Previously on MoreLiver’s:
ECONOMICS
Make it so – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
The useful justification for fiscal deficits at a time
of recession is the Keynesian one of supporting demand. But in the current
crisis, one could argue that governments were simply providing a service -
supplying a sufficient quantity of safe assets to meet the demands of
investors.
The End of
Economists' Imperialism – HBR
The big issues in
macroeconomics: the fiscal multiplier – Crooked
Timber
Ideology, Business Cycles and Macroeconomics – Worthwhile
Monetary Rage – Krugman /
NYT
Ideology and
Economics – Krugman
/ NYT
Why a “free” market
changes everything – alphaville
/ FT
Something very significant may be happening to labour
and the capital reallocation process. And arguably it’s down to technology and
crowd-sourcing.
IMF’S
MISTAKE
IMF: Coping with High
Debt and Sluggish Growth – The
Big Picture
IMF Austerity Mea
Culpa? – The
Big Picture
A number of folks are looking at the latest IMF paper
as a startling admission of the failure of austerity
IMF admits more
mistakes – Macrobusiness
The IMF: we were
right about being wrong. But normally we aren’t. – The
World / FT
IMF Details Errors in
Calling for Austerity – Economics
/ WSJ
The International Monetary Fund is revising its
metrics on how fast governments should cut their budgets, with the IMF's top
economist making the case that Europe's fiscal
diets were too severe.
An amazing mea culpa
from the IMF's chief economist on austerity – Wonkblog
/ WP
MARKETS & TRADING
Big Banks Are “Black
Boxes,” Disclosure is “Woeful” – The
Big Picture
This month’s must read cover story of The Atlantic was
written by two of my favorite writers: Pulitzer Prize winner Jesse Eisinger of
Pro Publica (and Portfolio, WSJ, and TSCM) and
Frank Partnoy of University of San Diego School of Law, author of F.I.A.S.C.O.,
Infectious Greed, The Match King, and – most recently – WAIT: The Art and
Science of Delay.
Some four years after the 2008 financial crisis,
public trust in banks is as low as ever. Sophisticated investors describe big
banks as “black boxes” that may still be concealing enormous risks—the sort
that could again take down the economy. A close investigation of a supposedly
conservative bank’s financial records uncovers the reason for these fears—and
points the way toward urgent reforms.
Eunuchs of the
Universe: Tom Wolfe on Wall Street Today – The
Daily Beast
Tom Wolfe headlines Newsweek’s first digital-only
issue with a return to Wall Street 25 years after his classic novel The Bonfire
of the Vanities. Read his searing indictment of how the world of finance went
wrong and who the new Masters of the Universe are.
Do reporters make
good stock pickers? – MarketWatch
How last year’s picks by media big shots fared over
the past year
Book Bits – The
Capital Spectator
Narula’s No. 1 Hedge Fund Gains 38% Betting on
Mortgages – Bloomberg
Markets
The 100 Top-Performing Large Hedge Funds – Bloomberg
Markets
The 20 Top-Performing Large Hedge Funds – Bloomberg
Markets
IBS reversion edge
with QuantShare – Intelligent
Trading
Weekend Reading for
Financial Advisers: Fiscal Cliff, Behavioral Finance, and Poker – CFA
Institute
Beancounters, having
resolved not to resolve differences in derivatives netting, instead have cool new
footnotes – alphaville
/ FT
Netting of the mark-to-market of derivatives positions
is attractive. It’s more efficient when it comes to posting and receiving
margin, decreasing the amount of operational and counterparty risk.
Sundheim, Taking
Smart Risks – Reading
The Markets
Playing it safe (alternatively stated, staying in your
comfort zone) is fraught with dangers: to wit, you don’t win, you don’t grow,
you don’t create, you lose confidence, and you don’t feel alive.
Generalized Momentum and Flexible Asset
Allocation (FAA): An Heuristic Approach – SSRN
The effects
of combining momentum, volatility and correlation selection criteria to form an
equally weighted portfolio of the three best funds
Entering Into 2013 - Part 1 – The
Short Side of The Long
The global
economy has been showing a bit of resilience as of late, with the manufacturing
index recovering back towards 50.2 in December from 49.6 in November.
Stabilisation is seen in US and China at present, while Eurozone and Japan continue to deteriorate. However,
the question is weather or not the 2011/12 economic soft patch is a bottom from
which another expansion period will re-start?
10 Surprises for
2013: Blackstone – Econmatters
What's Going To
Matter In 2013 – Moneybox
/ Slate
2013 Outlook &
Forecast – Kiron Sarkar
/ The Big Picture
I believe that the current year should be positive for
equity markets, in particular in H2 2013, subject to adverse geopolitical
issues.
The Year Ahead – Worthwhile
I am cautiously optimistic about the year ahead based
on what I have seen to date and what I can see.
Even Europe should see some
improvement.
2013 calendar of
important events – Lighthouse
IM
Entering Into 2013 -
Part 1 – The
Short Side of The Long
2013 Starts with 50
Bold Predictions – EconMatters
A Year on the Brink – Project
Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: The two main surprises in 2012
were the slowdown in emerging markets, which was slightly sharper and more
widespread than anticipated, and Europe’s embrace of some truly remarkable
reforms – though still far short of what is needed. Looking to 2013, the
biggest global economic risks are there and in the US.
The Political Economy
of 2013 – Project
Syndicate
Mohamed A. El-Erian: Watching America’s national
leaders scramble in the closing days of 2012 to avoid a “fiscal cliff” that
would plunge the economy into recession was yet another illustration of an
inconvenient truth: messy politics remains a major driver of global economic
developments. This will become even more evident worldwide in 2013.
Almost All of Wall
Street Got 2012 Market Calls Wrong – BB
A Year on the Brink – Project
Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: The two main surprises in 2012
were the slowdown in emerging markets, which was slightly sharper and more
widespread than anticipated, and Europe’s embrace of some truly remarkable
reforms – though still far short of what is needed. Looking to 2013, the
biggest global economic risks are there and in the US.