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Monday, August 10

10th Aug - A bottom is found

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Drop in long-term investment hinders eurozone recoveryFT

IMF to Portugal: You’re not off the hook yetPolitico

Germany: mixed bag of hard dataPictet
The most recently released hard German data delivered a mixed set of figures for June. Industrial production slowed in Q2. In contrast, factory orders and exports posted decent rates of expansion in Q2.

Yellen should re-read Friedman’s “The Role of Monetary Policy” and lay the Phillips curve to restLars Christensen

Goldman Confident Fed Will Wait Until December (At Least)ZH
Fed still the G4 front-runner in terms of a hawkish balance sheet policyNordea
While everyone is fretting about the first change to the price of money (the interest rate), the quantity of money may matter as well. The Fed’s current exit strategy implies 400bn yearly “unprinting” of money (starting in 2016) - but if the Fed opts to use Term Deposits to control money market rates USD-positive “unprinting” could happen sooner than that. In this piece we also take a look at the potential impact on other asset classes.

Deutsche Suggests 'Caution' As "Seven Signs" Flash RedZH

The Impact of Oil and the Dollar on 2Q FinancialsThe Fat Pitch
2Q financials have been poor, with negative growth in both sales and EPS. Sales growth has been affected by a 50% fall in oil prices and 15% fall in the value of trading partner currencies. Both of those are likely to make upcoming 3Q financials look bad as well.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Fall as Traders Look Warily to September

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Greece Bucks the Trend as European Markets Fall

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Record-Less Streak The Longest in Two Years

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Greece and its creditors are moving closer to a deal for an ESM programme…we identify five challenges that could throw the process off course in coming months * Meanwhile, the IMF warns Portugal on reforms ahead of the 4 October elections

Euro rates updateNordea

No major surprises in US jobs report – probably September Fed rate hike still in in play *
More data weakness from China * German yields with more downside potential * EUR/SEK continues to surge higher

Morning MarketsTF
Oil's swift descent towards $40/barrel shows little sign of abating with both benchmarks falling well short of key psychological barriers after the US rig count added yet more ballast to the supply side.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Japan's Current Account Balance, Investors' Bond Activity, and US Treasuries

Daily ShotTF
Prices of commodities as oil, copper and sugar are decreasing. But eggs are getting more expensive - the Avian Flu (which apparently started in Germany) has done serious damage to the population of chickens. US food establishments are forced to make major adjustments to their menu/pricing.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greece hopes to have draft bailout deal agreed by tomorrow * Hammond warns EU asylum policy is unsustainable * German Vice Chancellor: Merkel is ‘beatable’ in 2017 national election * New poll finds Brits more likely to see immigration as positive compared to Americans or Germans

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Migration muddle — Tusk and Duda silence treatment — Parliament slackers

Chinese Stocks Soar On Terrible Economic Data; US Futures Levitate; Brent Drops To 6 Month Lows


FX UpdateTF
The market shrugged off Friday’s US jobs report and the USD wilted after trying to rally as risk appetite likewise remains in a relatively sour mood. Evidence points to an extension of the summer doldrums, though a further deterioration in risk sentiment would likely shake this market out of the ranges.

From the FloorTF
With commodities down almost across the board, dovish central banks weighing on currencies and Chinese exports having declined by a whopping 8.3% for July, one could easily grow a little glum about the state of the investing world. Unless of course you are in Shanghai...

Euromaiden kasvuvauhdit painivat eri sarjoissa * USA:n heinäkuun työllisyysraportti kohtuullinen * Kiinan heinäkuun vientiluvut pettymys * Korot jatkoivat perjantaina laskusuunnassa

Ulkomaisten talousviisaiden Finland tuntuu kovin erilaiselta kuin SuomiHS
Ulkomaisten talousviisaiden Suomi-kuva tuntuu oudolta, sillä täällä eurokritiikki on jätetty änkyröille.

Ekonomistikysely: Ankeus jatkuu – edes yhteiskuntasopimus ei riitäYLE
Tästä vuodesta ehdittiin jo odottaa käännettä parempaan, mutta siitä uhkaakin tulla Suomelle neljäs peräkkäinen taantumavuosi. Vain parhaassa tapauksessa alamäki saattaa pysähtyä, arvioivat ekonomistit Yle Uutisten kyselyssä. Monen mielestä työvoimakustannusten leikkaaminen on nyt välttämätöntä, mutta sekään ei riitä.

Teollisuustuotanto kesäk, -1,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kesäk. +54,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus