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EUROPE
Juncker
Lost Support of His Own Group on Migration but Won Applause by the Rest – euinside
Secrets
of the Brussels media machine – The Press
Project
Wolfgang
Münchau: All British political parties are eurosceptic now – FT
What's
worth staying up for on election night? – New
Statesman
Greek
Notes – Bill
Craighead
UNITED STATES
By
insisting on a rate hike the Fed has "imported" some of the global
slowdown – Sober
Look
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Bernanke Missive Fires At Taylor Rule, Misses Financial Stability * Fed’s
Mester: ‘All Meetings Are on the Table’ For Rate Rises * Fed’s Williams: Policy
Rules Don’t Work Well in Real World * IMF to Brighten View of China’s Yuan * Greece
Back on the Brink, Five Years After First Bailout
Daily
Macro – WSJ
We’ve had
more signs that Asia
and Europe are going separate ways. Manufacturing
data from the former were especially disappointing, whereas the eurozone’s
purchasing managers’ end-April indexes were mostly better than their mid-April
preliminary readings and generally confirmed a picture of expansion in the
region. I
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Weak ISM,
higher yields, hopes for Hellas * Big week: UK elections, US payrolls and a
rate cut in Norway * Sources see significant progress between Greece and its
creditors * Swedish krona weakest since February
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Euro Slips
as Big Week Starts Slowly
Daily
Shot – TF
The dollar
rally may be flagging after a series of lacklustre data prints, but inflation
in the US appears to be on the rise. Wage growth is up, commodities are
rebounding and breakeven rates are moving higher.
US Open – ZH
Futures
Levitate Following Worst Chinese Mfg PMI In One Year, Brent At 2015 Highs; Bund
Slide Continues
FX
Update – TF
The recent
squeeze on USD longs is now mostly limited to EURUSD as the greenback stabilised
a bit late last week, but we’ll likely need strong US data this week for the
USD rally to resume.
From the
Floor – TF
From the
Floor – TF
The
dollar's rather down-in-the-doldrums performance for much of April may at last
be about to become a thing of the past as a comeback on Friday could be the
launching pad for something much more decisive, if US data doesn't disappoint.
OTHER
Three
Events will Shape the Path Ahead – Marc
Chandler
US jobs
report, UK election, sell-off in German bunds
FX: A
super-bull case for the EUR – Nordea
Last year
was in a sense the mirror image of 2008 due to the EURUSD/oil price nexus which
helped reinforce ECB/Fed policy divergences. If oil prices continue to impact
inflation expectations positively, the Euro Area may face its own taper
tantrum. In this risk scenario, the EUR could appreciate substantially as could
various petro-currencies.
Trading
the Euro, Simple Jack Edition – Mark Dow
The
cyclical drivers still favor the USD. How offsides are investors in their
EURUSD positions and how much higher might an unwind take us?
At last,
is this the correction? – Cam
Hui
The
technical picture had been deteriorating. While the long-term uptrend in stock
prices has been intact, short-term trend, or momentum, had been choppy… The
apparent catalyst for a bearish impulse in stocks appears to be a growth scare.
Gavyn
Davies: Global growth report card – FT
Is the
world slowdown temporary?
APRIL MANUFACTURING PMI
China PMI
shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year – Reuters
FINNISH
USA:n työmarkkinaraportti on askel kohti syyskuun koronnostoa | USA:n palkkojen kasvu kiihtyi
alkuvuonna | Britannian
parlamenttivaalit tällä viikolla
Pauli Vahtera: Kolme ratkaisua taakanjakoon – IL
Jan Hurri: Suomen Eurooppa-politiikan U-käännös – TalSa
Seuraava hallitus muuttaa Suomen Eurooppa-politiikkaa
radikaalilla korjausliikkeellä, jos allitus tekee niin kuin keskustan Juha
Sipilä tahtoo ja valtiovarainministeriö neuvoo. Se olisi U-käännös, jolla Suomi
yrittäisi eroon liittovaltiokehityksestä.
"Suomen maistettava Etelä-Euroopan maiden
lääkettä" – Verkkouutiset
Handelsbanken toivoo hallitukselta ja
työmarkkinajärjestöiltä työmarkkinoiden toimintaa parantavan uudistuksen, joka
lisää työn tarjontaa.
Kreikka ja euromaiden Kreikka-politiikka – saksalainen tv-kanava
tiivistää asian loistavasti – Tyhmyri
Vain laaksoa, ei kukkulaa – Sakari
Heikkinen
Kalle Isokallio: Jättiläinen savijaloilla ja muita
väärinkäsityksiä – IL
HALLITUSPELI
Laaninen: Soini ja Sipilä kävivät keskustelun ”kipukohdista”
etukäteen – IS
Myös Rinne ihmettelee PS-vastauksia: ”Hallitus kaatuisi ensimetreillä”
– IS
PS:n kanssa vääntö – Sipilä: "Olemme varanneet tähän
koko päivän" – Verkkouutiset
Hallitusneuvottelujen jännityskohteet – Professorin
ajatuksia
Sipilä toivoo K:n ja PS:n yhteistyömahdollisuuksien
selviävän iltaan mennessä – YLE
Näkökulma: Siksi Soini pölähti tänään paikalle – US
Sipilä: Vas:n linjaukset poikkeavat "hurjan
paljon" talouden kuvasta – Verkkouutiset
Pääkirjoitus: Sipilä sai Soinilta tiukkoja vastauksia – IS