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Papertrading
22nd Oct 2012 – 9th Jan 2013
57 market days
354 trades (=708 transactions), mostly EURUSD and USDJPY
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| Daily performance |
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Tomorrow’s Tape: Wells Fargo Earnings, Trade Deficit –
WSJ
US: Forget 'Rotation'; 2013 Is The Great 'Risk'
Recoupling So Far – ZH
Reference
Debt crisis
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Dijsselbloem to replace Juncker as Eurogroup
chief – euobserver
Outgoing
Eurogroup chair Jean-Claude Juncker has hinted that his replacement will be
Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem.
Germany wants a second attempt to reach an
EU budget deal on 7-8 February, but EU Council chief Van Rompuy is unsure.
PIIGS
Beginner’s guide to Italy’s general election
2013 – The
World / FT
ECB
MEETING
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
Draghi Hails ‘Positive Contagion’ as Euro
Markets Stabilize –
BB
Draghi said
the euro-area economy will slowly return to health in 2013 as the region’s bond
markets stabilize after three years of turmoil.
ECB's sees recovery in late 2013 – Reuters
The euro
zone will recover later in 2013 and there are already signs of stabilisation,
the ECB said after it held interest rates at a record low.
Recap: ECB Meeting – The
Euro Crisis / WSJ
Draghi Does Not Hint at Change in ECB Policy – Marc
to Market
Draghi keeps the door wide open for more
easing, but it will require more weakness – Nordea
Mario's waiting game – Free
exchange / The Economist
Existential
worries about the euro area may have gone away for the time being, removing the
darkest cloud of all. But there are good reasons for doubting whether things
will turn out as well as Mr Draghi thinks.
ECB meeting - no more rate cuts – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Overall, we
are slightly more optimistic on the growth outlook than the ECB staff
projection and we believe it is likely that the rate discussion will fade as
the euro area returns to positive growth in H1.
Eurozone on its way back to growth, Draghi says – euobserver
ECB chief
Mario Draghi has spoken of "positive contagion" in the eurozone - a
rare moment of optimism since the crisis started four years ago.
ECB Afterthoughts: Dull – TradingFloor
ECB left
rates unchanged, signaled no immediate rate cut or introduction of new
unconventional measures, and as everyone else prints and targets thresholds,
the euro strengthened.
UNITED STATES
The Debt Limit: Not a Credible Way to Control
Spending – EconoMonitor
The debt
limit is expected to become binding (i.e., extraordinary measures will become
exhausted) between February 15 and March 1. The limit needs to be raised by
$1.1 trillion to get through 2013 and by $2.1 trillion by the end of 2014
Right now
it appears the drag from austerity will probably offset the pickup in the
private sector - and we can expect another year of sluggish growth in 2013 probably
in the 2% range again.
OTHER
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Currency Bores - What Policymakers Really Mean
When They Talk About FX – ZH
Steven
Englander of Citi: It is hard to find a policymaker who hasn’t actively tried
to talk his currency down.
Global Alpha Weekly – Nordea
(pdf)
Monetary
policy: Rather late than sorry * Bank of Japan – Hawks need not apply