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EUROPE
The
most recently released hard German data delivered a mixed set of figures for
June. Industrial production slowed in Q2. In contrast, factory orders and
exports posted decent rates of expansion in Q2.
UNITED STATES
Yellen should
re-read Friedman’s “The Role of Monetary Policy” and lay the Phillips curve to
rest
– Lars Christensen
Goldman Confident Fed
Will Wait Until December (At Least) – ZH
While
everyone is fretting about the first change to the price of money (the interest
rate), the quantity of money may matter as well. The Fed’s current exit
strategy implies 400bn yearly “unprinting” of money (starting in 2016) - but if
the Fed opts to use Term Deposits to control money market rates USD-positive
“unprinting” could happen sooner than that. In this piece we also take a look
at the potential impact on other asset classes.
OTHER
2Q
financials have been poor, with negative growth in both sales and EPS. Sales
growth has been affected by a 50% fall in oil prices and 15% fall in the value
of trading partner currencies. Both of those are likely to make upcoming 3Q
financials look bad as well.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Fall as
Traders Look Warily to September
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Greece Bucks the Trend as European
Markets Fall
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Record-Less Streak The Longest in
Two Years
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
Greece and its creditors are moving
closer to a deal for an ESM programme…we identify five challenges that could
throw the process off course in coming months * Meanwhile, the IMF warns
Portugal on reforms ahead of the 4 October elections
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
No major surprises in US
jobs report – probably September Fed rate hike still in in play *
More data weakness from
China * German yields with more downside potential * EUR/SEK continues to surge
higher
Morning Markets – TF
Oil's swift descent
towards $40/barrel shows little sign of abating with both benchmarks falling
well short of key psychological barriers after the US rig count added yet more
ballast to the supply side.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
Japan's Current Account
Balance, Investors' Bond Activity, and US Treasuries
Daily Shot – TF
Prices of commodities as
oil, copper and sugar are decreasing. But eggs are getting more expensive - the
Avian Flu (which apparently started in Germany) has done serious damage to the
population of chickens. US food establishments are forced to make major
adjustments to their menu/pricing.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Greece hopes to have
draft bailout deal agreed by tomorrow * Hammond warns EU asylum policy is
unsustainable * German Vice Chancellor: Merkel is ‘beatable’ in 2017 national
election * New poll finds Brits more likely to see immigration as positive
compared to Americans or Germans
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Migration muddle — Tusk
and Duda silence treatment — Parliament slackers
US Open – ZH
Chinese Stocks Soar On
Terrible Economic Data; US Futures Levitate; Brent Drops To 6 Month Lows
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
The
market shrugged off Friday’s US jobs report and the USD wilted after trying to
rally as risk appetite likewise remains in a relatively sour mood. Evidence
points to an extension of the summer doldrums, though a further deterioration
in risk sentiment would likely shake this market out of the ranges.
From the Floor – TF
With commodities down almost across the board, dovish central
banks weighing on currencies and Chinese exports having declined by a whopping
8.3% for July, one could easily grow a little glum about the state of the
investing world. Unless of course you are in Shanghai...
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euromaiden
kasvuvauhdit painivat eri sarjoissa * USA:n heinäkuun työllisyysraportti
kohtuullinen * Kiinan heinäkuun vientiluvut pettymys * Korot jatkoivat
perjantaina laskusuunnassa
Ulkomaisten talousviisaiden Suomi-kuva tuntuu oudolta,
sillä täällä eurokritiikki on jätetty änkyröille.
Tästä vuodesta ehdittiin jo odottaa käännettä parempaan,
mutta siitä uhkaakin tulla Suomelle neljäs peräkkäinen taantumavuosi. Vain
parhaassa tapauksessa alamäki saattaa pysähtyä, arvioivat ekonomistit Yle
Uutisten kyselyssä. Monen mielestä työvoimakustannusten leikkaaminen on nyt
välttämätöntä, mutta sekään ei riitä.
Teollisuustuotanto kesäk, -1,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus