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EUROPE
Can only Eurosceptics oppose austerity? – Europp
How divisions over
integration have replaced the left/right divide in the European Parliament
Instability & Stagnation in a Monetary Union – INET
The intra-EMU
divergences are a feature of the system rather than just a bug.
European Companies Have Cash But Won't Spend It – BB
Estimates for capex are
slumping, even as the ECB expanded QE * Market reacts more positively to
buybacks, high cash levels
Ten Billion Risks in Greece's Summer of
Discontent – View
/ BB
ITALY
Renzi plans to reboot
Italy as others have failed – BB
Italy's Bank Plan: Atlas
Fudged – BB
Project Atlas plan leaked
– FT
Italy's New Bank Rescue
Fund Meets With Investor Skepticism – BB
BREXIT
Martin Schulz: Brexit could trigger ‘implosion’
of EU – Politico
‘The EU has been on a
sliding slope,’ Schulz said.
Gideon Rachman: Boris Johnson, David Cameron and
the day after Brexit – FT
It’s a nightmare on
Downing Street ... and there’s a long silence from Angela Merkel in Berlin
This Market Gauge Is Showing Rising ‘Brexit’
Fears – WSJ
Brexit and the EU-UK deal: consequences for the
EU – Bruegel
The debate on Brexit
focuses on the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom, but
ignores the impact of the new EU-UK agreement on the EU. Regardless of the
referendum result, the agreement will have serious consequences and will
negatively affect prospects for European integration.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Germany's war of words against the ECB – Carsten
Brzeski
German criticism on the
ECB’s monetary policy throughout the crisis is not new. In recent days,
however, it has entered a new stage.
Bundesbank’s Weidmann rebukes Draghi critics in
Berlin – FT
Interview: Bundesbank chief Weidmann defends ECB – FT
ECB seeks to mollify Germany after dispute over
'helicopter money' – Reuters
Will the ECB be forced to re-enter the currency
war? – Danske
Bank
Schauble Throws Up Over Draghi: "The ECB Is
Causing Extraordinary Problems" – ZH
UNITED STATES
New York Fed Launches Its Own GDP Tracker – WSJ
Bank's new tracker
follows a similar product from the Atlanta Fed
SocGen: Why The Fed Wants To Avoid A Drop In
Equity Markets – ZH
OTHER
Martin Enlund: USD: The
Oil Connection – Nordea
Why is the dollar
negatively correlated with oil prices, and should we expect the correlation to
be stronger or weaker than in the past? We take a look at the robustness of the
EUR/USD-oil relationship, as well as ponder if not some of the historical macro
drivers may have changed.
Did the G20 agree a currency accord and does it matter? – FT
More Thoughts about the Yen – Marc Chandler
IMF /
WEO MEETINGS
World Economic Outlook – IMF
Global Economy Faltering
from Too Slow Growth for Too Long * Global growth forecast at 3.2 percent this
year, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2017 * Financial risks prominent, together
with geopolitical shocks, political discord * Need for three-pronged approach
spanning structural, fiscal, monetary measures
Video: IMF 2016 World Economic Outlook – IMF
Maurice Obstfeld: Global Growth: Too Slow for
Too Long – IMF
Ashoka Mody: Saving the IMF – Project
Syndicate
Since the start of the
Great Recession in mid-2007, the IMF’s actions have mostly served the interests
of its major shareholders. When finance ministers and central bank governors
meet in Washington, DC, next week for the Fund’s annual meeting, will they have
the energy to push for greater independence and credibility?
IMF cuts global growth outlook again, warns of
political risks – Reuters
IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as Growth Outlook
Cut Again – BB
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Fed hawks, French syndication, GBP
protection * Today UK and Swedish inflation as well as hawkish Fed speakers * New
ultra-long benchmark bonds in France * Protection against GBP losses increase
to new highs since 2003
Morning Markets – TF
Optimism was back in fashion today
across much of Asia. A slight easing in the rise of the yen against the US
dollar helped drive a bounce in Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225. Shares gained
ground in Mumbai Hong Kong and Sydney as well. However China's Shanghai
Composite headed lower on profit taking that followed its rally on Monday. In
forex markets an upbeat National Australia Bank business conditions survey gave
the Australian dollar a lift.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Higher Inflation Lifts Sterling, Yen
Stabilizes
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
Glittering
No Japanese Surrender
Daily Shot – TF
A recovery in commodity
prices from steel to pork is making itself felt in China, where the producer
price index rose month-on-month for the first time in years, marking the end of
wholesale price deflation in the world's second biggest commodity.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Greek bailout review
talks halted as differences between IMF and EU Commission remain * Commission to
put forward visa free travel proposals for Ukraine, despite Dutch rejection of
EU-Ukraine treaty * Bank of France Governor speaks of urgent need for Eurozone
finance minister * Merkel’s centre-left coalition partners on less than 20% for
first time * Talk of re-run elections intensifies in Spain as deadline to form
new government draws closer * Italian MPs set to give final approval to major
constitutional reform
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Brussels transport sagas
— Parliament power plays — Greek grief
US Open – ZH
Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil
Hits 2016 Highs
Frontrunning – ZH
The US dollar has
weakened further but within ranges as we search around for a catalyst that can
knock it lower still. Today’s calendar is very quiet as the focus for the
moment is on general risk appetite with the US earnings season in full swing
and the oil-linked currencies as oil trades at new local highs.
The US earnings kicked
off with a mixed-to-honestly-quite-poor showing from aluminium giant Alcoa.
Soft industrial metals prices and the global demand slowdown saw the firm beat
on EPS but come up decidedly short everywhere else.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Poliittinen
turbulenssi väistämätön Suomessakin Kreikan takia * Fedin avomarkkinakomitean
jäsenet pitävät puheita * Ruotsin hintapaineet kasautuvat * Kiinan
ulkomaankauppaluvut kohenevat – kokonaiskuva viennin vaikeuksista pysyy
ennallaan