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Monday, August 3

3rd Aug - China, commodities weak


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Economic Recovery, Euro-Style: This Could Be as Good as It Gets - BB
Europe’s economy has been hit so hard by five years of crisis that 1.6 percent growth makes Germany look like a powerhouse and Spain can boast of being a job-creating machine with 23 percent unemployment.

Mark Mazower: Berlin’s devotion to rules harms EUFT
A confident leadership sets the manual aside in moments of crisis

Yannos Papantoniou: The Government the Eurozone DeservesProject Syndicate
A move toward fiscal and political integration is the price that Europe must pay to maintain its unity and global relevance. The alternative is inconsistent – if not arbitrary – enforcement of the current rules, inducing divisiveness among member states, and eventual fragmentation.

We ♥ the EU — sort ofPolitico

Pasi Sorjonen: Finland: Not looking goodNordea
Let’s have a brief look at key data about the Finnish economy that you may have missed during your summer vacation. To summarize: It does not look good.

Scandinavian housing bubbles spark financial stability fearsFT

Spain’s Foreign GainWSJ
The renewed foreign appetite for Spanish paper has a downside too, Royal Bank of Scotland strategists note. Foreign investors can be flighty, and a loss of confidence remains a risk.

S&P cuts EU outlook to negativeFT

After five-week shut down, Greek stocks plummet – Reuters
Athens stock market tumbles on reopening – FT
Greek Stocks Plunge Most in Decades as Market Reopens to Crisis – BB

Dollar strength slices $100bn off US company revenues FT

U.S. consumer spending slows in June, inflation muted – Reuters
Personal Income +0.4% in June, Core PCE prices +1.3% YoY – Bill McBride
Real Personal Spending Growth Weakest Since Feb, Savings Rate Rises – ZH
Inflation Misses Fed’s 2% Target for 38th Straight Month – WSJ
ISM manufacturing retraces from 5-month high – TF
ISM Manufacturing Slumps To 3-Month Lows Led By Plunge In Employment – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 52.7 in July – Bill McBride
Adjusted New Orders Highest In 2015; Unadjusted Lowest Since 2013 – ZH
Construction Spending increased 0.1% in June – Bill McBride

Holiday recap: while you were busyNordea
If you are catching up with the market developments during or after your holiday, here is a summary of what happened and links to in-depth coverage.

Bullish and bearish over different time framesCam Hui

Trading against your bias: how and whyAdam Grimes

Weak China data hit commodity currenciesFT
Ruble Drops Most in Emerging Markets With Crude at Six-Month Low BB
Brent Oil Tumbles Below $50 on Iran Supply Plans, China Slowdown BB

Is This The Most Successful Trade Of The Last Decade?ZH
Being short volatility can be very profitable, according to Goldman. Year-to-date this short vol index is up 56%.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Doesn’t Demand Wage Growth Before Increasing Interest Rate * Bullard: “In Good Shape” to Raise Rates in September * Shelby Points to Another Fed Vacancy * BOE Appointee Vlieghe to Sell Stake in Brevan Howard * Greek Stocks Fall as Trading Resumes After Five-Week Exchange Closure

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Despite All the Agita, U.S Stocks Close Higher for July

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Greek Stocks Slump

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Heavy Week of Data to Drive Markets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Weak US wage data dent expectations of Fed rate hike in September * US reversal as rates fall, with the Bund unchanged * ESI momentarily decked the USD

Morning MarketsTF
Financial markets are getting off to a sluggish start to the week and most major currency currency pairs are treading water ahead of a flood of key economic data releases in the days ahead. Friday's shockingly weak ECI figures which showed the lowest wage growth in the US for decades put a dimmer on hopes of an imminent interest rate rise and in consequence, all tier-1 releases between now and the next Federal Reserve policy meeting will be tracked with heightened scrutiny.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
The US dollar is mostly confined to the pre-weekend trading ranges as participants prepare for this
week's big events which include the BOE meeting, minutes and new forecasts, and the US jobs report.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
There are two events this week that will shape the investment climate potentially for the rest of the year.  The first is the Bank of England meeting. The following day is the US employment report. 

Daily Shot – TF

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
UK and France seek EU and international help to deal with “global migration crisis” * New poll gives CDU/CSU absolute majority amid reports that Merkel will run again * Athens Stock Exchange plummets over 20% on opening after being shut for five weeks * Peter Lilley: EU renegotiation will not be accomplished in one go * City of London maintains financial services lead in Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Migration mire — New UN goals — Questions for Putin

Chinese Stocks Slide Again, Copper Tumbles To 6 Year Low; Greek Market Crashes After One Month Trading Halt


FX UpdateTF
This week sees an unprecedented Bank of England meeting and Inflation Report two-for on Thursday. And Friday’s reaction to US employment cost data shows how volatile this week may prove for the greenback as the market times the first Fed rate hike.

From the FloorTF
After Friday's carnage on the back of secondary US data, EURUSD is once again in and around the 1.1000 mark but with a heavy data set ahead and with doubts as to the Fed's intentions all pervasive, this is not likely to last.

Fed: Työllisyysraportin rima nousi yhä korkeammalle | Venäjän keskuspankki leikkasi odotusten mukaisesti ohjauskorkoa | Euroalueen vuotuinen inflaatio pysyi heinäkuussa 0,2 prosentissa