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EUROPE
Euro Area Politics: It’ll Be Alright on the Night – Pictet
The political
temperature is rising in the euro area. But in the short term at least, we
believe political developments could actually boost sentiment
Europe’s Welcome Attempt to Harmonize Rules on
Asylum Seekers – PIIE
Angela Merkel’s Sultanic
bargain – Politico
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
doesn’t have a sense of humor. Nor, to judge by her decision to allow a
comedian’s prosecution, does the German chancellor.
Greece Q&A: Tricky talks again, but Grexit
is no option – Nordea
Unsurprisingly Greece is
back in the headlines. This time it is the differences between the IMF and the
European Commission that are causing most strains, along with the familiar slow
pace of programme implementation in Greece. A compromise will likely be found
within the next few weeks, but the political costs could be considerable. This
time, the topic is unlikely to become a major driver for financial markets, but
it may still cause short-lived spikes of volatility.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB’s latest gimmick: Cash for loans – voxeu
The ECB recently
announced a new monetary operation – targeted longer-term refinancing
operations, or TLTRO II – that essentially subsidises bank loans to the real
economy. This column argues that this ‘cash for loans’ scheme, which might cost
up to €24 billion, is unlikely to affect the real economy greatly. This is
because banks can easily window dress their loans to qualify. TLTRO II also
tests the limits of the ECB’s mandate by stepping into the fiscal policy space.
Draghi Seen Putting ECB Stimulus Back on Agenda
After Summer – BB
Analysts say ECB could
add asset purchases or cut rates again * Helicopter money not seen as realistic
option any time soon
Behind Wolfgang Schäuble’s attack on the ECB – Politico
Wolfgang Münchau: Defending German model
threatens European stability – FT
In a monetary union, no
government is supposed to question the independence of the central bank
Its ideology, stupid – Simon Wren-Lewis
The biggest technical
problem is an obsession with inappropriate collective fiscal consolidation
(austerity). In the Eurozone the ECB is being forced to try negative interest
rates because it is having to undo the impact of fiscal consolidation. And the
man most responsible for this obsession is Schäuble.
Credit Suisse: Germany Is Asking for a Different
Kind of Bailout – BB
Germany's savers should
save themselves, say the analysts.
ECB Preview: Re-opening the door to rate cuts – Danske
Bank
http://www.danskebank.com/en-uk/ci/Products-Services/Markets/Research/Documents/ECB_Preview_180416.pdf
Draghi Brings German Olive Branch Back to ECB
Bruised by Row – BB
German finance minister
Schaeuble dines with ‘friend’ Draghi * Attacks on ECB likely to continue as
pensioners burdened
Bond Market to Periphery Politicians: You Don't
Matter – BB
Europe's Own Banker Seeks Ways to Put Draghi's
Money to Good Use – BB
European Investment Bank
president Hoyer speaks in interview * `Juncker plan' for investment proceeding
faster than expected
ECB policy meeting: different things to worry
about – Pictet
OTHER
DOHA
TALKS
Futile Doha talks won’t
freeze oil price recovery – Danske
Bank
Collapse in oil freeze
talks can push oil prices lower – Nordea
Analysts Respond To Doha
Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment" – ZH
Oil prices slide after
freeze deal failure – Reuters
5 Questions for Oil
Markets After the Doha Meeting – WSJ
Brent Crude Soars 8% Off
Lows - Erases Entire Post-Doha Drop – ZH
IMF
MEETING
Transcript of G-24 Press
Briefing – IMF
Transcript: Press
Briefing of the Managing Director – IMF
Statement by Mario
Draghi – IMF
El-Erian: G-20 Delivers Empty Warning on Global
Economy – View
/ BB
A correct assessment of
the deteriorating global economy wasn't backed up by new policies.
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Oil price and equities
down after breakdown of Doha talks * Risk-off ahead of ECB and Riksbank
meetings on Thursday * Oil price and global risk sentiment to drive bond yields
this week * Commodity-related currencies suffering
Morning Markets – TF
The failure in Doha to
reach an agreement on an oil production freeze has sent crude into a
precipitous slide and brought risk-off firmly back into the vista as we enter
the European open.
Daily Market Comment – Marc
Chandler
Doha Failure Sets Tone
Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Your view of the broader
significance of this weekend's failed Doha summit directly relates, in all
likelihood, to your pre-existing view on asset markets.
Daily Comment – Polemic’s
Pains
The oil talks in Doha
have resulted in no agreement. The response in markets is expectant of a
collapse in oil prices, some mentioning $30 again, and a fall in all things
'risk’ on Monday morning.
Daily Shot – TF
Merrill Lynch's April
investor survey puts Brexit as the number one concern over the next 12 months
and the latest Telegraph poll shows even odds on Britain leaving the European
Union via its June referendum. Elsewhere the meeting of Opec and non-Opec oil
producers in Doha ended without a production-freeze deal at the weekend so oil
prices slid and those betting long on the yen got it right.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Treasury
analysis warns UK GDP would be 6% smaller post Brexit even with Canadian-style
free trade agreement * French Economy Minister: We have to be clear that Brexit
would have consequences * Talks between Greece and creditors resume today but
no deal expected this week * Cleppe: EU must respect Dutch voters’ verdict in
Ukraine referendum * Fox: Lack of Brexit contingency planning “irresponsible
and contrary to national interest” * Renzi floats ‘EU migration bonds’ to fund
crisis response as Orbán to lobbies EU to adopt ‘Schengen 2.0’ plan * Boris:
Economic migration can be positive, but needs to be controlled * CSU MP demands
German follows Draghi as ECB President * Google warns over EU regulation of new
technologies
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Renzi in the spotlight —
Migration minefield — Referendum roundup
US Open – ZH
Futures Wipe Out Most
Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude
Frontrunning – ZH
From the Floor – TF
The combination of the
Doha summit's failure the G20's reluctance to help rein in a runway yen and two
earthquakes in the heavily industrial Kyushu region has backed Japan into a
corner.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Draghin
korjausliike * Öljysopimuksen kaatuminen painaa öljymarkkinoita * USA:n
teollisuustuotanto tuotti selkeän pettymyksen * Tällä viikolla luvassa EKP:n ja
Riksbankin kokoukset