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Monday, April 25

25th Apr - Post-Obama, before Fed & BoJ

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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With Impeccable Timing, ‘Economic Miracle’ in Spain UnravelsWolf Street

Sovereign-Debt Debate Divides EU as Schaeuble Pushes for LimitsBB

Schaeuble Sees No Greece Debt Relief as Long as Debt SustainableBB

Obama Says Brexit May Mean 10-Year Wait for U.K. Trade DealBB

EU Seeks Tax Deal to Counter Populists Bolstered by Panama LeaksBB

Ifo German Business Climate Edges DownwardsCESifo
Vítor Constâncio: The new ECB Macroprudential Bulletin vox
Since the Crisis, macroprudential policy has become a necessary complement to monetary policy. The ECB is striving to be a major contributor to the growing body of thought about the role and instruments of this new policy area. In this column, Vice-President Vítor Constâncio introduces the new bi-annual ECB Macroprudential Bulletin aimed at widening awareness about the Bank's macroprudential policy mandate, enhancing transparency, and informing about current ECB discussions and approaches in the field.

CSPP: ‘Public undertakings’ could derail success of the programmeABN AMRO
Much depends on the interpretation of a ‘public undertaking’, which states that not government ownership but dominant influence is the key criterion. The Issue share limit for ‘Public undertakings’ is limited to 33% * Together with the 70% issue share limit for other corporates, this could limit the CSPP programme size to just EUR 373bn

The ECB’s Corporate QE Revives an Old HazardECB
Criticisms applied to the ECB's sovereign QE are conspicuously absent when it comes to corporate bond buying

Press release Financial integration in EuropeECB
Financial re-integration trend moderates, but ambitious capital markets union will boost benefits of integration

Financial integration in Europe, 2016ECB

Sovereign risk and bank risk-takingECB

Bond Traders Rule Out April Rate Rise as Fed Forecasters on HoldBB
Fed caught in 'negative feedback loop,' Goldman's Beinner says * Treasuries tumble on improved outlook for jobs, inflation

FOMC previewDanske Bank
June hike unlikely as Yellen emphasises downside risks

Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed's Inflation FailView / BB
The central bank may be losing its grip on inflation expectations.

FOMC previewMarc Chandler
Global Tensions Lessened, but Bound to Increase Ahead of June FOMC Meeting

FX: USD strikes backNordea
The short term odds favour USD; if rates rise sharply - USD strength temporary, if rates fall - we could see another lasting bull run. Positioning not universal - CHF and JPY best shorts, while GBP good to buy...

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

FOMC and BoJ meetings this week, GDP flash estimates * This week: A cautious FOMC, more action from BoJ and flash GDPs * Worst weekly selloff in Bunds and Treasuries * GBP continues to rise

Morning MarketsTF
Equity markets across Asia started the week on a sour note as an embattled yen continues to weaken against the dollar and traders awaited the week's standout event - Thursday's Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Pares Pre-Weekend Gains Against Euro and Yen

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Monday morning bullet points

Daily ShotTF
The risks of the UK leaving the European Union via a June referendum are weighing on British investment and job creation, and UK sovereign credit default swap spreads have widened. Short GBP positions are building up. Elsewhere, US manufacturing is in its worst shape since 2009, according to Markit Economics, and the futures-implied probability of a US rate hike is seen at 20%, though some believe it should be higher.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Obama warns UK would be “in the back of the queue” for trade talks in the event of Brexit * Home Secretary admits EU makes it harder to control immigration as Justice Secretary says EU membership poses threat to UK’s public services * Gove: If we vote to stay in the EU, we accept losing our veto forever * Obama says EU-US trade deal may not be concluded “for quite some time” unless it is wrapped up before he leaves office * Far-right candidate wins first round of Austrian presidential election * EU finance ministers split on tax transparency plans * UK to discuss deploying naval patrols in Libyan waters with US and key EU partners * Greece examines contingent legislation in effort to complete current bailout review

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Far-right rises in Austria — Obama in Europe — Tusk risk

Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ


FX UpdateTF
A huge rally in USDJPY on Friday may have been more inspired by record JPY longs more than real anticipation of new BoJ easing this week. Elsewhere a rally in sterling also looks linked to positioning ahead of this week’s two key market events Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Thursday’s BoJ announcement.

From the FloorTF
The Bank of Japan may finally be waking up to the fact that without fiscal support it really can't do much on its own as yen strength once again begins to gather before a pivotal meeting on Thursday.

Tällä viikolla luvassa Fedin kokous ja USA:n BKT-luvut: Fed nostaa vasta jouluksi * Euroalueen talouskasvu kiihtyy hivenen * Japanin keskuspankki todennäköisesti kasvattaa osto-ohjelmaansa torstaina

Jan Hurri: EKP lapioi rahaa yrityksille, viis markkinataloudestaTalSa
Euroalueen keskuspankit alkavat pian lapioida uunituoretta rahaa eurovaltioiden ja pankkien lisäksi suoraan yrityksille. Mitä EKP rahakokeillaan saakaan aikaan, tuskin se edistää markkinataloutta. EU-sopimusten mukaan pitäisi.