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Monday, April 18

18th Apr - War over ECB, Doha, IMF

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Euro Area Politics: It’ll Be Alright on the NightPictet
The political temperature is rising in the euro area. But in the short term at least, we believe political developments could actually boost sentiment

Europe’s Welcome Attempt to Harmonize Rules on Asylum SeekersPIIE

Angela Merkel’s Sultanic bargainPolitico
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan doesn’t have a sense of humor. Nor, to judge by her decision to allow a comedian’s prosecution, does the German chancellor.

Greece Q&A: Tricky talks again, but Grexit is no optionNordea
Unsurprisingly Greece is back in the headlines. This time it is the differences between the IMF and the European Commission that are causing most strains, along with the familiar slow pace of programme implementation in Greece. A compromise will likely be found within the next few weeks, but the political costs could be considerable. This time, the topic is unlikely to become a major driver for financial markets, but it may still cause short-lived spikes of volatility.

The ECB’s latest gimmick: Cash for loansvoxeu
The ECB recently announced a new monetary operation – targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO II – that essentially subsidises bank loans to the real economy. This column argues that this ‘cash for loans’ scheme, which might cost up to €24 billion, is unlikely to affect the real economy greatly. This is because banks can easily window dress their loans to qualify. TLTRO II also tests the limits of the ECB’s mandate by stepping into the fiscal policy space.

Draghi Seen Putting ECB Stimulus Back on Agenda After SummerBB
Analysts say ECB could add asset purchases or cut rates again * Helicopter money not seen as realistic option any time soon

Behind Wolfgang Schäuble’s attack on the ECBPolitico

Wolfgang Münchau: Defending German model threatens European stability FT
In a monetary union, no government is supposed to question the independence of the central bank

Its ideology, stupidSimon Wren-Lewis
The biggest technical problem is an obsession with inappropriate collective fiscal consolidation (austerity). In the Eurozone the ECB is being forced to try negative interest rates because it is having to undo the impact of fiscal consolidation. And the man most responsible for this obsession is Schäuble. 

Credit Suisse: Germany Is Asking for a Different Kind of BailoutBB
Germany's savers should save themselves, say the analysts.

ECB Preview: Re-opening the door to rate cutsDanske Bank

Draghi Brings German Olive Branch Back to ECB Bruised by RowBB
German finance minister Schaeuble dines with ‘friend’ Draghi * Attacks on ECB likely to continue as pensioners burdened

Bond Market to Periphery Politicians: You Don't MatterBB

Europe's Own Banker Seeks Ways to Put Draghi's Money to Good UseBB
European Investment Bank president Hoyer speaks in interview * `Juncker plan' for investment proceeding faster than expected

ECB policy meeting: different things to worry aboutPictet

Futile Doha talks won’t freeze oil price recovery – Danske Bank
Collapse in oil freeze talks can push oil prices lower – Nordea
Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment" – ZH
Oil prices slide after freeze deal failure – Reuters
5 Questions for Oil Markets After the Doha Meeting – WSJ
Brent Crude Soars 8% Off Lows - Erases Entire Post-Doha Drop – ZH

Transcript of G-24 Press Briefing – IMF
Transcript: Press Briefing of the Managing Director – IMF
Statement by Mario Draghi – IMF

El-Erian: G-20 Delivers Empty Warning on Global EconomyView / BB
A correct assessment of the deteriorating global economy wasn't backed up by new policies.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil price and equities down after breakdown of Doha talks * Risk-off ahead of ECB and Riksbank meetings on Thursday * Oil price and global risk sentiment to drive bond yields this week * Commodity-related currencies suffering

Morning MarketsTF
The failure in Doha to reach an agreement on an oil production freeze has sent crude into a precipitous slide and brought risk-off firmly back into the vista as we enter the European open.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Doha Failure Sets Tone

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Your view of the broader significance of this weekend's failed Doha summit directly relates, in all likelihood, to your pre-existing view on asset markets.

Daily CommentPolemic’s Pains
The oil talks in Doha have resulted in no agreement. The response in markets is expectant of a collapse in oil prices, some mentioning $30 again, and a fall in all things 'risk’ on Monday morning.

Daily ShotTF
Merrill Lynch's April investor survey puts Brexit as the number one concern over the next 12 months and the latest Telegraph poll shows even odds on Britain leaving the European Union via its June referendum. Elsewhere the meeting of Opec and non-Opec oil producers in Doha ended without a production-freeze deal at the weekend so oil prices slid and those betting long on the yen got it right.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Treasury analysis warns UK GDP would be 6% smaller post Brexit even with Canadian-style free trade agreement * French Economy Minister: We have to be clear that Brexit would have consequences * Talks between Greece and creditors resume today but no deal expected this week * Cleppe: EU must respect Dutch voters’ verdict in Ukraine referendum * Fox: Lack of Brexit contingency planning “irresponsible and contrary to national interest” * Renzi floats ‘EU migration bonds’ to fund crisis response as Orbán to lobbies EU to adopt ‘Schengen 2.0’ plan * Boris: Economic migration can be positive, but needs to be controlled * CSU MP demands German follows Draghi as ECB President * Google warns over EU regulation of new technologies

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Renzi in the spotlight — Migration minefield — Referendum roundup

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude


From the FloorTF

The combination of the Doha summit's failure the G20's reluctance to help rein in a runway yen and two earthquakes in the heavily industrial Kyushu region has backed Japan into a corner.

Draghin korjausliike * Öljysopimuksen kaatuminen painaa öljymarkkinoita * USA:n teollisuustuotanto tuotti selkeän pettymyksen * Tällä viikolla luvassa EKP:n ja Riksbankin kokoukset