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UK Economic Outlook: Brexit vote clouding the prospects – Nordea
The UK economic recovery is set to slow further in 2016 and 2017 as capacity constraints start to bite. While inflation is currently negligible, it is forecast to reach the 2% target in early 2017. We therefore expect the first Bank of England rate hike in Q4 this year. This should be positive for the GBP. For now, however, the Brexit vote is clouding the outlook for everything. We expect no Brexit, but the outcome of the EU referendum is too close to call.
Economically liberal approaches to trade, regulation and immigration essential to prosperity in event of Brexit – Open Europe
Blaming Draghi Finally Unites Merkel's Fractious Coalition - BB
GACS, ATLAS, the EC and the ECB – Jonathan Algar
Some light notes on the political economy of Italian NPLs
Helicopter money: Views of leading economists – vox
Helicopter money is frequently in the headlines but frequently misunderstood. This column reviews the VoxEU columns that have – since 2010 – provided research-based policy analysis of this ‘beyond unconventional’ policy.
FX: G20 Shanghaied the JPY, time to fuel the helicopters? – Nordea
Less “FX warfare” sounds like a good deal until you realise you’re the one stuck with a too strong currency. Did Bank of Japan lose control of the JPY as a result of the G20? With a deflationary impulse from the JPY looming, could BOJ throw the G20 over board, or start fuelling its helicopters?
OPEC Warns of Deeper Cuts to Oil Demand Forecast on Slowdown – BB
IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- April 2016 – IMF
IMF Warns of Threats to Financial Stability – IMF
Risks have risen in advanced economies, remain high in emerging markets * Market turmoil reflected setbacks to growth, greater uncertainty, weaker confidence * More balanced, potent policy mix can expand global output by extra 2 percent
Warning Signs as Global Financial Risks Increase – iMFdirect
Act Now, Act Together – iMFdirect
IMF homes on the eurozone's weakest link: Italy – The Guardian
Bad loans in Italy account for more than a third of the €900bn total of non-performing loans on the books of eurozone banks
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Chinese exports higher, Oil hits yearly high, yields higher * Rebound in US retail sales * French auction weighed heavily on bonds sending yields higher * Oil rises to yearly high benefitting commodity currencies
Morning Markets – TF
Very impressive trade data out of China and a barnstorming oil rally spurred Asian equities to one of their best days of the year as a largely gloomy IMF report on global growth was neatly sidestepped to at least partially revive risk-on sentiment.
Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
US Dollar Comes Back Bid
Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Would you lend money to this man?
Daily Market Comment – Polemic’s Pains
'That shouldnt happen' - The most dangerous type of move.
Daily Shot – TF
China's exports grew in March at the fastest rate in a year exceeding some analysts' forecasts and copper prices jumped in response to the strong Chinese trade data. Crude oil hit a 2016 high. And Germany's Schaeuble continues to criticise the European Central Bank's negative rate policy.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
New Open Europe report: A blueprint for successful trade, immigration and regulation in the event of Brexit * IMF: Brexit could pose major challenges for both the UK and the rest of Europe * Bundesbank chief defends ECB policies as “appropriate at this juncture” * EU Commission in push to force large companies to disclose more tax details * Migration Observatory: Six EU countries make up 80% of increase in EU migration * Head of Eurozone bailout fund: Talks between Greece and lenders could wrap up “over the next four weeks” * France announces extra savings to hit deficit targets * EU gives Greece two weeks to beef up its external border * EU could impose visa restrictions on travel from US and Canadian citizens by the summer * ECR group expels remaining AfD member * Merkel’s party slides another point in the polls
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Greece lightning — Privacy’s big day — Brexit silence
US Open – ZH
Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data; Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016
Frontrunning – ZH
From the Floor – TF
Optimism about a production-freeze deal at this weekend's meeting of oil producers drove crude oil above its 200-day moving average overnight and spread good cheer across Asian markets on Wednesday. The feelgood factor was also helped by strong trade data from China.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Italian pankkien hartiat koetukselle * Kiinan ulkomaankauppaluvut tarjosivat myönteisen yllätyksen * Ruotsin inflaatio yllätti Riksbankin * Valtionlainakorot kohosivat eilen tasaisesti sekä USA:ssa että euroalueella