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Tuesday, May 12

12th May - Greece loans from IMF to pay IMF

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Germany concluding statement Article IV Mission IMF

Greece orders IMF payment as eurogroup meets – FT
IMF paid but how much money does Greece have left? – Reuters
Dijsselbloem remarks after Eurogroup meeting – EU
Eurogroup statement on Greece – EU
Greece tapped reserves at IMF to make debt repayment: government officials – Reuters
Greece Dodges Economic Bullet With Progress Toward Deal – BB
Chances Greece will leave euro zone less than one in four, traders say: Reuters poll – Reuters
IMF Plays with Matches, Greece gets Burned – Marc Chandler
Greece Using SDR Reserves To "Repay" IMF; 1 Month Countdown Begins – ZH

Cameron must quickly set out when and how he will fight the referendum – FT
No change in monetary policy, watch Inflation Report on Wednesday – Danske Bank
Katainen’s Next Mission: Working With the U.K. on EU Overhauls – WSJ
US Jobs Data Suggest Weather-Related Soft Patch At An End – Alpha Now
More Employment Graphs – Bill McBride
Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation – Bill McBride
Research: Natural Rate of Unemployment under 5% and Falling – Bill McBride
U.S. Job Openings Slide As Hires, Separations Rise – WSJ
BLS: March Jobs Openings at 5mio, Up 19% YoY – Bill McBride

Global interest rates have once again started to riseShort Side of Long

This is €1trn less nutsFT
It took 102 trading days for Bund yields to rally from 68bp to their all-time low of 7bp. It took just 15 days after that to jump back to 68bp again.

Bonds: Massacre to be followed by resurrectionNordea
Core bond markets appear to be in meltdown mode. Yields are surging higher, while the ECB is staying put. The rapidity of the yield move without an ECB response has already undermined the credibility of the central bank’s bond purchases, and is weakening the potential of the programme to reach its goals. Nevertheless, yields will resume falling in the not-too-distant future, with ECB action or without it, but the damage to confidence has been done.

Neil Staines: Optimism, divergence and dataTF
Today we look at the recent developments in the bond and interest rate markets and assess the likely implications for FX going forward.

Goldman Sachs Doesn’t Believe the Oil Rally has LegsWSJ
This is not the oil rally you’re looking forFT

Majors & Scandies: Central bank and rates forecastsNordea
While the recent jump in yields is a reminder that Euro-area debt is not a one-way bet, we expect a renewed fall in EUR yields over the summer, followed by a very gradual increase throughout the remainder of the forecast horizon. In the US, a central bank starting to normalise policy and an economy showing increasing signs of price pressures favour gradually higher USD yields.

Majors & Scandies: FX forecastNordea
Renewed strength in the US labour market should mitigate market concerns after the weak growth in Q1. We therefore expect EUR/USD to resume its move towards parity. The UK election results reduced uncertainty and the BoE is still expected to hike rates in Q4, helping the GBP. The BoJ’s new QE in October will weaken the JPY. Improving global growth prospects will support commodity currencies and drive the CHF downwards.

EM FX: Financial forecastsNordea
The current relief seen in many EM currencies will most likely not last long and we remain bearish EM FX in our new financial forecasts. We have made significant changes to our forecast for the RUB and for the TRY as well as for the Russian and Turkish central banks. We now believe the RUB could come under some pressure in the near term, while the TRY already has weakened.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Dodges Bullets in Shelby Reform Proposals * Sen. Shelby to Unveil Legislation Heightening Fed Scrutiny * Fed’s Dudley: Markets Shouldn’t Be Surprised When Fed Hikes Rates * FDIC Chief Martin Gruenberg: Big Bank Failure Won’t Imperil System * PBOC Tries to Steer Loans to Small Firms

Daily MacroWSJ
There’s two ways of looking at the bond selloff: one is that the excesses of the recent past, when eurozone bond yields got to record lows, are being unwound and that the market is stuck in a painful reckoning with those positions; the other is that bonds are adjusting to a rosier outlook and the idea that inflation could creep back into the eurozone and other economies, which at this stage would be welcome.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Chinese authorities react to ongoing weak data with another round of policy rate cuts * Impact of lower oil prices on US labour market manageable * ECB steps up the pace of asset purchases somewhat

Today Swedish inflation numbers and Riksbank minutes * Elevated volatility continuing in German bond markets: yields up, equities down * EUR/USD started to fall again

Morning MarketsTF
The UK has been one of the developed world’s stronger economies in terms of overall growth. But business data suggests that growth is at risk of decelerating in the second quarter, and today's manufacturing data is again unlikely to provide much of a boost to broader economic growth.

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
US Dollar Falls as Bond Sell-Off Continues

Daily ShotTF
The global bond selloff resumed in earnest on Monday, this time led by US treasury notes. Meanwhile, China's central bank has cut its benchmark rate.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron considering bringing EU referendum forward to 2016 * Meeting of Eurozone finance ministers fails to bridge key gaps with Greece * UK to opt out of EU plan for binding refugee quotas * IMF calls on Germany to boost infrastructure spending *

Global Bond Rout Returns With A Vengeance; 10Y Treasury Tumbles Under Key Support; Futures Pounded

FX UpdateTF
USDJPY has been too quiet for too long – is this the quiet before the storm if yields continue to rise? Elsewhere, the GBP may highly vulnerable to a setback if upcoming event risks aren’t loudly supportive of more hawkish expectations from the BoE.

From the FloorTF
As Sterling continues to ride high against the greenback on the back of a weave of election euphoria, all is quiet on the Greek front as default worries begin to fade. But both of these situations seem out of kilter with reality: GBP is overbaked and Greece still represents a major threat to the euro.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Cameron will finally have to present concrete reform demands

Riksbank tarvitsee järeämpää arsenaalia | Valtionlainojen korot jälleen nousussa | BoE:n myöhemmän koronnoston todennäköisyys kasvanut

Suomi rikkoo EU:n taloussääntöjä, varoitus tulossaYLE
Ylen tietojen mukaan Suomi joutuu selvittämään komissiolle, miksi julkisen talouden velka ja vaje ovat kasvaneet yli sovittujen rajojen. EU-komissio kertoo keskiviikkona EU-maille maakohtaiset suosituksensa.

Pasi Sorjonen: Suomi taas taantumassa?Nordea
Jatkuiko Suomen talouden alamäki Q1:llä? Luultavasti jatkui. Ensimmäinen arvio BKT:n kehityksestä saadaan keskiviikkona aamulla, kun Tilastokeskus julkaisee yritysten liikevaihtotietoihin perustuvan pikaennakon.

Matti Apunen: Suomi–Etelä-Helsinki-sanakirjassa "konservatiivi" on taantunut ja umpimielinenHS

MOT 800 miljoonan verovedätysYLE Areena
Jyrki Kataisen hallituksen tekemän yhteisöveron roiman alennuksen piti tuoda investointeja, työpaikkoja ja verotuloja. Toisin kävi. Toimittajana Tuomas Hyytinen.

Juha Sipilä hallituskolmikosta: "Nyt me olemme yksi hallituspuolue" – Verkkouutiset
Hallitusneuvottelut alkoivat hyvässä hengessä – Suomen Uutiset
Stubb Välimeren maahanpyrkijöistä: Suomi ei halua pakolaisten pakkokiintiöitä - MTV
Eerola: Välimeren kautta tulevat ovat laittomia maahanmuuttajia – Suomen uutiset

Vähittäiskaupan myynti maalisk. +0,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Roger Wessman: Vähittäiskauppa vakiintui alkuvuona – Marketnoze
Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto joulu-helmik.  +6,7% - Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma tammi-maalisk. +1,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus