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Tuesday, January 1

1st Jan - Preview of 2013



Some “2013”articles I’ve seen. Tips welcomed – betray other blogs and snitch!


As usual, I will update this post if I see good material. Check the much longer 2012 as well. For some reason most writers had more to say on the past year than the new one. Not sure if that is a sign of realism or just feelings of helplessness. Writer's personal cliff?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:                  

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World news in 2013: the stories to watch forThe Guardian
With elections due in many key countries, the shifting sands of national power and global influence will be making headlines

Stories to watch for in 2013Marginal Revolution

Raising the curtain on 2013FT
FT writers predict dramas and triumphs for the next year



What's Going To Matter In 2013Moneybox / Slate

EUROPE
What 2013 Will Bring to the Euro ZoneWSJ

Agenda 2013: the next steps in completing EMUECB
Speech by Jörg Asmussen at Internationaler Club Frankfurter Wirtschaftsjournalisten, Frankfurt am Main, 19-Dec-2012

Euro zone rescuer Draghi faces daunting 2013Reuters
With two short sentences, the head of the European Central Bank took the heat out of the euro zone crisis this year. In 2013 Mario Draghi has to live up to even bigger expectations.

The Eurozone’s Delayed ReckoningProject Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini: The tail risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone or a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013. But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond.

Thoughts on the Euro’s Outlook in 2013PIIE
Despite the numerous predictions of its demise, the euro is alive and well at the end of 2012. Indeed, it has again held its value against other currencies during the year,1 confounding skeptics just as it did a year ago. As 2012 comes to a close and the last European Union Council of the year has ended—there have been seven in 2012!—it is time to take stock. As someone who ended 2011 on a positive note for the euro, I am happy to report that the outlook remains positive for 2013.

Europe’s Fiscal Integration and Other Thoughts on the Euro Area in 2013PIIE
In response to several inquiries, I offer a few more comments on Europe in 2013, in particular why I do not view a delay in euro area fiscal integration as a disaster, why the United Kingdom will not leave the European Union and what I view as the major downside risk in 2013.

What to expect from the EU in 2013Open Europe

UNITED STATES
Why 2013 should be a good year for the U.S. economyWonkblog / WP

Three ways Washington could mess up the recovery in 2013 Wonkblog / WP

How the rest of the world could put the U.S. at risk in 2013Wonkblog / WP

10 Questions (and Answers) for 2013PragCap
I’m doing a pre-emptive Q&A this week covering a macro view of 2013.  I generally don’t believe in forecasting a full year out because I think it’s impossible, but that doesn’t mean we can’t provide some general guide posts for the year given what we currently know.

Ten Economic Questions for 2013Calculated Risk

MARKETS
2013 Financial Market OutlookMoney & Markets

Goldman Sachs: Top Ten Market Themes for 2013The Reformed Broker

Outrageous Predictions 2013: Extreme complacencySaxo Bank
or direct pdf

Some outliers for 2013alphaville / FT
Deutsche's 13 Outliers For '13ZH


Stocks to soar as world money catches fire, Calvinist Europe left behindThe Telegraph

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Bears beware. A monetary revolution is underway.

In 2013, the great global unravelingMark Leonard / Reuters
After two decades of globalization, this year will see each of the big political theaters re-erecting barriers and focusing more on domestic repairs than on global expansion. 


OTHER

The Big Issues For 2013Econospeak


Tech and Media: 6 Business Predictions for 2013TIME

ADDED LATER

Entering Into 2013 - Part 1The Short Side of The Long
The global economy has been showing a bit of resilience as of late, with the manufacturing index recovering back towards 50.2 in December from 49.6 in November. Stabilisation is seen in US and China at present, while Eurozone and Japan continue to deteriorate. However, the question is weather or not the 2011/12 economic soft patch is a bottom from which another expansion period will re-start?

10 Surprises for 2013: BlackstoneEconmatters

What's Going To Matter In 2013Moneybox / Slate

2013 Outlook & ForecastKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
I believe that the current year should be positive for equity markets, in particular in H2 2013, subject to adverse geopolitical issues.

The Year AheadWorthwhile
I am cautiously optimistic about the year ahead based on what I have seen to date and what I can see.  Even Europe should see some improvement. 

2013 calendar of important eventsLighthouse IM

Entering Into 2013 - Part 1The Short Side of The Long

2013 Starts with 50 Bold PredictionsEconMatters

A Year on the BrinkProject Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: The two main surprises in 2012 were the slowdown in emerging markets, which was slightly sharper and more widespread than anticipated, and Europe’s embrace of some truly remarkable reforms – though still far short of what is needed. Looking to 2013, the biggest global economic risks are there and in the US.

The Political Economy of 2013Project Syndicate
Mohamed A. El-Erian: Watching America’s national leaders scramble in the closing days of 2012 to avoid a “fiscal cliff” that would plunge the economy into recession was yet another illustration of an inconvenient truth: messy politics remains a major driver of global economic developments. This will become even more evident worldwide in 2013.