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EUROPE
Germany
concluding statement Article IV Mission – IMF
GREECE
Greece orders IMF payment as eurogroup
meets – FT
IMF paid
but how much money does Greece have left? – Reuters
Dijsselbloem
remarks after Eurogroup meeting – EU
Eurogroup
statement on Greece – EU
Greece
tapped reserves at IMF to make debt repayment: government officials – Reuters
Greece Dodges Economic Bullet With
Progress Toward Deal – BB
Chances
Greece will leave euro zone less than one in four, traders say: Reuters poll – Reuters
Greece Using SDR Reserves To "Repay"
IMF; 1 Month Countdown Begins – ZH
UNITED KINGDOM
Cameron
must quickly set out when and how he will fight the referendum – FT
No change
in monetary policy, watch Inflation Report on Wednesday – Danske
Bank
Katainen’s
Next Mission: Working With the U.K. on EU Overhauls – WSJ
UNITED STATES
EMPLOYMENT DATA
US Jobs Data Suggest Weather-Related
Soft Patch At An End – Alpha
Now
More
Employment Graphs – Bill
McBride
Demographics,
Unemployment Rate and Inflation – Bill
McBride
Research:
Natural Rate of Unemployment under 5% and Falling – Bill
McBride
U.S. Job Openings Slide As Hires,
Separations Rise – WSJ
BLS: March Jobs
Openings at 5mio, Up 19% YoY – Bill
McBride
OTHER
Global
interest rates have once again started to rise – Short Side of Long
This is €1trn
less nuts – FT
It took 102
trading days for Bund yields to rally from 68bp to their all-time low of 7bp. It
took just 15 days after that to jump back to 68bp again.
Bonds: Massacre
to be followed by resurrection – Nordea
Core bond
markets appear to be in meltdown mode. Yields are surging higher, while the ECB
is staying put. The rapidity of the yield move without an ECB response has
already undermined the credibility of the central bank’s bond purchases, and is
weakening the potential of the programme to reach its goals. Nevertheless,
yields will resume falling in the not-too-distant future, with ECB action or
without it, but the damage to confidence has been done.
Neil
Staines: Optimism, divergence and data – TF
Today we
look at the recent developments in the bond and interest rate markets and
assess the likely implications for FX going forward.
Goldman
Sachs Doesn’t Believe the Oil Rally has Legs – WSJ
This is
not the oil rally you’re looking for – FT
Majors
& Scandies: Central bank and rates forecasts – Nordea
While the
recent jump in yields is a reminder that Euro-area debt is not a one-way bet,
we expect a renewed fall in EUR yields over the summer, followed by a very
gradual increase throughout the remainder of the forecast horizon. In the US, a central bank starting to
normalise policy and an economy showing increasing signs of price pressures
favour gradually higher USD yields.
Majors
& Scandies: FX forecast – Nordea
Renewed
strength in the US labour market should mitigate
market concerns after the weak growth in Q1. We therefore expect EUR/USD to
resume its move towards parity. The UK election results reduced
uncertainty and the BoE is still expected to hike rates in Q4, helping the GBP.
The BoJ’s new QE in October will weaken the JPY. Improving global growth
prospects will support commodity currencies and drive the CHF downwards.
