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With Impeccable Timing, ‘Economic Miracle’ in Spain Unravels – Wolf Street
Sovereign-Debt Debate Divides EU as Schaeuble Pushes for Limits – BB
Schaeuble Sees No Greece Debt Relief as Long as Debt Sustainable – BB
Obama Says Brexit May Mean 10-Year Wait for U.K. Trade Deal – BB
EU Seeks Tax Deal to Counter Populists Bolstered by Panama Leaks – BB
Ifo German Business Climate Edges Downwards – CESifo
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Vítor Constâncio: The new ECB Macroprudential Bulletin – vox
Since the Crisis, macroprudential policy has become a necessary complement to monetary policy. The ECB is striving to be a major contributor to the growing body of thought about the role and instruments of this new policy area. In this column, Vice-President Vítor Constâncio introduces the new bi-annual ECB Macroprudential Bulletin aimed at widening awareness about the Bank's macroprudential policy mandate, enhancing transparency, and informing about current ECB discussions and approaches in the field.
CSPP: ‘Public undertakings’ could derail success of the programme – ABN AMRO
Much depends on the interpretation of a ‘public undertaking’, which states that not government ownership but dominant influence is the key criterion. The Issue share limit for ‘Public undertakings’ is limited to 33% * Together with the 70% issue share limit for other corporates, this could limit the CSPP programme size to just EUR 373bn
The ECB’s Corporate QE Revives an Old Hazard – ECB
Criticisms applied to the ECB's sovereign QE are conspicuously absent when it comes to corporate bond buying
Press release Financial integration in Europe – ECB
Financial re-integration trend moderates, but ambitious capital markets union will boost benefits of integration
Financial integration in Europe, 2016 – ECB
Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking – ECB
Bond Traders Rule Out April Rate Rise as Fed Forecasters on Hold – BB
Fed caught in 'negative feedback loop,' Goldman's Beinner says * Treasuries tumble on improved outlook for jobs, inflation
FOMC preview – Danske Bank
June hike unlikely as Yellen emphasises downside risks
Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed's Inflation Fail – View / BB
The central bank may be losing its grip on inflation expectations.
FOMC preview – Marc Chandler
Global Tensions Lessened, but Bound to Increase Ahead of June FOMC Meeting
FX: USD strikes back – Nordea
The short term odds favour USD; if rates rise sharply - USD strength temporary, if rates fall - we could see another lasting bull run. Positioning not universal - CHF and JPY best shorts, while GBP good to buy...
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
FOMC and BoJ meetings this week, GDP flash estimates * This week: A cautious FOMC, more action from BoJ and flash GDPs * Worst weekly selloff in Bunds and Treasuries * GBP continues to rise
Morning Markets – TF
Equity markets across Asia started the week on a sour note as an embattled yen continues to weaken against the dollar and traders awaited the week's standout event - Thursday's Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.
Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Pares Pre-Weekend Gains Against Euro and Yen
Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Monday morning bullet points
Daily Shot – TF
The risks of the UK leaving the European Union via a June referendum are weighing on British investment and job creation, and UK sovereign credit default swap spreads have widened. Short GBP positions are building up. Elsewhere, US manufacturing is in its worst shape since 2009, according to Markit Economics, and the futures-implied probability of a US rate hike is seen at 20%, though some believe it should be higher.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Obama warns UK would be “in the back of the queue” for trade talks in the event of Brexit * Home Secretary admits EU makes it harder to control immigration as Justice Secretary says EU membership poses threat to UK’s public services * Gove: If we vote to stay in the EU, we accept losing our veto forever * Obama says EU-US trade deal may not be concluded “for quite some time” unless it is wrapped up before he leaves office * Far-right candidate wins first round of Austrian presidential election * EU finance ministers split on tax transparency plans * UK to discuss deploying naval patrols in Libyan waters with US and key EU partners * Greece examines contingent legislation in effort to complete current bailout review
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Far-right rises in Austria — Obama in Europe — Tusk risk
US Open – ZH
Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
A huge rally in USDJPY on Friday may have been more inspired by record JPY longs more than real anticipation of new BoJ easing this week. Elsewhere a rally in sterling also looks linked to positioning ahead of this week’s two key market events Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Thursday’s BoJ announcement.
From the Floor – TF
The Bank of Japan may finally be waking up to the fact that without fiscal support it really can't do much on its own as yen strength once again begins to gather before a pivotal meeting on Thursday.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tällä viikolla luvassa Fedin kokous ja USA:n BKT-luvut: Fed nostaa vasta jouluksi * Euroalueen talouskasvu kiihtyy hivenen * Japanin keskuspankki todennäköisesti kasvattaa osto-ohjelmaansa torstaina
Jan Hurri: EKP lapioi rahaa yrityksille, viis markkinataloudesta – TalSa
Euroalueen keskuspankit alkavat pian lapioida uunituoretta rahaa eurovaltioiden ja pankkien lisäksi suoraan yrityksille. Mitä EKP rahakokeillaan saakaan aikaan, tuskin se edistää markkinataloutta. EU-sopimusten mukaan pitäisi.