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Friday, May 15

15th May - US industry in trouble, USD weakens

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Finland poised to announce a 'bearish' new finance ministerThe Telegraph
Timo Soini - the Millwall-supporting Nigel Farage of Finland - could land one of the most important jobs in the eurozone

German Bundesbank chief rips into ECB over Greek loans – Reuters
Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo – ZH
The ECB’s recent monetary policy measures: Effectiveness and challenges – ECB
  Speech by Mario Draghi. (charts here)

Is EU treaty change really mission impossible? – Open Europe
Hammond seeks ‘fast’ reform settlement with the EU – FT
The mistake that could trigger Brexit – FT

Varoufakis refuses any bailout plan that would send Greece into ‘death spiral’ – The Guardian
Greece says may ask for emergency Eurogroup meeting – Reuters
Tsipras to Press EU Leaders on Greece Deadlock in RigaBB

Get Used To ItTim Duy
We probably need to get used to the occasional negative GDP growth numbers in the context of overall expansion for the US economy. The concept of "stall speed" will need to be revised accordingly.

Great Graphic: Expectations for Lift-Off Solidify for SeptemberMarc Chandler

US Industrial Production Weakens For 5th Month – ZH
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.3% in April – Bill McBride
U.S. industrial output falls for fifth straight month – Reuters
US Industrial Production Slides For Fifth Straight Month In April – James Picerno

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: It’s Tough on the Fed, ECB Borders * WSJ Survey: Most Economists See Fed Raising Rates in September * Powell: Exempt Small Banks from Dodd-Frank Compensation Rules * Draghi: Stimulus to Stay in Place for ‘As Long as Needed’ * Kuroda Stresses Power of Monetary Bazooka

Daily MacroWSJ
It’s perhaps too early to say that the rout in bonds seen earlier this month will not pose systemic problems but the return to calm does suggest that the best interpretation is that the price adjustment more reflected a rosier outlook for the eurozone economy than a dangerous sign of investor panic. This is not to say that lessons from the spike in yields can’t be drawn, the principal one being that the abundance of central-bank monetary liquidity has created distortions in these markets that leave them vulnerable to volatility. When the spigots are turned off, there will be consequences.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Disappointing US consumer * Higher US equities * Rising EUR/USD * France posts double the German growth in Q1 * German yields still heading higher amidst high volatility * EUR/NOK trying to break lower

Morning MarketsTF
Today's session is likely to be dominated by the afternoon release of the US' latest industrial data, which will give traders an idea of the country's Q2 growth (and the likelihood of a near-term, dollar-boosting rate hike).

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Bund Bounce Helps Dollar Stabilize

Daily ShotTF
The US Federal Reserve is the subject of much scrutiny lately, with investors looking to determine whether the central bank will raise interest rates this year. All in all, however, it currently appears that while the desire may be there, the data are proving more troublesome.

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Futures Make Further Record Gains On Bad Economic Data, Lack Of Volume, News And Bund Selling

FX UpdateTF
The US dollar has made a modest comeback attempt since selling off in the wake of Wednesday’s weak US Retail Sales report, but today’s batch of second-tier data will really need to impress to make an impress on the major USD charts.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Bye bye Blanchard: On chief economist's watch, the IMF boldly departed from orthodoxy (sometimes)

Nestehukka näännyttää energiavajeesta kärsivää taloutta | Heikot USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut painoivat dollaria | Euroalueen kasvu epätasaista

Pääkirjoitus: Muiden nuhtelija joutui nuhteluunIS
Euroopan komissio antoi Suomelle varoituksen talouskurin rikkomisesta. Velan määrä suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen kasvaa liikaa, ja alijäämät paukkuvat yli soveliaan rajan.

Kreikan hallitus on ollut vastuullinen – velkojamaat eivätTyhmyri

Henri Myllyniemi: Poliittisesti aktiivinen?US

Pekka Ervasti: Voi voitettuja!YLE
Kolme ässää taputtelee toisiaan selkään Smolnassa, mutta oppositio tekee synkeää surutyötä, kirjoittaa politiikan erikoistoimittaja Pekka Ervasti

Vaihtotase alijäämäinen maaliskuussa 2015Tilastokeskus