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EUROPE
Spring
Economic Forecast: Tailwinds support the recovery – EC
Europe’s
economies are benefitting from many supporting factors at once. Oil prices
remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to
depreciate, and economic policies in the EU are supportive.
Peter
Spiegel: Leaked legal opinion: EU too loose with budget rules? – FT
The next
time the Commission attempts to use the “flexibility clause” to give a country
a reprieve, it could run into some rough sailing.
Italy:
Political Reform Necessary Pre-Condition of Economic Reform – Marc
Chandler
Finland
Blog: Resuscitating a dead lawn is no longer enough – Nordea
Economic
policy is a bit like tending to your lawn. There is no point in reviving a dead
lawn – if you actually want a beautiful stadium, you'll need to make sure the
grass has fertile ground for growth.
UK:
Election Preview – Miliband next Prime Minister? – Nordea
The most
likely outcome of the election is a hung parliament probably resulting in a
Labour led minority government. Probably the government will get support from
the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems), most likely via a coalition backed up by the
Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP). Political uncertainty is an imminent risk for
continued volatility in the GBP.
GREECE
Peter
Spiegel: IMF takes hard line on aid as Greek surplus turns to deficit – FT
Greece is
so far off course that it faces losing vital IMF support unless European
lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt
IMF
Splinters From Rest Of Troika, Threatens To Cut Off Greek Funding – ZH
Gideon
Rachman: Grexit may be the best end for a bad marriage – FT
The euro
has failed to achieve the political goal it was meant to serve: promoting
European unity…if Greece can demonstrate that there is a
viable way out of the euro, it would provide a model for breaking up a
misconceived currency union or shrinking it to a more manageable size. That is
a precedent that the EU should welcome, not fear.
IMF
playing hardball on Greece – Reuters
UNITED STATES
Labour
market monitor: Jobs growth to have accelerated in April – Danske
Bank
US Trade
Deficit To Worst Since Financial Crisis; Will Push Q1 GDP Negative – ZH
Trade
Deficit increased in March to $51.4 Billion – Bill
McBride
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Index increased to 57.8% in April – Bill
McBride
ASIA
RBA cuts
interest rate to record low 2% - FT
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny
* Fed’s Williams ‘Very Optimistic’ On Economy’s Outlook * Fed’s Evans Advocates
for Early-2016 Rate Increase * Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Benchmark Rate to
Record Low * EU Lifts Eurozone Growth Forecast
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The outlook
for the eurozone is picking up – both inflation and growth are now expected to
be firmer for the year overall than they were just a couple of months ago
according to the latest European Commission forecasts – but Greece continues to bedevil the region. Not
only has the commission pared back its outlook for the benighted economy but
the latest reports suggest that the International Monetary Fund is growing
jittery that Greece’s debt burden is becoming
unsustainable again.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
The big
rates sell-off continues * Oil tailwinds to EURUSD, down again * Danish central
bank now buying DKK?
Morning
Markets – TF
Today's
Eurozone producer price data is expected to show further signs of improvement
in inflation in the region, with consensus forecasts estimating that
year-over-year PPI will continue to fall by 2.3% through the end of the first
quarter.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
RBA rate
cut * Poor UK construction PMI * Europe pulled in two directions * US reports
trade balance
Daily
Shot – TF
The impact
of political uncertainty in Greece is laid bare by the quickest of glances at
the stricken country's manufacturing PMI which is some way short of that magic
50 number and headed in the wrong direction. It's pretty woeful for South
Africa and Brazil too.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
IMF warns
on need for debt relief in Greece as negotiations struggle on * New YouGov
poll: Support for EU membership at its highest during this parliament * German
Vice-Chancellor proposes permanent investment court for EU-US free trade deal *
Italian MPs give final approval to new electoral law * Front National founder
Jean-Marie Le Pen suspended from party over controversial Holocaust remarks * Southern
European states defend use of deferred tax assets (DTAs) to bolster bank
capital * Leader of Spanish newcomer centrist party: Liberalism has never been
well explained in this country
US Open – ZH
Futures,
Treasurys Flat After Chinese Stock Bubble "Incident"; Bunds Stage
Feeble Rebound
FX
Update – TF
AUD jumped
as the RBA’s guidance was seen as neutral, even as they cut rates as expected.
The rally may not last in AUDUSD, though that pair will be highly data-reactive
for the rest of the week. The next US data point in the cross-hairs is today’s
April US ISM non-manufacturing survey.
From the
Floor – TF
Australia
may have cut rates, but it also appears to have drawn a line on the sand
regarding further easing. This comes as bond yields and interest rates spike
upwards, giving traders at least a glance at what economic normalisation might
look like.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Health
spending and the UK election: Government contenders
agree to compete on the margins of the problem
OTHER
Great
Graphic: Inflation Expectations Rising – Marc
Chandler
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Valuutan vahvistuminen Puolan keskuspankin päänvaivana |
Velkakirjojen myyntiaalto jatkuu |
Australian keskuspankki leikkasi korkoaan
Olli Herrala: Perussuomalaisten suosio syystä kova – KL
Sisäisen devalvaation vaikeus – sopimusten muuttamisen
vaikeudesta – Tyhmyri
Työajan pidentäminen on huono keino sisäisenä
devalvaationa – Osmo
Soininvaara
Henri Myllyniemi: "Neuvoja ei saa kuolleilta"
– US
Juncker: Anglosaksit yrittävät tuhota euron, jos Kreikka
lähtee – TalSa
Komission ennuste: Euroalueen talous kasvaa hitaasti –
Suomi jää häntäpäähän – YLE
Viron yritysveromalli kelpaa EU:lle, miksei Suomelle?
– Verkkouutiset
IMF euromaille: Kreikan velkoja on leikattava – Suomen
Uutiset
Demaripuolueen vähittäisestä katoamisesta – kun puolue
hylkää kannattajansa hylkäävät kannattajat puolueen – Tyhmyri
HALLITUSPELI
Politiikan toimittajat: Keskusta ja perussuomalaiset
hallituksen ytimessä – YLE
Hallitustunnustelut jatkuvat – Sipilä tapaa eduskuntaryhmien
edustajia – YLE
Nämä 8 asiaa ratkaisevat hallituksen muodostamisen: Soini on
avainasemassa – IS
Hallitustunnustelija Sipilä tapasi Suomen Pankin pääjohtajan
Erkki Liikasen – IS
Sipilä: Ei estettä jatkolle perussuomalaisten kanssa – IS
Suomenmaa - Soini vieraili keskustan ryhmässä – Suomenmaa
Pääkirjoitus: Politikointi ei saa mennä nyt isänmaan edun
edelle – Suomenmaa
Perussuomalaiset hyväksyi Sipilän kanssa saavutetun sovun – YLE