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Tuesday, May 5

5th May - UK elections, US payrolls, Greece ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Spring Economic Forecast: Tailwinds support the recovery EC
Europe’s economies are benefitting from many supporting factors at once. Oil prices remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate, and economic policies in the EU are supportive.

Peter Spiegel: Leaked legal opinion: EU too loose with budget rules?FT
The next time the Commission attempts to use the “flexibility clause” to give a country a reprieve, it could run into some rough sailing.

Are Europe’s GDP Forecasters Still Too Optimistic?WSJ

Italy: Political Reform Necessary Pre-Condition of Economic Reform Marc Chandler

Finland Blog: Resuscitating a dead lawn is no longer enoughNordea
Economic policy is a bit like tending to your lawn. There is no point in reviving a dead lawn – if you actually want a beautiful stadium, you'll need to make sure the grass has fertile ground for growth.

UK: Election Preview – Miliband next Prime Minister?Nordea
The most likely outcome of the election is a hung parliament probably resulting in a Labour led minority government. Probably the government will get support from the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems), most likely via a coalition backed up by the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP). Political uncertainty is an imminent risk for continued volatility in the GBP.

Peter Spiegel: IMF takes hard line on aid as Greek surplus turns to deficitFT
Greece is so far off course that it faces losing vital IMF support unless European lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt

IMF Splinters From Rest Of Troika, Threatens To Cut Off Greek FundingZH
Gideon Rachman: Grexit may be the best end for a bad marriageFT
The euro has failed to achieve the political goal it was meant to serve: promoting European unity…if Greece can demonstrate that there is a viable way out of the euro, it would provide a model for breaking up a misconceived currency union or shrinking it to a more manageable size. That is a precedent that the EU should welcome, not fear.

IMF playing hardball on GreeceReuters

Labour market monitor: Jobs growth to have accelerated in April – Danske Bank
US Trade Deficit To Worst Since Financial Crisis; Will Push Q1 GDP Negative – ZH
Trade Deficit increased in March to $51.4 Billion – Bill McBride
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.8% in April – Bill McBride

RBA cuts interest rate to record low 2% - FT
5 Things Analysts Are Saying About Australia’s Rate Cut – WSJ
China Stocks Tumble Most In 4 Months; Australia Cuts Rates To Record Low – ZH

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny * Fed’s Williams ‘Very Optimistic’ On Economy’s Outlook * Fed’s Evans Advocates for Early-2016 Rate Increase * Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Benchmark Rate to Record Low * EU Lifts Eurozone Growth Forecast

Daily MacroWSJ
The outlook for the eurozone is picking up – both inflation and growth are now expected to be firmer for the year overall than they were just a couple of months ago according to the latest European Commission forecasts – but Greece continues to bedevil the region. Not only has the commission pared back its outlook for the benighted economy but the latest reports suggest that the International Monetary Fund is growing jittery that Greece’s debt burden is becoming unsustainable again.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

The big rates sell-off continues * Oil tailwinds to EURUSD, down again * Danish central bank now buying DKK?

Morning MarketsTF
Today's Eurozone producer price data is expected to show further signs of improvement in inflation in the region, with consensus forecasts estimating that year-over-year PPI will continue to fall by 2.3% through the end of the first quarter.

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
RBA rate cut * Poor UK construction PMI * Europe pulled in two directions * US reports trade balance

Daily ShotTF
The impact of political uncertainty in Greece is laid bare by the quickest of glances at the stricken country's manufacturing PMI which is some way short of that magic 50 number and headed in the wrong direction. It's pretty woeful for South Africa and Brazil too.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
IMF warns on need for debt relief in Greece as negotiations struggle on * New YouGov poll: Support for EU membership at its highest during this parliament * German Vice-Chancellor proposes permanent investment court for EU-US free trade deal * Italian MPs give final approval to new electoral law * Front National founder Jean-Marie Le Pen suspended from party over controversial Holocaust remarks * Southern European states defend use of deferred tax assets (DTAs) to bolster bank capital * Leader of Spanish newcomer centrist party: Liberalism has never been well explained in this country

Futures, Treasurys Flat After Chinese Stock Bubble "Incident"; Bunds Stage Feeble Rebound

FX UpdateTF
AUD jumped as the RBA’s guidance was seen as neutral, even as they cut rates as expected. The rally may not last in AUDUSD, though that pair will be highly data-reactive for the rest of the week. The next US data point in the cross-hairs is today’s April US ISM non-manufacturing survey.

From the FloorTF
Australia may have cut rates, but it also appears to have drawn a line on the sand regarding further easing. This comes as bond yields and interest rates spike upwards, giving traders at least a glance at what economic normalisation might look like.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Health spending and the UK election: Government contenders agree to compete on the margins of the problem

Great Graphic: Inflation Expectations RisingMarc Chandler

Valuutan vahvistuminen Puolan keskuspankin päänvaivana | Velkakirjojen myyntiaalto jatkuu  | Australian keskuspankki leikkasi korkoaan

Olli Herrala: Perussuomalaisten suosio syystä kovaKL

Sisäisen devalvaation vaikeus – sopimusten muuttamisen vaikeudestaTyhmyri

Työajan pidentäminen on huono keino sisäisenä devalvaationaOsmo Soininvaara

Henri Myllyniemi: "Neuvoja ei saa kuolleilta"US

Juncker: Anglosaksit yrittävät tuhota euron, jos Kreikka lähteeTalSa

Komission ennuste: Euroalueen talous kasvaa hitaasti – Suomi jää häntäpäähänYLE

Viron yritysveromalli kelpaa EU:lle, miksei Suomelle?Verkkouutiset

IMF euromaille: Kreikan velkoja on leikattavaSuomen Uutiset

Demaripuolueen vähittäisestä katoamisesta – kun puolue hylkää kannattajansa hylkäävät kannattajat puolueenTyhmyri

Politiikan toimittajat: Keskusta ja perussuomalaiset hallituksen ytimessä – YLE
Hallitustunnustelut jatkuvat – Sipilä tapaa eduskuntaryhmien edustajia – YLE
Nämä 8 asiaa ratkaisevat hallituksen muodostamisen: Soini on avainasemassa – IS
Hallitustunnustelija Sipilä tapasi Suomen Pankin pääjohtajan Erkki Liikasen – IS
Sipilä: Ei estettä jatkolle perussuomalaisten kanssa – IS
Suomenmaa - Soini vieraili keskustan ryhmässä – Suomenmaa
Pääkirjoitus: Politikointi ei saa mennä nyt isänmaan edun edelle – Suomenmaa
Perussuomalaiset hyväksyi Sipilän kanssa saavutetun sovun – YLE