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| EURUSD up, stocks down |
EUROPE
European FI
Strategy: Forget smooth sailing – Nordea
As
the Fed is preparing to hike rates, China’s bubbles risk bursting, while
(geo)political risks abound, there will not be a shortage of market drivers
during the autumn. We expect bonds to continue to do relatively well in this
environment, and do not see much upside for yields in the near term.
Intra-Euro-area bond spreads are set to widen gradually, while Transatlantic
spreads have room to rise as well.
Northern Lights:
Scandi central banks up in arms; grim Finland – Nordea
Across
Scandinavia, central banks stand ready for further action: in Sweden, to
counter possible SEK strength; in Norway, to cut rates (either in September or
further on); and in Denmark, the national bank keeps reducing foreign exchange
reserves. On the macro side, Finland keeps disappointing.
Kazakh Currency
Crashes 25% After Peg Abandoned – ZH
Kazakhstan Tenge
Slides 23% as Emerging-Market Rout Strains Pegs – BB
GREECE
What
can EZ offer to get the IMF on board GreeceIII? – Open Europe
What
Next For Greece? – Marc Chandler
Germany
backs Greek bailout as Tsipras mulls early polls – Reuters
Greek
PM Tsipras to Propose Elections for Sept. 20, Official Says – BB
Greece
PM Tsipras to call snap elections – FT
Greek
PM to resign, seek snap election in September – Reuters
Factbox:
Greek constitution on snap elections – Reuters
EU
official: election can broaden bailout support – Reuters
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
FOMC Minutes Give No Clear Signal – Tim
Duy
This is how the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates – WaPo
Moving towards a rate hike but timing is uncertain – Danske
Bank
Minutes show concern over low inflation, strong dollar and China – FT
Conditions for rate rise approaching, says Fed – FT
The Fed: What is Different This Time? – Marc
Chandler
Productivity paradox deepens Fed’s rate-rise dilemma – FT
DATA
Leading Indicators Plunges To Lowest Since March 2013 – ZH
Philly Fed Stagnant Amid Weaker Prices And New Orders – ZH
Existing Home Sales Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007 – ZH
Best Home Sales Since 2007, Momentum in Housing Market – BB
OTHER
Emerging Markets
Briefer: August 2015 – Danske
Bank
EM FX Weekly – From bad
to worse – ABN AMRO
Sell-off in commodities drags down EM FX…as well as risks to growth
outlook and political uncertainty * China’s shift in FX regime has pressured
others to follow * More EM FX weakness ahead mainly because of the Fed * The
inclusion of the yuan in the SDR basket will be delayed until at least October
2016
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Energy Companies Sap
U.S. Stocks Despite Dovish Fed
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Weaken as Fed
Offers No Clear Signal
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Fed Minutes Muddy the
Waters for Markets
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
The Minutes of July’s
FOMC meeting indicated that conditions for a rate hike are approaching *
Rate rise depends on
sustained economic growth and “some” improvement in employment * Strong US
economic data after FOMC meeting suggest rate hike in September still on the
cards
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Itchy Fed trigger finger; yields
drop with oil prices; EUR gains *US Treasury yields to rise more as inflation
firms * Volatile day for Scandies ahead of domestic data
Morning Markets – TF
Yesterday's FOMC minutes
were greeted with USD sales as markets interpreted the Fed's
cautios-to-the-point-of-opacity remarks as ultimately dovish. As of this
morning, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fedwatch" puts the
chances of a hike at 46%, down from a recent 50/50 split.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar Firms against
Most, but Euro and Yen hold Own
Daily Shot – TF
Energy markets and oil
in particular continue to bear the brunt of supply hurting commodities-led
currencies in the process.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
800,000 asylum seekers
expected in Germany this year; Austria considers legal action as Berlin backs
mandatory distribution quotas * Kathimerini: Tsipras set to call snap
elections, still undecided on date * British officers to help crack down on
migrant smugglers in Calais * New poll puts anti-immigration Sweden Democrats
as largest party * EU condemns Russia after Estonian intelligence officer
sentenced to 15 years in prison
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Turkey crisis deepens —
Merkel wins Bundestag vote — IMF holds out on Greece — French kids draw blank
on PM
US Open – ZH
Dazed And Confused:
Futures Tumble Below 200 DMA, Oil Near $40, Soaring Treasurys Signal
Deflationary Deluge
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
EURUSD is up and USDCHF
is down in the wake of the dovish read of the FOMC minutes, or is it defensive
risk appetite posture that is a bigger factor here? Elsewhere, like in AUDUSD
and USDCAD, for example, the USD hardly noticed the minutes.
From the Floor – TF
An unexpected rise in crude
stockpiles combined with weaker refinery demand saw WTI sink to its lowest in
more than six years.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Jenkkitalouden inflaatiopaineet kasautuvat * Ruotsin työttömyysaste
on todennäköisesti kasvanut heinäkuussa * Korot laskivat ja dollari heikkeni
FOMC:in pöytäkirjojen myötä * Manner-Norjan BKT-kasvu on todennäköisesti
hidastunut selvästi toisella neljänneksellä
Joukko
Suomen talousviisaita alkaa nyt pohtimaan euron tulevaisuutta –
TE
Ruotsalaisprofessori:
Suomen eurojäsenyys oli virhe joka kostautuu nyt –
T&T