EM FX: Financial
forecasts – Nordea
The current
relief seen in many EM currencies will most likely not last long and we remain
bearish EM FX in our new financial forecasts. We have made significant changes
to our forecast for the RUB and for the TRY as well as for the Russian and
Turkish central banks. We now believe the RUB could come under some pressure in
the near term, while the TRY already has weakened.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed Dodges Bullets in Shelby Reform Proposals * Sen. Shelby to Unveil
Legislation Heightening Fed Scrutiny * Fed’s Dudley: Markets Shouldn’t Be Surprised
When Fed Hikes Rates * FDIC Chief Martin Gruenberg: Big Bank Failure Won’t
Imperil System * PBOC Tries to Steer Loans to Small Firms
Daily
Macro – WSJ
There’s two
ways of looking at the bond selloff: one is that the excesses of the recent
past, when eurozone bond yields got to record lows, are being unwound and that
the market is stuck in a painful reckoning with those positions; the other is
that bonds are adjusting to a rosier outlook and the idea that inflation could
creep back into the eurozone and other economies, which at this stage would be
welcome.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Chinese
authorities react to ongoing weak data with another round of policy rate cuts *
Impact of lower oil prices on US labour market manageable * ECB steps up the
pace of asset purchases somewhat
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Today
Swedish inflation numbers and Riksbank minutes * Elevated volatility continuing
in German bond markets: yields up, equities down * EUR/USD started to fall
again
Morning
Markets – TF
The UK has
been one of the developed world’s stronger economies in terms of overall
growth. But business data suggests that growth is at risk of decelerating in
the second quarter, and today's manufacturing data is again unlikely to provide
much of a boost to broader economic growth.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
US Dollar Falls
as Bond Sell-Off Continues
Daily
Shot – TF
The global
bond selloff resumed in earnest on Monday, this time led by US treasury notes.
Meanwhile, China's central bank has cut its benchmark rate.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Cameron
considering bringing EU referendum forward to 2016 * Meeting of Eurozone
finance ministers fails to bridge key gaps with Greece * UK to opt out of EU plan for binding
refugee quotas * IMF calls on Germany to boost infrastructure spending *
US Open – ZH
Global Bond
Rout Returns With A Vengeance; 10Y Treasury Tumbles Under Key Support; Futures
Pounded
FX
Update – TF
USDJPY has
been too quiet for too long – is this the quiet before the storm if yields
continue to rise? Elsewhere, the GBP may highly vulnerable to a setback if
upcoming event risks aren’t loudly supportive of more hawkish expectations from
the BoE.
From the
Floor – TF
As Sterling
continues to ride high against the greenback on the back of a weave of election
euphoria, all is quiet on the Greek front as default worries begin to fade. But
both of these situations seem out of kilter with reality: GBP is overbaked and
Greece still represents a major threat to the euro.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Cameron
will finally have to present concrete reform demands
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Riksbank tarvitsee järeämpää arsenaalia | Valtionlainojen
korot jälleen nousussa | BoE:n myöhemmän koronnoston todennäköisyys kasvanut
Suomi rikkoo EU:n taloussääntöjä, varoitus tulossa – YLE
Ylen tietojen mukaan Suomi joutuu selvittämään komissiolle,
miksi julkisen talouden velka ja vaje ovat kasvaneet yli sovittujen rajojen. EU-komissio
kertoo keskiviikkona EU-maille maakohtaiset suosituksensa.
Pasi Sorjonen: Suomi taas taantumassa? – Nordea
Jatkuiko Suomen talouden alamäki Q1:llä? Luultavasti jatkui.
Ensimmäinen arvio BKT:n kehityksestä saadaan keskiviikkona aamulla, kun
Tilastokeskus julkaisee yritysten liikevaihtotietoihin perustuvan pikaennakon.
Matti Apunen: Suomi–Etelä-Helsinki-sanakirjassa
"konservatiivi" on taantunut ja umpimielinen – HS
MOT 800 miljoonan verovedätys – YLE Areena
Jyrki Kataisen hallituksen tekemän yhteisöveron roiman
alennuksen piti tuoda investointeja, työpaikkoja ja verotuloja. Toisin kävi.
Toimittajana Tuomas Hyytinen.
HALLITUSPELI
Juha Sipilä hallituskolmikosta: "Nyt me olemme yksi
hallituspuolue" – Verkkouutiset
Hallitusneuvottelut alkoivat hyvässä hengessä – Suomen
Uutiset
Stubb Välimeren maahanpyrkijöistä: Suomi ei halua
pakolaisten pakkokiintiöitä - MTV
Eerola: Välimeren kautta tulevat ovat laittomia
maahanmuuttajia – Suomen
uutiset
DATA
Vähittäiskaupan myynti maalisk. +0,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Roger Wessman: Vähittäiskauppa vakiintui alkuvuona – Marketnoze
Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto joulu-helmik. +6,7% - Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma tammi-maalisk. +1,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus