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EUROPE
On the
anniversary of the Greek bailout and the Schumann declaration, we should step
back and loosen European ties
Future
of the eurozone: Leaked sherpas’ note – FT
Almost forgotten in this mix is eurozone leaders’ promise to revisit the future of their monetary union with a new “four presidents’ report” on how to fix the remaining shortcomings, due to be presented in June
5 Headwinds
Facing the Eurozone Economy – WSJ
EU MIGRATION PLAN
Towards a
European agenda on Migration – EC
Commission
adopts ambitious migration plan – Politico
GREECE
Europe Preparing Greek Bankruptcy Loan
"In Event Of Grexit" – ZH
Stephen
Pope: Greece uses a financial foray to fund IMF invoice – TF
EU Said to
Consider Plan for Greece in Event of Euro Exit – BB
UNITED KINGDOM
Finance
ministers give Osborne cold shoulder – Politico
Europe
refuses to be rushed on UK demands for treaty change – FT
The upsides
and downsides of an early EU referendum – Open
Europe
Inflation
Report broadly as expected – we still expect November hike – Danske
Bank
Q1 GDP (mixed, but stronger)
GDP up by 0.4% in the euro area and the EU28 – Eurostat
EU economic
growth outpaces US – Politico
GDPNow
Latest forecast – FED
UNITED STATES
RETAIL SALES (Q1 weakness spills to Q2)
Retail Sales
unchanged in April – Bill
McBride
Retail
sales unchanged in April on weak autos, furniture – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint Again – BB
US Retail
Sales Hint At Recession, Weakest Since Financial Crisis – ZH
Markets
React to Weak Retail Sales Report – WSJ
US consumption weakness extends into Q2
– Danske
Bank
The
Misleading Read on Retail Sales – The
Fat Pitch
First
Quarter Casts Shadow on Spring – WSJ
ASIA
OTHER
Yield
Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Perfect
storm for EUR bonds will not continue, but watch out for Fed hikes
New
financial forecasts
– Nordea
Strong
labour market indicators in April support our view that the low US GDP growth
in Q1 was a weak spot that will not derail Fed's intention to start hiking
rates this year. The USD is therefore expected to strengthen again. There are
no indications that the ECB would consider reducing its bond purchasing
programme despite stronger economic growth indicators from the Euro zone.
Long-term yields in the Euro zone are expected to decline somewhat again after
the sell-off in April/May.
Goldman
Fears Crude Oil's Self-Defeating Rally – ZH
Sell in
May... – The Economist
Bond
Market Meltdown Deconstructed: Five Charts That Explain Why – BB
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
Long dated
EUR bonds will sell off despite the ECB QE program * US 30y yields hit 3%, my
long standing estimate of fair value * EU equities has significant exposure to
EU duration * Risk Parity performance will wane sharply going forward * EUR is
likely to bounce towards 1.15
Konzept
#4 – DB
Research
Articles: Bank
reporting—information overload * Compliance lessons from the dirt diggers * Are
insurers a systemic risk? * Bank bond seniority blues * Credit’s fallen angel
paradise
Columns: Book
review—The man behind China’s miracle * Ideas lab—How to avoid
bank runs * Conference spy—DB shipping summit * Infographic—Getting connected
in Asia
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Blackstone’s
Take: ECB to Stay the Course Even as Growth Picks Up *Democrats Greet Shelby Banking Bill With
Skepticism * Fed’s Williams: No Pressure to Act on Rates * Eurozone GDP Growth Accelerates, Boosted by France, Italy * Bank of England Cuts U.K. Growth
Forecasts
Daily
Macro – WSJ
What
markets want is for yields to return to some kind of positive-territory
heights, reflecting more normal growth and inflation expectations, without
surging so far as to kill borrowing activity.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Eurogroup
more positive on progress in negotiations with Greece…but gaps still need to be
bridged, while Greece is running out of money * US small business more
optimistic, suggesting that economic activity will firm after a weak first
quarter
Eye-Opener – Nordea
No stopping
the core sell-off, or so it seems * Riksbank most likely will have to do more *
New financial forecasts
Morning
Markets – TF
Investors
will be looking toward GDP estimates from the Eurozone and retail sales data
from the US in order to gauge the speed and strength of recovery in the two
economies. With fears about Greece seemingly ebbing, today's Eurozone data will
likely provide direction on the recent rally in EUR.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar-Bloc
Firms, While Stabilization of Bond Markets Lifts Equities
Daily
Shot – TF
Bonds
around the world came under pressure again yesterday. Bond prices stabilised
later in the day, but traders remain jittery. Here are the yields for the 30-year
treasury as well as the French and the German 10-yearr government bonds.
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Return Of
Bond Market Stability Pushes Equity Futures Higher
From the
Floor – TF
Today's
Flash Q1 figures for the Eurozone are up in approximately 45 minutes and this
one could be pivotal for a number of the major currency pairs and have
crossover into other markets too.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT
The legacy
of America's bailouts: Revisiting
how Washington rescued economy's commanding heights
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomi taas taantumassa? | Eurooppa elpyy Espanjan ja Saksan
vedolla | Ruotsin inflaatio jäi odotuksista
Analyysi: Kuntien valtionosuusjärjestelmä jarruttaa
kaupungistumista – VATT
VATT: Valtionosuudet toimivat päinvastoin kuin niiden
pitäisi – TE
"Politiikan pitäisi kohdella eri alueilla asuvia
ihmisiä samalla tavalla" – Verkkouutiset
Henri Myllyniemi: Hyviä ja huonoja avauksia – US
Roger Wessman: Euroalueen kasvu yhä laajemmalla pohjalla
– Marketnoze
Risto Pennanen: Paniikki pois Suomen taloudesta – TalSa
Suomen talous kaipaa kunnostusta, mutta paniikin sijaan
kaipaamme uutta tekemistä.
Terveisiä Smolnaan (1/2) Kuuden miljardin sopeutus – Osmo
Soininvaara
Henri Myllyniemi: Seuraava hallitus aikoo palata
noudattamaan tasavallan lakeja! – US
EU-KOMISSIO
SUOMELLE
EU-komissio odottaa Suomelta kesäkuussa kehysbudjettia
– YLE
Ylen saamien tietojen mukaan komissio odottaa uudelta
hallitukselta kesäkuussa kehysbudjettia, jossa määritellään vuoden 2016 sopeutus
ja siihen tarvittavat toimet.
EU varoittaa velasta, hoputtaa hallitusta päätöksiin –
KL
Eurokomissaari sanoo, että mahdollinen päätös Suomen
joutumisesta erityistarkkailuun tehdään lähiviikkoina.
Vihriälä: Komission varoitus on oppimestari-Suomelle
kiusallinen – TalSa
Suomen alijäämät alkavat huolestuttaa jo ulkomaillakin, mikä
lisää tulevan hallituksen paineita.
HALLITUSPELI
Sopu EU-linjasta kertoo perussuomalaisten ja kokoomuksen
hallitushaluista – YLE
Hallitusneuvotteluissa aletaan puida talousasioita – vaikein
vaihe alkaa – YLE
Neuvottelulähteet arvioivat: Stubbista elinkeinoministeri,
Rehnistä ulkoministeri – YLE
Hallitusneuvottelijat sopivat EU-politiikasta – "unionia
uudistettava" – YLE
EU-linjaukset – VN
Ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan linjaukset – VN
Maahanmuuttolinjaukset
– VN
Suomen tuleva maahanmuuttopolitiikka – Professorin
ajatuksia
DATA
Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui joulu-helmik. runsaat
3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto kasvoi joulu-helmik. 5,0% vuoden
takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto maaliskuussa edelliskuukauden
tasolla – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio painui huhtikuussa -0,2 prosenttiin – Tilastokeskus