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Saturday, May 9

8th May - Mediocre payrolls save rate hikes?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe "Baffled" By Bizarre Varoufakis "Blueprint"ZH

Vítor Constâncio: Reinforcing financial stability in the euro area – ECB
ECB’s Constancio: Program of Quantitative Easing is Working – WSJ
Mario Draghi Pens Pieces to Parliamentarians – WSJ

UK General Election – FT
UK: Conservatives win the election - stable political outlook – Danske Bank
U.K. Election Results — Live Analysis and Reaction – WSJ
Lars Seier Christensen: Cameron must hold the EU to account – TF
Cameron on course to stay 5 more years – Nordea
Cameron’s challenges: The road to EU reform and referendum – Open Europe
Giles Merritt: What Now for Britain and Europe? – Project Syndicate
Warning! Brexit Referendum Ahead – Alpha Now
Cameron Victorious as Conservatives Win Majority – BB
Cameron’s Biggest Challenge: Healing a Disunited KingdomBB

Employment Situation Summary – BLS
Payrolls Miss At 223K, March Revised Lower, Wage Growth Disappoints Again – ZH
Stocks & Bond Soar After Disappointing Jobs Data – ZH
Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 93,194,000 – ZH
Part-Time Jobs Soar By 437,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble – ZH

Old Workers Hit New All Time High As All April Jobs Go To The "55 And Older" – ZH
The Reason Why There Is No Wage Growth For 83% Of US Workers – ZH
223,000 Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
Employment Report Comments and Graphs – Bill McBride
US employers shake off winter effects – ABN AMRO

US Job Growth Recovers – Marc Chandler
US payrolls leave door open for Fed hike in September – Danske Bank
April Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
The April Jobs Report in 13 Charts – WSJ
Revisions, Energy Extraction, Manufacturing – Econbrowser

Just don't bet on a pay raise – The Economist
An incorrect dial? – The Economist
April Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Economists React to the April Jobs Report: ‘Reassuring’ – WSJ
Job Numbers Restore Confidence, But Don’t Give Fed Reason to Hurry – WSJ

U.S. Economy May Reach Job Market Nirvana in Next Six Months – WSJ
U.S. job growth recovers, keeps 2015 Fed rate rise in play – Reuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: Time for the Red Queen to Stop? * An Important Jobs Report for Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Increases * Yellen Meetings with Lawmakers Jumped in March, Following February Grillings * ECB’s Liikanen: Bond-Buying Program Has Stimulated Inflation Expectations

Daily MacroWSJ
An unexpectedly strong electoral victory for the Conservative party in the U.K. removed the risk of a hung parliament, leading investors to buy up U.K. and European stocks Friday. But the broader picture of the global economy wasn’t served well by other news: weaker-than-expected industrial production in Germany, an unexpected drop in Chinese exports and a downgrading in official growth forecasts for Australia.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily – Oil lifts inflation expectationsABN AMRO
Inflation expectations have played a role in the recent dramatic market moves…however we expect oil prices to soften in the near term dampening inflation expectations * Widening yield spread have supported EUR/USD for now

3 Numbers: European bond panic, Eurozone industrial data, US jobsTF
The European bond markets should be followed carefully after Thursday's crazy swings. The US April payrolls will tell us whether the first quarter's weakness was just a seasonal fluke, or a sign of moderating growth. The rest of today's data is relatively unimportant, but Germany's industrial production and trade balance at 06:00 GMT could provide us today's inflection point before the US job report.

Euro rates updateNordea

Cameron wins * Huge movements in core rates April payrolls to surprise on the upside? Will NFP prove to be the turning point for EUR/USD?

Morning Markets: Cameron's spectacular triumphTF
David Cameron's spectacular victory in yesterday's UK election may not be confirmed yet, but it looks like all those expectations of a hung parliament are likely to bite the dust. It's been a bloodbath for Labour and the Lib-Dems and respective leaders Ed Milliband and Nick Clegg can expect to walk the plank. And Scottish nationalism is flying.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Tories' Victory Stuns Polls, but Jobs Data to Determine Dollar's Fate

Daily Shot: Rising from the rubleTF
The latest indicators point to economic stabilisation in Russia. Yesterday we saw inflation starting to subside. Now service sector PMI is bouncing from the lows, and with the ruble and government bonds recovering somewhat, capital is flowing back into the country.

Futures Rise Following "Dramatic" UK Election Result, All Eyes On Payrolls

FX Update: Strong US jobs could reverse Sterling shockTF
The Conservatives stand to gain an absolute majority in the UK parliament after yesterday’s election, an outcome few predicted, though the shock to Sterling may prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we have an absolutely critical US employment report up later that the market is hoping will provide more clarity on the USD outlook.

From the Floor: Sterling's victory paradeTF
British prime minister David Cameron's crushing defeat of Labour and his erstwhile Liberal Democrat allies fueled strong early gains for GBPUSD. And as the City cheered, the FTSE opened sharply higher and the feel-good factor is expected to spread to other markets. Next hot thing on the agenda is nonfarm payrolls, but that's a definite two-way risk for the dollar.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Problems with finance: Too many to count, but not too many to fix

Korkojen nousupiikki taittuu vielä laskuksi | Konservatiivit nousemassa suurimmaksi puolueeksi Britanniassa | Kiinan ulkomaankauppaluvut pettymys

Pasi Sorjonen: Suomi: Tilaukset pelastivat perjantainNordea
Tänään julkaistut tiedot tavaraviennistä ja teollisuustuotannosta kertovat, että Suomen talouden alamäki jatkui suurella todennäköisyydellä Q1:llä. Lupauksia herättävää on kuitenkin se, että teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kasvoivat suurilla toimialoilla ja maaliskuu oli yksi parhaista tilauskuukausista yli kolmeen vuoteen.

Teollisuustuotanto maalisk. -4,5% vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset maalisk. +13% vuodentakaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Vuokrat nousivat 3,3 prosenttia vuodessa – Tilastokeskus