US is
closed today, so my next regular post will be Tuesday’s European open. To catch up after the weekend, may I suggest taking a look at my earlier Weekly Support and The World-posts - they should get you sorted for the week.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup
– Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Market Preview: EU finance ministers meeting
and German PPI eyed
– TradingFloor
European
markets are expected to open higher Monday amid receding worries about the
persistent deadlock in US debt ceiling talks. Meanwhile,
market participants are keeping an eye on the EU finance ministers meeting and
German PPI slated later today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Republicans
ready to extend the federal debt limit by three months. Slightly stronger JPY
as Bank of Japan starts its two-day meeting where aggressive measures to weaken
the yen further are expected. Market movers today: Today’s Bank of Japan starts
two-day meeting, Eurogroup meeting, US bank holiday and presidential inauguration
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Kuluttajaluottamus laahaa USA:ssa * Japanin keskuspankilta
aggressiivisempia elvytystoimia? * Odotukset Japanin keskuspankin elvytyksestä
painoivat jeniä
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Viime perjantaina markkinat sulkivat nousussa, kun USA:n
republikaanit suunnittelevat kolmen kuukauden pidennystä USA:n velkakattoon. Tuloskausi
käyntiin tällä viikolla myös Suomessa (torstaina Basware, Kone ja Nokia 4Q12). Osakefutuurit
marginaalisesti plussalla, indikoiden flättiä tai nousuavausta pörssiin. OMX
HEX:ssä vain 1.4%:n tuottopotentiaali? Tavoitehinnat ei ole mielestämme kovin
luotettava tuoton selittäjä.
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
Great Graphic: Europe's Unit Labor Costs and Productivity – Marc
to Market
Italy now has the highest unit labor
costs in the euro area and has seen no substantial improvement since the onset
of the crisis. France also has seen little
improvement. The labor market reforms
are pending and may change change this, but it is too early to tell. In addition, Portugal's improvement seems to have stalled
recently.
Surprising Loss For Merkel Coalition In
Lower-Saxony Ahead Of German General Election – ZH
UK
The political economy of Brixit – The Current Moment
Europe inherited a mixed economy social
contract from the ruins of WWII. This
remains generally popular among the public.
Nevertheless, elites want to unwind it.
In France, Germany and elsewhere the way to do this is
through EU directives; this way you can make a show of resistance as if it were
not your idea all along. But Britain has gone neoliberal on its own,
domestically, without any push from Brussels.
They don’t need the fig leaf (EconoSpeak’s comment)
So, we’re
still waiting for Cameron’s big speech on Europe, which has grown a Twitter hashtag
(#TheSpeech) during its repeated postponements. Curiously, if the prime
minister had set out to make the case for the European Union, he couldn’t have
done better. As the dithering continues, the polls are shifting steadily
towards more support for staying in the EU.
PIIGS
Why Cyprus Is Big Enough To
Cause Trouble – ZH
UBS: The conditionality that comes with this programme does not go down
well with the current Cypriot government, whereas politicians in core eurozone
countries have started to point fingers at the small economy’s low-tax, soft
banking regulation business model. What emerges is the threat of another
deadlock
The Troika
is remaking the energy sector, with the consequence of rising prices in a way
that looks like a sectoral supply shock that is very obviously distinct from
the demand side disturbance.
ASIA
Bank of Japan preview: BoJ to
succumb to political pressure and raise inflation target – Danske
Bank (pdf)
We expect
the inflation target to be raised from 1% to 2% and the ceiling for purchases
of financial assets to be raised by JPY10trn to JPY86trn. However, there are
increasing signs that the asset purchase
programme
could be ‘open-ended’ until the inflation target is reached. It is also possible
that the interest rate on banks’ excess reserves will be cut from 0.1% to zero
and the maturity of BoJ’s government bond purchases will be increased.
OTHER
Location, Location, Location – alphaville
/ FT
The 2013
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey – a piece of work often
quoted by bubble hunters and rubbished by the property bulls
FX Comment: White Flags in the Currency War – Nordea
What's Next in 2013? 12 Critical Answers for
the Year Ahead – Blackrock
Around The World In 22 Charts – ZH
Much
digital ink has been spilled about the US oil & gas boom, and whether or
not it will lead to energy independence, or even turn the US into an oil exporter. Now a
“confidential” report by the German version of the CIA, the Bundesnachrichtendienst,
seeped to the surface. It sketched out the boom’s geopolitical consequences.
Biggest loser? China.