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Monday, August 17

17th Aug - High EZ trade surplus

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Here's What Economists Think About Europe and the ECB Right NowBB
The economic outlook isn't great, even though economists think the ECB will come through on its QE pledges

Low inflation in the Eurozonevoxeu
Aggregate demand and oil prices played key roles in the drop, which has consistently ‘surprised’ market-based expectations. Towards the end of 2014 the risk of the ECB de-anchoring inflation expectations from the definition of price stability became material.

A Finnish cautionary taleFrances Coppola

Euro area: GDP expanded modestly in the second quarterPictet

Yanis Varoufakis: A New Approach to Eurozone Sovereign DebtProject Syndicate
The problem with debt restructuring in the eurozone is that it is essential and, at the same time, inconsistent with the implicit constitution underpinning the monetary union. When economics clashes with an institution's rules, policymakers must either find creative ways to amend the rules or watch their creation collapse.

Lower euro area inflation, but the ECB should not change its viewDanske Bank

State of the U.S. EconomyFloating Path
By @NickatFP

Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growthVox
The strength of the US dollar can impact the economic activity in emerging economies in various ways. This column argues that appreciation of the dollar mitigates the impact of real GDP growth in emerging markets. The main transmission channel is through an income effect. As the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall, depressing domestic demand via lower real income, and as a result real GDP in emerging markets decelerates. Emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued, reflecting the expected persistence of the strong dollar.

Why High Yield And Equity Markets Have DivergedThe Fat Pitch
The apparent divergence between credit-risk, as seen in rising high-yield bond spreads, and equities is due primarily to the 60% drop in oil prices over the past year. There's been no remarkable rise in spreads outside of energy; these are back to being in-line with the long term mean after falling to a 7-year low in 2014. If commodity prices continue to fall, this will be a meaningful metric to watch for equity risk.

FX Forecast Update: The end of CNY appreciationDanske Bank

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks End Turbulent Week in the Green

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Markets Calm Amid Yuan Stability, Greek Progress

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
What This Week’s Data Could Say About Liftoff

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Unconvincing growth in Europe * Japanese GDP down 1.6% (ann.) in Q2: Abenomics under test again * This week FOMC minutes * Greek 10-year yield falls below 10% * EUR/SEK falling for the second day in a row

Morning MarketsTF
Japan's economy contracted at an annualised pace of 1.6% in the second quarter as exports slowed and consumers cut back spending. Though anaylsts had expected a steeper decline of 1.9%, the news is a blow to prime minister Shinzo Abe's "three arrow" policy of defeating deflation with a blend of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
China Stabilizes, Stocks and Bonds Sigh in Relief

Daily Shot TF
US leveraged finance markets are taking a beating on the steep fall in mining and metals prices and meanwhile, the US oil rig count is rising despite a market close to saturation. Elsewhere, even though the market consensus favours a US rate hike in September, muted inflation expectations make the opposing argument.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Eurozone considers extending Greek loans to 60 years to get IMF on board with bailout *
Merkel: Asylum policy is the next great European project * EU does not publish details of £85m credit card bill for officials * Former UK minister says EU referendum likely in September 2016 following ‘choreographed’ row with France * New EU derivatives rules could lead to less fixed-rate mortgages * Billionaire calls on Swiss government to take tough line in free movement talks with EU * ECB extends time to review banks’ risk models

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel's Brazilian fling — Sticky situation — Cameron chillaxes

US Open ZH
Futures Flat As Oil Drops To Fresh 6 Year Low; EM Currencies Crumble Under Continuing FX War


FX UpdateTF
Even with the tremendous implications of China’s recent devaluation, many of the major pairs remain locked in tight trading ranges, wondering what to do next. It’s not readily apparent that we’ll find out this week.

From the FloorTF
We thought it was off but that's not the view of an overwhelming majority of economists who expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September.

Euroalueen toisen neljänneksen BKT-kasvu tuotti pettymyksen | Japanin talous supistui toisella neljänneksellä | Tänään saadaan euroalueen kauppatase

Paavo Väyrynen: Tarvitaan sekä rinnakkaisvaluutta että yhteiskuntasopimusUS

Timo Haapala: Tällä viikolla mitataan pääministeri J. Sipilän kanttiMTV
Tämä on viikko, jolloin tehdään suomalaista työmarkkinahistoriaa - tai sitten ei tehdä. Yhteiskuntasopimuksen takaraja on ensi perjantai. Juuri nyt ei hyvältä näytä, vaan sopimuksen kaatuminen on hyvin lähellä.

Jan Hurri: Kolme syytä, miksi Kreikka-kriisi jatkuuTalSa
Lisää velkaa, lisää vyönkiristystä ja rakenneuudistuksia. Siinä Kreikan kolmannenkin "pelastuspaketin" eväät – ja siinä kolme syytä, miksi kriisi jatkuu ja lasku kasvaa. Toimiviakin pelastuskeinoja olisi, mutta ne ovat poliittisesti vaikeampia kuin kriisin pitkittäminen troikan tapaan.

Politiikkaradio: Työajan pidentämisen järki tai järjettömyysYLE
Roger Wessman ja Mika Maliranta - Työajan pidentäminen on molempien mukaan Suomen nykytilanteessa välttämätöntä. Muita keinoja ei poliitikoilla Suomen kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi juurikaan ole. Ensi vuoden valtion budjettiyllätys eli työtulovähennyksen aikaistaminen on molempien ekonomistien mielestä hyvä veto.

"Verohelpotukset ovat tehokkain keino"Verkkouutiset
Riippumaton ekonomisti Roger Wessman pitää loogisena ensi vuoden budjettia, jos talouden nopea tasapainottaminen on ykköstavoite.

Henri Myllyniemi: Kun mitään ei koskaan korjataUS
kohtia, joita euroalueella tulisi korjata, jotta voisimme edes joskus päästä niin sanottuun normaaliin päivärytmiin kiinni.

Leikola ja LähdeYLE
Hallituskritiikki sataa nyt perussuomalaisten niskaan

Raha ja Talous: Ei sittenkään suurta kohtaanto-ongelmaaImage