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Wednesday, May 13

13th May - EMU's future leaked

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Ashoka Mody: Europe’s Integration Overdrive Bruegel
On the anniversary of the Greek bailout and the Schumann declaration, we should step back and loosen European ties 

Future of the eurozone: Leaked sherpas’ note FT
Almost forgotten in this mix is eurozone leaders’ promise to revisit the future of their monetary union with a new “four presidents’ report” on how to fix the remaining shortcomings, due to be presented in June 
Presenting Spain's "Part-Time" Recovery ZH

5 Headwinds Facing the Eurozone Economy WSJ

Towards a European agenda on Migration – EC
Commission adopts ambitious migration plan – Politico
Here’s Europe’s Military Plan to Counter People Smugglers – WSJ

Europe Preparing Greek Bankruptcy Loan "In Event Of Grexit" – ZH
Stephen Pope: Greece uses a financial foray to fund IMF invoice – TF
EU Said to Consider Plan for Greece in Event of Euro Exit – BB

Finance ministers give Osborne cold shoulder – Politico
Europe refuses to be rushed on UK demands for treaty change – FT
The upsides and downsides of an early EU referendum – Open Europe
Inflation Report broadly as expected – we still expect November hike – Danske Bank

  Q1 GDP (mixed, but stronger)
GDP up by 0.4% in the euro area and the EU28 – Eurostat
Eurozone GDP Live – WSJ
Surprising GDP numbers are worth a second look – Nordea
France outpaces Britain, Germany with fastest growth in 2 years – Reuters
French growth leapfrogs Germany’s in Q1 – Reuters
French GDP rises 0.6%, Germany slows to 0.3% - FT
German Growth Slows More Than Forecast as France Picks Up – BB
Eurozone GDP: Reactions From the Market – WSJ
EU economic growth outpaces US – Politico
Euro area GDP growth strengthens but less than expected – Danske Bank
Eurozone GDP growth picks up – ABN AMRO

GDPNow Latest forecast – FED
Q2 GDP Forecast Cut To 0.7% By Atlanta Fed – ZH

  RETAIL SALES (Q1 weakness spills to Q2)
Retail Sales unchanged in April – Bill McBride
Retail sales unchanged in April on weak autos, furniture – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint Again – BB
US Retail Sales Hint At Recession, Weakest Since Financial Crisis – ZH
Markets React to Weak Retail Sales Report – WSJ
US consumption weakness extends into Q2 – Danske Bank
The Misleading Read on Retail Sales – The Fat Pitch
First Quarter Casts Shadow on Spring – WSJ

China, when a hot money outflow threatens to become a torrentFT

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Perfect storm for EUR bonds will not continue, but watch out for Fed hikes

New financial forecastsNordea
Strong labour market indicators in April support our view that the low US GDP growth in Q1 was a weak spot that will not derail Fed's intention to start hiking rates this year. The USD is therefore expected to strengthen again. There are no indications that the ECB would consider reducing its bond purchasing programme despite stronger economic growth indicators from the Euro zone. Long-term yields in the Euro zone are expected to decline somewhat again after the sell-off in April/May.

Goldman Fears Crude Oil's Self-Defeating Rally ZH
Sell in May...The Economist
Bond Market Meltdown Deconstructed: Five Charts That Explain WhyBB

Long dated EUR bonds will sell off despite the ECB QE program * US 30y yields hit 3%, my long standing estimate of fair value * EU equities has significant exposure to EU duration * Risk Parity performance will wane sharply going forward * EUR is likely to bounce towards 1.15

Konzept #4DB Research
Articles: Bank reporting—information overload * Compliance lessons from the dirt diggers * Are insurers a systemic risk? * Bank bond seniority blues * Credit’s fallen angel paradise
Columns: Book review—The man behind China’s miracle * Ideas lab—How to avoid bank runs * Conference spy—DB shipping summit * Infographic—Getting connected in Asia

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: ECB to Stay the Course Even as Growth Picks Up  *Democrats Greet Shelby Banking Bill With Skepticism * Fed’s Williams: No Pressure to Act on Rates * Eurozone GDP Growth Accelerates, Boosted by France, Italy * Bank of England Cuts U.K. Growth Forecasts

Daily MacroWSJ
What markets want is for yields to return to some kind of positive-territory heights, reflecting more normal growth and inflation expectations, without surging so far as to kill borrowing activity.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Eurogroup more positive on progress in negotiations with Greece…but gaps still need to be bridged, while Greece is running out of money * US small business more optimistic, suggesting that economic activity will firm after a weak first quarter

No stopping the core sell-off, or so it seems * Riksbank most likely will have to do more * New financial forecasts

Morning MarketsTF
Investors will be looking toward GDP estimates from the Eurozone and retail sales data from the US in order to gauge the speed and strength of recovery in the two economies. With fears about Greece seemingly ebbing, today's Eurozone data will likely provide direction on the recent rally in EUR.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar-Bloc Firms, While Stabilization of Bond Markets Lifts Equities

Daily ShotTF
Bonds around the world came under pressure again yesterday. Bond prices stabilised later in the day, but traders remain jittery. Here are the yields for the 30-year treasury as well as the French and the German 10-yearr government bonds.
Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Return Of Bond Market Stability Pushes Equity Futures Higher

From the FloorTF
Today's Flash Q1 figures for the Eurozone are up in approximately 45 minutes and this one could be pivotal for a number of the major currency pairs and have crossover into other markets too.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
The legacy of America's bailouts: Revisiting how Washington rescued economy's commanding heights

Suomi taas taantumassa? | Eurooppa elpyy Espanjan ja Saksan vedolla | Ruotsin inflaatio jäi odotuksista

Analyysi: Kuntien valtionosuusjärjestelmä jarruttaa kaupungistumistaVATT
VATT: Valtionosuudet toimivat päinvastoin kuin niiden pitäisiTE
"Politiikan pitäisi kohdella eri alueilla asuvia ihmisiä samalla tavalla"Verkkouutiset

Henri Myllyniemi: Hyviä ja huonoja avauksiaUS

Roger Wessman: Euroalueen kasvu yhä laajemmalla pohjallaMarketnoze

Risto Pennanen: Paniikki pois Suomen taloudestaTalSa
Suomen talous kaipaa kunnostusta, mutta paniikin sijaan kaipaamme uutta tekemistä.

Terveisiä Smolnaan (1/2) Kuuden miljardin sopeutusOsmo Soininvaara

Henri Myllyniemi: Seuraava hallitus aikoo palata noudattamaan tasavallan lakeja!US

EU-komissio odottaa Suomelta kesäkuussa kehysbudjettiaYLE
Ylen saamien tietojen mukaan komissio odottaa uudelta hallitukselta kesäkuussa kehysbudjettia, jossa määritellään vuoden 2016 sopeutus ja siihen tarvittavat toimet.

EU varoittaa velasta, hoputtaa hallitusta päätöksiinKL
Eurokomissaari sanoo, että mahdollinen päätös Suomen joutumisesta erityistarkkailuun tehdään lähiviikkoina.

Vihriälä: Komission varoitus on oppimestari-Suomelle kiusallinenTalSa
Suomen alijäämät alkavat huolestuttaa jo ulkomaillakin, mikä lisää tulevan hallituksen paineita.

Sopu EU-linjasta kertoo perussuomalaisten ja kokoomuksen hallitushaluista – YLE
Hallitusneuvotteluissa aletaan puida talousasioita – vaikein vaihe alkaa – YLE
Neuvottelulähteet arvioivat: Stubbista elinkeinoministeri, Rehnistä ulkoministeri – YLE
Hallitusneuvottelijat sopivat EU-politiikasta – "unionia uudistettava" – YLE
EU-linjaukset – VN
Ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan linjaukset – VN
Maahanmuuttolinjaukset – VN
Suomen tuleva maahanmuuttopolitiikka – Professorin ajatuksia

Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui joulu-helmik. runsaat 3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto kasvoi joulu-helmik. 5,0% vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto maaliskuussa edelliskuukauden tasolla – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio painui huhtikuussa -0,2 prosenttiin – Tilastokeskus