talous alkaa uudelleen toipua vuoden
2013 aikana.
Navigaattori –
Auringonnousua Aasiassa – Nordea
(pdf)
Kiinassa ja Japanissa talousnäkymät ovat piristymässä * BRIC-valuutat
- vahvistumisen vuosi 2013 * Euriborien nousu on alkanut * Yrityksen tulokseen
kohdistuva valuuttakurssirisk