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Tuesday, May 5

4th May - PMI day: China contracting

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Juncker Lost Support of His Own Group on Migration but Won Applause by the Resteuinside

Secrets of the Brussels media machineThe Press Project

Europe Has A "Severe Case Of Low-Flation", Goldman SaysZH

Goldman Explains The "Self-Fulfilling Loop" Driving Bund YieldsZH

Wolfgang Münchau: All British political parties are eurosceptic nowFT
What's worth staying up for on election night?New Statesman

Greek NotesBill Craighead
Greece aims for deal with lenders, IMF hard on reforms: ministerReuters

By insisting on a rate hike the Fed has "imported" some of the global slowdownSober Look

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke Missive Fires At Taylor Rule, Misses Financial Stability * Fed’s Mester: ‘All Meetings Are on the Table’ For Rate Rises * Fed’s Williams: Policy Rules Don’t Work Well in Real World * IMF to Brighten View of China’s Yuan * Greece Back on the Brink, Five Years After First Bailout

Daily MacroWSJ
We’ve had more signs that Asia and Europe are going separate ways. Manufacturing data from the former were especially disappointing, whereas the eurozone’s purchasing managers’ end-April indexes were mostly better than their mid-April preliminary readings and generally confirmed a picture of expansion in the region. I

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Weak ISM, higher yields, hopes for Hellas * Big week: UK elections, US payrolls and a rate cut in Norway * Sources see significant progress between Greece and its creditors * Swedish krona weakest since February

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Euro Slips as Big Week Starts Slowly

Daily ShotTF
The dollar rally may be flagging after a series of lacklustre data prints, but inflation in the US appears to be on the rise. Wage growth is up, commodities are rebounding and breakeven rates are moving higher.

Futures Levitate Following Worst Chinese Mfg PMI In One Year, Brent At 2015 Highs; Bund Slide Continues

FX UpdateTF
The recent squeeze on USD longs is now mostly limited to EURUSD as the greenback stabilised a bit late last week, but we’ll likely need strong US data this week for the USD rally to resume.
From the Floor – TF

From the FloorTF
The dollar's rather down-in-the-doldrums performance for much of April may at last be about to become a thing of the past as a comeback on Friday could be the launching pad for something much more decisive, if US data doesn't disappoint.

Three Events will Shape the Path AheadMarc Chandler
US jobs report, UK election, sell-off in German bunds

FX: A super-bull case for the EURNordea
Last year was in a sense the mirror image of 2008 due to the EURUSD/oil price nexus which helped reinforce ECB/Fed policy divergences. If oil prices continue to impact inflation expectations positively, the Euro Area may face its own taper tantrum. In this risk scenario, the EUR could appreciate substantially as could various petro-currencies.

Trading the Euro, Simple Jack EditionMark Dow
The cyclical drivers still favor the USD. How offsides are investors in their EURUSD positions and how much higher might an unwind take us?

At last, is this the correction?Cam Hui
The technical picture had been deteriorating. While the long-term uptrend in stock prices has been intact, short-term trend, or momentum, had been choppy… The apparent catalyst for a bearish impulse in stocks appears to be a growth scare.

Gavyn Davies: Global growth report cardFT
Is the world slowdown temporary?


5 Takeaways From Asia’s Factory-Floor Surveys – WSJ
China PMI shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year – Reuters

USA:n työmarkkinaraportti on askel kohti syyskuun koronnostoa  | USA:n palkkojen kasvu kiihtyi alkuvuonna  | Britannian parlamenttivaalit tällä viikolla

Pauli Vahtera: Kolme ratkaisua taakanjakoonIL

Jan Hurri: Suomen Eurooppa-politiikan U-käännösTalSa
Seuraava hallitus muuttaa Suomen Eurooppa-politiikkaa radikaalilla korjausliikkeellä, jos allitus tekee niin kuin keskustan Juha Sipilä tahtoo ja valtiovarainministeriö neuvoo. Se olisi U-käännös, jolla Suomi yrittäisi eroon liittovaltiokehityksestä.

"Suomen maistettava Etelä-Euroopan maiden lääkettä"Verkkouutiset
Handelsbanken toivoo hallitukselta ja työmarkkinajärjestöiltä työmarkkinoiden toimintaa parantavan uudistuksen, joka lisää työn tarjontaa.

Kreikka ja euromaiden Kreikka-politiikka – saksalainen tv-kanava tiivistää asian loistavastiTyhmyri

Vain laaksoa, ei kukkulaaSakari Heikkinen

Kalle Isokallio: Jättiläinen savijaloilla ja muita väärinkäsityksiäIL

Laaninen: Soini ja Sipilä kävivät keskustelun ”kipukohdista” etukäteen – IS
Myös Rinne ihmettelee PS-vastauksia: ”Hallitus kaatuisi ensimetreillä” – IS
PS:n kanssa vääntö – Sipilä: "Olemme varanneet tähän koko päivän" – Verkkouutiset
Hallitusneuvottelujen jännityskohteet – Professorin ajatuksia
Sipilä toivoo K:n ja PS:n yhteistyömahdollisuuksien selviävän iltaan mennessä – YLE
Näkökulma: Siksi Soini pölähti tänään paikalle – US
Sipilä: Vas:n linjaukset poikkeavat "hurjan paljon" talouden kuvasta – Verkkouutiset
Pääkirjoitus: Sipilä sai Soinilta tiukkoja vastauksia – IS