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Tuesday, April 12

12th Apr - IMF's dire outlook & euro crisis

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Can only Eurosceptics oppose austerity?Europp
How divisions over integration have replaced the left/right divide in the European Parliament

Instability & Stagnation in a Monetary UnionINET
The intra-EMU divergences are a feature of the system rather than just a bug.

European Companies Have Cash But Won't Spend ItBB
Estimates for capex are slumping, even as the ECB expanded QE * Market reacts more positively to buybacks, high cash levels

Ten Billion Risks in Greece's Summer of Discontent View / BB

Renzi plans to reboot Italy as others have failed – BB
Italy's Bank Plan: Atlas Fudged – BB
Project Atlas plan leaked – FT
Italy's New Bank Rescue Fund Meets With Investor Skepticism – BB

Martin Schulz: Brexit could trigger ‘implosion’ of EUPolitico
‘The EU has been on a sliding slope,’ Schulz said.

Gideon Rachman: Boris Johnson, David Cameron and the day after Brexit FT
It’s a nightmare on Downing Street ... and there’s a long silence from Angela Merkel in Berlin

This Market Gauge Is Showing Rising ‘Brexit’ FearsWSJ

Brexit and the EU-UK deal: consequences for the EUBruegel
The debate on Brexit focuses on the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom, but ignores the impact of the new EU-UK agreement on the EU. Regardless of the referendum result, the agreement will have serious consequences and will negatively affect prospects for European integration.

Germany's war of words against the ECB Carsten Brzeski
German criticism on the ECB’s monetary policy throughout the crisis is not new. In recent days, however, it has entered a new stage.

Bundesbank’s Weidmann rebukes Draghi critics in Berlin FT
Interview: Bundesbank chief Weidmann defends ECBFT

ECB seeks to mollify Germany after dispute over 'helicopter money'Reuters

Will the ECB be forced to re-enter the currency war?Danske Bank

Schauble Throws Up Over Draghi: "The ECB Is Causing Extraordinary Problems" ZH

New York Fed Launches Its Own GDP TrackerWSJ
Bank's new tracker follows a similar product from the Atlanta Fed

SocGen: Why The Fed Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity MarketsZH

Martin Enlund: USD: The Oil ConnectionNordea
Why is the dollar negatively correlated with oil prices, and should we expect the correlation to be stronger or weaker than in the past? We take a look at the robustness of the EUR/USD-oil relationship, as well as ponder if not some of the historical macro drivers may have changed.

Did the G20 agree a currency accord and does it matter?FT

More Thoughts about the YenMarc Chandler

World Economic Outlook IMF
Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long * Global growth forecast at 3.2 percent this year, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2017 * Financial risks prominent, together with geopolitical shocks, political discord * Need for three-pronged approach spanning structural, fiscal, monetary measures

Video: IMF 2016 World Economic Outlook IMF

Maurice Obstfeld: Global Growth: Too Slow for Too Long IMF

Ashoka Mody: Saving the IMFProject Syndicate
Since the start of the Great Recession in mid-2007, the IMF’s actions have mostly served the interests of its major shareholders. When finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington, DC, next week for the Fund’s annual meeting, will they have the energy to push for greater independence and credibility?

IMF cuts global growth outlook again, warns of political risksReuters
IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as Growth Outlook Cut AgainBB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed hawks, French syndication, GBP protection * Today UK and Swedish inflation as well as hawkish Fed speakers * New ultra-long benchmark bonds in France * Protection against GBP losses increase to new highs since 2003

Morning MarketsTF
Optimism was back in fashion today across much of Asia. A slight easing in the rise of the yen against the US dollar helped drive a bounce in Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225. Shares gained ground in Mumbai Hong Kong and Sydney as well. However China's Shanghai Composite headed lower on profit taking that followed its rally on Monday. In forex markets an upbeat National Australia Bank business conditions survey gave the Australian dollar a lift.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Higher Inflation Lifts Sterling, Yen Stabilizes

Daily Market CommentMacro Man

Daily Market CommentPolemic’s Pains
No Japanese Surrender

Daily ShotTF
A recovery in commodity prices from steel to pork is making itself felt in China, where the producer price index rose month-on-month for the first time in years, marking the end of wholesale price deflation in the world's second biggest commodity.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greek bailout review talks halted as differences between IMF and EU Commission remain * Commission to put forward visa free travel proposals for Ukraine, despite Dutch rejection of EU-Ukraine treaty * Bank of France Governor speaks of urgent need for Eurozone finance minister * Merkel’s centre-left coalition partners on less than 20% for first time * Talk of re-run elections intensifies in Spain as deadline to form new government draws closer * Italian MPs set to give final approval to major constitutional reform

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brussels transport sagas — Parliament power plays — Greek grief

Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil Hits 2016 Highs


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar has weakened further but within ranges as we search around for a catalyst that can knock it lower still. Today’s calendar is very quiet as the focus for the moment is on general risk appetite with the US earnings season in full swing and the oil-linked currencies as oil trades at new local highs.

From the FloorTF
The US earnings kicked off with a mixed-to-honestly-quite-poor showing from aluminium giant Alcoa. Soft industrial metals prices and the global demand slowdown saw the firm beat on EPS but come up decidedly short everywhere else.

Poliittinen turbulenssi väistämätön Suomessakin Kreikan takia * Fedin avomarkkinakomitean jäsenet pitävät puheita * Ruotsin hintapaineet kasautuvat * Kiinan ulkomaankauppaluvut kohenevat – kokonaiskuva viennin vaikeuksista pysyy ennallaan