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Thursday, August 20

20th Aug - "Global bad feelings"

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EURUSD up, stocks down

European FI Strategy: Forget smooth sailingNordea
As the Fed is preparing to hike rates, China’s bubbles risk bursting, while (geo)political risks abound, there will not be a shortage of market drivers during the autumn. We expect bonds to continue to do relatively well in this environment, and do not see much upside for yields in the near term. Intra-Euro-area bond spreads are set to widen gradually, while Transatlantic spreads have room to rise as well.

Northern Lights: Scandi central banks up in arms; grim Finland Nordea
Across Scandinavia, central banks stand ready for further action: in Sweden, to counter possible SEK strength; in Norway, to cut rates (either in September or further on); and in Denmark, the national bank keeps reducing foreign exchange reserves. On the macro side, Finland keeps disappointing.

Kazakh Currency Crashes 25% After Peg AbandonedZH
Kazakhstan Tenge Slides 23% as Emerging-Market Rout Strains PegsBB

Banking Union Before Euro Adoption: Flak Jacket or Straitjacket?IMF

What can EZ offer to get the IMF on board GreeceIII? – Open Europe
What Next For Greece? – Marc Chandler
Germany backs Greek bailout as Tsipras mulls early polls – Reuters
Greek PM Tsipras to Propose Elections for Sept. 20, Official Says – BB
Greece PM Tsipras to call snap elections – FT
Greek PM to resign, seek snap election in September – Reuters
Factbox: Greek constitution on snap elections – Reuters
EU official: election can broaden bailout support – Reuters


FOMC Minutes Give No Clear Signal – Tim Duy
This is how the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates – WaPo
Moving towards a rate hike but timing is uncertain – Danske Bank
Minutes show concern over low inflation, strong dollar and China – FT
Conditions for rate rise approaching, says Fed – FT
The Fed: What is Different This Time? – Marc Chandler
Productivity paradox deepens Fed’s rate-rise dilemma – FT

Leading Indicators Plunges To Lowest Since March 2013 – ZH
Philly Fed Stagnant Amid Weaker Prices And New Orders – ZH
Existing Home Sales Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007 – ZH
Best Home Sales Since 2007, Momentum in Housing Market – BB

Emerging Markets Briefer: August 2015 – Danske Bank

EM FX Weekly – From bad to worseABN AMRO
Sell-off in commodities drags down EM FX…as well as risks to growth outlook and political uncertainty * China’s shift in FX regime has pressured others to follow * More EM FX weakness ahead mainly because of the Fed * The inclusion of the yuan in the SDR basket will be delayed until at least October 2016

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Energy Companies Sap U.S. Stocks Despite Dovish Fed

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Weaken as Fed Offers No Clear Signal

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fed Minutes Muddy the Waters for Markets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
The Minutes of July’s FOMC meeting indicated that conditions for a rate hike are approaching *
Rate rise depends on sustained economic growth and “some” improvement in employment * Strong US economic data after FOMC meeting suggest rate hike in September still on the cards

Euro rates updateNordea

Itchy Fed trigger finger; yields drop with oil prices; EUR gains *US Treasury yields to rise more as inflation firms * Volatile day for Scandies ahead of domestic data

Morning MarketsTF
Yesterday's FOMC minutes were greeted with USD sales as markets interpreted the Fed's cautios-to-the-point-of-opacity remarks as ultimately dovish. As of this morning, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fedwatch" puts the chances of a hike at 46%, down from a recent 50/50 split.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Firms against Most, but Euro and Yen hold Own

Daily ShotTF
Energy markets and oil in particular continue to bear the brunt of supply hurting commodities-led currencies in the process.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

800,000 asylum seekers expected in Germany this year; Austria considers legal action as Berlin backs mandatory distribution quotas * Kathimerini: Tsipras set to call snap elections, still undecided on date * British officers to help crack down on migrant smugglers in Calais * New poll puts anti-immigration Sweden Democrats as largest party * EU condemns Russia after Estonian intelligence officer sentenced to 15 years in prison

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Turkey crisis deepens — Merkel wins Bundestag vote — IMF holds out on Greece — French kids draw blank on PM

Dazed And Confused: Futures Tumble Below 200 DMA, Oil Near $40, Soaring Treasurys Signal Deflationary Deluge


FX UpdateTF
EURUSD is up and USDCHF is down in the wake of the dovish read of the FOMC minutes, or is it defensive risk appetite posture that is a bigger factor here? Elsewhere, like in AUDUSD and USDCAD, for example, the USD hardly noticed the minutes.

From the FloorTF
An unexpected rise in crude stockpiles combined with weaker refinery demand saw WTI sink to its lowest in more than six years.

Jenkkitalouden inflaatiopaineet kasautuvat * Ruotsin työttömyysaste on todennäköisesti kasvanut heinäkuussa * Korot laskivat ja dollari heikkeni FOMC:in pöytäkirjojen myötä * Manner-Norjan BKT-kasvu on todennäköisesti hidastunut selvästi toisella neljänneksellä

Joukko Suomen talousviisaita alkaa nyt pohtimaan euron tulevaisuuttaTE

Ruotsalaisprofessori: Suomen eurojäsenyys oli virhe joka kostautuu nytT&T