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Wednesday, May 6

6th May - Finland targets super-austerity

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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UK Watch – No party will win majorityABN AMRO
No party will win a majority in our view * Based on the current polling a workable coalition government is unlikely * There is a distinct possibility that there will be a second election * No workable majority or a Labour minority government would be negative for sterling…while a Conservatives’ majority with LibDems and DUP would be positive for UK assets

Volume of retail trade down by 0.8% in euro areaEurostat

Greece Attacks Creditors as ECB Considers Next Step – BB
ECB set to decide on increasing Greek bank lifeline – Reuters
Greece Wrestles with Itself – Marc Chandler
Is Greece right: divisions between IMF and EZ harming negotiations? – Open Europe

Preview: Employment Report for AprilBill McBride

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Two Views Inside Fed on U.S. Productivity Slowdown * Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm Come Under Scrutiny * Kocherlakota: First-Quarter Economic Softness Is ‘Matter for Concern’ * ECB’s Jazbec Says Too Early to Think About Tapering QE * BOC Eyes Changes to Market Operations, Emergency Lending

Daily MacroWSJ
In China, officials seem to be willing a frothy market lower; in the U.S., earnings haven’t done enough to justify valuations; and in Europe, there’s a mix of concern over Greece’s capacity to make some looming debt repayments– it made one to the IMF Wednesday but there’s a bigger one falling due next week — and a U.K. election Thursday whose outcome is uncertain.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Rebound in US labour market expected after upbeat signals… while US wage growth should pick up moderately, prompting the Fed to hike rates in September * UK elections: a parliamentary hung likely, still more downside for sterling

Euro rates updateNordea

Big jump in US trade deficit, weak US foreign trade – hurdle to USD * Greek apprehension, now also sell-off in the periphery

Morning MarketsTF
The United States is responsible for the more interesting data releases today with Europe only providing second-tier news. But this being the final trading day before voters take to the polls in the UK election, plenty of attention will be focused on the last stretch of the election race as Sterling increasingly feels the heat.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Will a Strong ADP Report Stabilize the Dollar?

Daily Shot TF
A seemingly global selloff in bond markets has yields soaring from Australia to Europe, with the latter development interesting in light of the European Central Bank's massive quantitative easing programme.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greece says disagreements between IMF and Eurozone are holding up negotiations * Cameron and Clegg at odds over government endorsement for ‘Out’ vote in EU referendum * Merkel willing to testify before Bundestag inquiry in spying scandal * EU proposes global investment court to replace ISDS within TTIP * Commission raises growth forecast for Eurozone on back of weaker euro and low oil prices * Russia throws spanner in EU plans to sink migrant smugglers’ boats * Sarkozy’s party set to change name * EU agrees to reform Emissions Trading System * Spain faces EU fine for statistics manipulation by one of its regions * EU probe into tax deals set to miss deadline

Violent Moves Continue In European Bond Market; Equity Futures Rebound With Oil At Fresh 2015 Highs

FX UpdateTF
The kiwi sold off anew overnight after weak Q1 employment and earnings growth numbers. Elsewhere, this Friday’s US employment report is shaping up to be one of the most important in recent memory.

From the FloorTF
There is a very antipodean flavour to From the Floor today with kiwi in particular taking a nasty hit overnight entering a danger zone that could open up significant downside below a trendline at 74.54.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Health spending and the UK election: Government contenders agree to compete on the margins of the problem

Steen Jakobsen’s Macro Digest Charts: Italian 2-10 yr yields call the alarmTF
Like the fixed income equivalent of a canary in a coalmine, the Italian short end is issuing a stark warning of Greek contagion. Elsewhere, gilts are selling off ahead of the UK election and from the US we have a dismal 2Q GDP forecast.

Are we there yet?FT
The long awaited, much predicted start of the great turning point in bond markets after which yields will rise, prices fall and teeth nash has arrived. Maybe.

Long-dated bond yields lead global market slideFT
Global bond markets were sharply weaker on Tuesday as rebounding oil prices boosted inflation expectations, suggesting that a long-running rally is now in danger.

Bond rout rattles all assetsReuters
A worldwide selloff in government bonds deepened on Wednesday, with the rise in yields to their highest level this year spreading unease across all asset classes and putting stock markets around the world under pressure.


Euro zone business activity starts second-quarter on solid footing – Reuters
Spanish Boom Meets French Stagnation as Reforms Drive Growth – BB
Will Services Save the Eurozone? – WSJ

Britannia uhkaa purra ruokkivaa kättä | USA:n kauppataseen alijäämä paisui selvästi | Tanskan keskuspankki aloitti kruunuostot

Jan Hurri: Nyt sen sanoo ministeriö: EKP ja euro ovat kriisin syypäitäTalSa
Eurokriisi ei ole Kreikan tai muiden kriisimaiden syytä, vaan syypäitä ovat euro, EKP ja komissio. Tällainen tulkinta ei ole yhtä yllättävä kuin sen esittäjä: ei radikaali Syriza-puolue Kreikasta vaan valtiovarainministeriön ylin virkamies Suomesta.

Syyttömyyden harhaPeter Nyberg
Kaikki olivat eurokriisistä vastuussa, kukin omalta osaltaan

Henri Myllyniemi: Siinähän pohditteUS

Lauri Kajanoja: Entä jos palkkamaltti ei riitä?Suomen Pankki

Pääkirjoitus: Yhteiskuntasopimus vasta aivan alkutekijöissään – HS
Pääkirjoitus: Yhteiskuntasopimus näyttää vesittyvän, jopa kaatuvan - Karjalainen
Pääkirjoitus: Isänmaa tarvitsee yhteistyöhön kykeneviä vastuunkantajia – IL
Pääkirjoitus: Sipilän ovelat EU-linjaukset – IL
Ovatko Sdp:n "lisäkysymykset" pelkkää teatteria? – HS

Rahaministeriö pelkää Suomen joutuvan EU:n tarkkailuluokalle – Verkkouutiset
VM:n tyly arvio: Edes kuuden miljardin leikkaukset eivät riitä – IS

Sipilä ilmoitti iltayhdeksältä: Yhteiskuntasopimus kariutui – Verkkouutiset
Sipilä sopimuksen kaatumisesta: Työkalupakki jäi vähäiseksi – YLE
Sipilä: Ei tässä syyllisiä tarvitse hakea – YLE
Sipilän yhteiskuntasopimus jäi syntymättä - ”Ei edellytyksiä” – IS
Sipilä: Säästötarve nyt 10 miljardia - ”Kivinen tie on edessä” – IS

Akavan mukaan ehdot yhteiskuntasopimukselle olivat liian kovat – Verkkouutiset
EK:n Häkämies: Neuvottelujen kariutuminen on valtava menetys – Verkkouutiset
Keskustan vaikuttajat apeina – Verkkouutiset

Näkökulma: Sipilän kaksoset – YLE
Sipilä sai selkänojan koville otteille - Sdp tuskin hallitukseen – IS